Trump on NATO: We have never needed them. We have never needed asked anything of them. You know they say they sent troops to Afghanistan, and they did. They stayed a little back, little off the frontlines.

Future generations will never understand the magnitude of this downgrade

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BREAKING: US–IRAN DRAFT DEAL FRAMEWORK REVEALED • IRAN AGREES NOT TO DEVELOP OR ACQUIRE NUCLEAR WEAPONS • US AND IRAN AGREE TO HALT HOSTILITIES ACROSS THE REGION, INCLUDING IN LEBANON • IRAN TO GUARANTEE FREE AND SAFE COMMERCIAL SHIPPING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ FOR 60 DAYS • US TO RELEASE FROZEN IRANIAN ASSETS ONCE THE AGREEMENT TAKES EFFECT • US TO GRANT TEMPORARY SANCTIONS WAIVERS ALLOWING IRAN TO EXPORT OIL DURING NEGOTIATIONS • IRAN TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT NUCLEAR PROGRAM WHILE TALKS CONTINUE • BOTH SIDES TO ADDRESS IRAN'S ENRICHED URANIUM STOCKPILE IN FUTURE NEGOTIATIONS • US TO AVOID NEW SANCTIONS AND MAJOR MILITARY BUILDUPS IN THE REGION DURING TALKS • 60 DAYS OF NEGOTIATIONS PLANNED TO REACH A FINAL AGREEMENT • OMAN AND GULF STATES TO PARTICIPATE IN TALKS ON MARITIME SECURITY AND SHIPPING ARRANGEMENTS • FINAL DEAL COULD SEE THE US WITHDRAW ITS FORCES WITHIN 30 DAYS • FINAL DEAL COULD RESULT IN THE LIFTING OF ALL US SANCTIONS ON IRAN • PROPOSED FINAL AGREEMENT INCLUDES A $300 BILLION RECONSTRUCTION FUND FOR IRAN • POTENTIAL DEAL WOULD REPRESENT ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT US–IRAN DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGHS IN DECADES SOURCE: N12 NEWS

IRAN SAYS NO DEAL WILL BE SIGNED BY TRUMP DEADLINE: FARS

3,600 seconds until eternal glory 🏆 #LeMans24 #FeelLeMans #WEC

🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: Trump: I have cancelled scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening.

⚠️ Trump: U.S. Will Seize Kharg Island and Take Total Control of Iran’s Oil and Gas

BREAKING: President Trump says "I love the inflation" and explains why after US CPI inflation rises to 4.2%. Trump also announces that the US has been taking oil from Iran, including 22 ships of oil "last night."

🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: Trump on Iran: They've taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay price.

📣 Attn STIR traders and SERFF enjoyers! Finer tick granularity is coming to SOFR-Fed Funds (SERFF) spreads. Beginning next Monday, June 15, SR1-ZQ spreads will trade in 0.25 increments across all contract months.

And this is happening DESPITE positive gamma this is why we spent so much time over the last 6 weeks warning you about spot-up/vol-up environments because the odds of a mechanical snapback in that type of regime are HIGH

I told you so.

For people who are worried about the market today, I get it. This stuff is very stressful. So I put together a chart of all of the times the VIX (the "fear index" of the market) was up over 30% in a day (like today) in the past ten years. 23 out of 25 instances the market was higher one month later. The only two times it wasn't was Feb 2020 when Covid hit the economy in March 2020. What is the underlying message? When people are afraid, they make bad decisions. Do the opposite. Attached is a chart summarizing my results.

Happy Friday, everyone.