Had to write about the ridiculous heat and update my list of UK highest temperature date records (hottest so early in the year): timjoslin.org/index.php/2026… Moral: prepare for worse!

I think we can safely assume that the next truly compelling episode in Labour’s real-time soap opera, entitled “Get Starmer”, will be the by-election in Makerfield. Subject to Labour’s ruling NEC allowing Andy Burnham to stand there - and Downing St says the prime minister has dropped his objections, so permission will be given - Burnham’s sotto voce campaign slogan will be unusual. It will be “Vote Burnham to sack Starmer.” This is both Burnham and Starmer genuinely rolling the dice. That’s not just because Burnham is way more popular than Starmer among Labour members and trade union leaders, and probably more popular among MPs too. It’s because Burnham and his fans characterise him as the answer to Farage and Reform. And on the basis of last week’s local election results, Makerfield is now a Reform heartland, having previously been part of the Labour Red Wall. So if Burnham loses, maybe he’s not the answer to all Labour’s woes, and Starmer survives - possibly even to fight the next election (though his critics believe Streeting and Rayner would precipitate a leadership election even after a Burnham defeat). But if Burnham wins, Starmer should book the removal vans as soon as the Makerfield count is over. Because those members, MPs and trade union leaders would carry Burnham shoulder-high into Number 10, and Starmer would be binned. So Starmer seems to be in the uncomfortable position of being a bystander in the events that will shape his own destiny. And as for the country, there are weeks more of destabilising uncertainty about who is really in charge, or will be running this place just weeks from now. Makerfield will make history, one way or another.