President, @LawReformInst; previously executive director @uniformlaws, attorney @StateDept
Joined January 2016
- Tweets 402
- Following 602
- Followers 291
- Likes 3,243
68 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
14 Oct 2025
Ever wondered how U.S. export controls apply to AI model outputs? Excited to make our first draft report @LawReformInst available for comments.
14 Oct 2025
Our report on AI Outputs and National Security Controls is now out for comments-- link below. It addresses how the U.S. export control system applies to AI model outputs, as well as why (and how) the regime needs to be fixed. Comments are welcome. (1/N)
1
4
1,536
Tim Schnabel retweeted
“With July 4th looming, it’s tragically poetic that the country is again facing the question of how to constrain the exercise of arbitrary power.
The Trump administration’s decision — based on questionable / undisclosed justifications — to block foreign nationals from using two Anthropic models indicates that AI governance is being shaped by actors who wield incredible influence over this critical domain and are yet subject to few effective constraints.
This episode strengthens the case for Congress to step up and pass an AI governance framework that will reduce the frequency with which AI policy is breaking news.”
my latest via @CatoInstitute
2
4
15
494
Yes! Also, there's a pretty obvious/available off-ramp (TCPs), if BIS and DDTC would issue some guidance. justsecurity.org/126643/ai-m…
Uhhh so incidentally, does anyone have a plan to prevent all the non-US citizen AI scientists from going to join foreign labs after they get bored of playing Wordle at work for a month, or are we just sort of planning on having the greatest counterproliferation failure since we deported Qian Xuesen in 1955 and gave Mao a rocket program?
1
9
899
Could be US person controls? Need to see that letter.
It’s been a while since I’ve written about this, but if this is all happening under 15 CFR 744.6 then I think it has to be about CBRN or missile risks, foreign adversary military intelligence stuff, or chips. IIRC those are the only things you can send an is informed letter about under 744.6.
And of those bio seems the most likely here by a wide margin
2
169
At some point, a frontier model is going to be really good at, e.g., designing new materials. Thus, I hope we get our thoughts about export controls and model outputs sorted out before a model can help design next-gen stealth tech. Just an example.
1
2
188
Jun 13
This tidbit from the Axios story reminded me of what Sen. Warner said (revealed?) earlier this week.
Jun 11
On Mythos, from @MarkWarner in this morning's Senate Banking hearing: "the head of the NSA and Cyber Command came and said this tool broke into almost all of our classified systems, not in weeks, but in hours"; I had not seen that mentioned elsewhere?
6
1,921
Unless this changes, OpenAI researchers on visas need to plan for the fact they’ll probably lose access to internal models, and therefore their ability to do their jobs moving forward, sometime in the next couple months.
I hope the company acts to prevent that.
12
32
493
71,568
Jun 13
Probably not bio after all!
Jun 13
Update: Anthropic has changed the link. It now goes to a cybersecurity part of the page: deploymentsafety.openai.com/…
1
193
Jun 13
Anthropic's blog, in saying "the level of capability displayed there is widely available from other models (including OpenAI’s GPT-5.5)," links to an OpenAI page that refers to "the biothreat creation process." Suggests the export issue involved that type of info?
4
10
985
Jun 13
Update: Anthropic has changed the link. It now goes to a cybersecurity part of the page: deploymentsafety.openai.com/…
3
426
Jun 13
See this article for more on how export controls apply in the AIxBio space: lawfaremedia.org/article/how…
1
131
Jun 13
The application of deemed export rules to AI model outputs -- including within frontier labs -- is a big problem. But the solution needs to be one that applies across the board and actually fixes the underlying problem.
1
1
21
7,854
Tim Schnabel retweeted
Jun 13
great essay, although today's announcements makes me feel the expiration date for europe is 2026, not 2031
Jun 11
Most of Europe has not yet absorbed what AI is about to do to us. The few who have are not saying it loudly enough.
We wrote Europe 2031: a five-year scenario of the continent's slide into irrelevance, how AI is driving it, and what can still be done to change course.
6
12
142
10,548
Tim Schnabel retweeted
Jun 13
The US government just ordered Anthropic to suspend all foreign-national access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5, inside or outside the US.
As a reminder, huge percentages of technical employees at all the frontier AI labs (including Anthropic) are likely foreign nationals.
4
20
78
8,619
Tim Schnabel retweeted
Jun 13
Just occurred to me that Anthropic employees who are not US persons will not be able to use Fable/Mythos, making this plausibly (and to be clear, accidentally) the first regulation on recursive self-improvement.
Jun 13
If this is true, it is just baffling. An administration whose posture is that we *should* export advanced AI chips to China, which also wants to ban… Britain (and every other non-American on Earth)… from using our best models? I have no words.
32
64
931
141,306
Jun 13
We need to see the actual letter, but if it does relate to model outputs rather than weights, all frontier model companies would likely be affected-- if the logic is applied consistently. All frontier models can probably output export-controlled information.
Jun 13
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.
The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.
Access to all other Claude models is not affected.
We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.
Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
1
1
2
210
Jun 13
So when Anthropic says "If this standard was applied across the industry, we believe it would essentially halt all new model deployments for all frontier model providers," they're probably right.
1
1
2
141
Jun 13
I wish someone tried to warn people about this issue last year! justsecurity.org/126643/ai-m…
1
6
890
Jun 13
We need to see the letter. In theory, if the restrictions apply to "all foreign persons within the country" as the article says, it suggests they're focusing on "deemed exports" of "technology" such as model outputs.
Scoop: Trump admin blocks foreign access to Anthropic's most powerful AI axios.com/2026/06/12/anthrop…
1
3
400
Tim Schnabel retweeted
Jun 13
Scoop: Anthropic is now facing export controls for its most advanced models.
It will need a license to export to any location outside of the U.S. and to all foreign persons within the country.
w/@axiosalex
axios.com/2026/06/12/anthrop…
1
21
77
21,946