🏀 Xs & Os • Team & Agent Consulting • @The_BBall_Index Founder • Lakers Exceptionalism Pod

Joined May 2012
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Hey @Lakers I have LA at 0.94 ePPP vs Ice defense as the major screen coverage type this past season (not good)
One of our favorite ways to attack ICE: Reject wide. Not to simply escape the coverage, but to hold the big in the action, trigger the weakside to move, and create unsupported screening actions away from the ball. This week’s newsletter looks at how the wide reject can become more than an ICE counter, it can become an offensive trigger. 🗞newsletter.slappinglass.com/…
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Cranjis McBasketball retweeted
Jose Alvarado is very good at generating on-ball steals (Pickpocket Rating) Check out our Player Profiles with a BBall Index Subscription. You can look up your favorite player for just 5 bucks a month. Link in bio
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There have only been 33 games over the last 2 seasons with 50% OOR, 50% Coverage Fit, & 50% Help Counter Rates from LA. I don't think that's a particularly high bar, but LA has a 25-8 record (76% Win Rate) with a 119.6 ORtg in those games.
Lakers half court offensive KPIs year over year: Organized Offense Rate: 54% ➡️ 53% Set Design Score: 3.2 📉 2.9 P&R/DHO Coverage Fit: 56% ➡️ 55% Iso/Post Help Counter Rate: 47% 📉 40% Similar rates of structure and 🪨📄✂️ win % using ball screens. Worse sets & 1v1 counters.
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One change I’d like to see next season from the Lakers is entering the playoffs with more reps under their belt doing something other than their default on defense. They were towards the top of the league in their lack of balance in coverages and the NBA's heaviest switch defense. And had 1 base iso help D they leaned heavily on. Game 1 vs Houston was the first time we saw LA do something other than switch most often among coverage options in 86 days. When you face OKC & they're a machine against switching but have holes vs other coverages, you want to be prepared to do something other than switch. You want to have worked through the kinks & installed advanced options within those. Not just drop 101 or soft hedge 101 type defense. Even w/injuries faced I'd rather they still work through that process vs try to skip steps.
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Lakers half court offensive KPIs year over year: Organized Offense Rate: 54% ➡️ 53% Set Design Score: 3.2 📉 2.9 P&R/DHO Coverage Fit: 56% ➡️ 55% Iso/Post Help Counter Rate: 47% 📉 40% Similar rates of structure and 🪨📄✂️ win % using ball screens. Worse sets & 1v1 counters.
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Within the P&R/DHO Coverage Fit being the ~same we saw weaknesses continue to be weaknesses: 36% vs drop rose to 42% 53% vs switching dropped to 47% 92% vs hedging/blitzing dropped to 82%
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Let's amend that - Dylan Harper has been THE best rookie at pressuring the rim in the last 13 NBA seasons ⬆️ Better difficulty-adjusted finishing ➡️ Higher rate of rim self-creation He ranked 13th this season among all NBA players in Finishing Talent, best among non-starters.
Dylan Harper was the rookie pressuring the rim best this past season ⬆️ Better difficulty-adjusted finishing ➡️ Higher rate of rim self-creation bball-index.com/headshots-sc…
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Dylan Harper was the rookie pressuring the rim best this past season ⬆️ Better difficulty-adjusted finishing ➡️ Higher rate of rim self-creation bball-index.com/headshots-sc…
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It’s been fun this season watching all the goodness I liked from the Lakers playbook under Darvin Ham, but with actual good playcall rates. Jent was Ham’s OC. Strong playbook and great tactics that helped bring LA to a WCF during that tenure.
Mike Brown spends time in his press conference campaigning for associate head coach Chris Jent. “He will help your team at the highest level.” Knicks gravitated toward that selflessness in Brown’s first year here. Some similarities between Knicks/Brown & Yankees/1996 Joe Torre
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Dylan Harper’s regular season impact/talent/optimization ranks this season among rotation rookies: Aggregate Impact: 4th - Offensive: 2nd - Defensive: 10th Impact Per 100 Possessions: 2nd - O: 3rd - D 7th Talent: 8th - O: 12th - D: 11th Optimization: 1st - O: 2nd - D: 12th
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99th percentile rate of rim self-creation 97th percentile difficulty-adjusted shooting at the rim is what you dream of. The C- FG% is held down by F quality. The next step for Harper as a finisher is raising that D foul drawn rate.
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Death, taxes, Kendrick Nunn in foul trouble every game since he joined Pana
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The NBA's most effective offensive lineups this season, using Defensive Talent data to adjust for the quality of opposing lineups faced stabilizing small samples. I need to dedicate some time to watching that Hornets group.
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Luka and Austin advanced WOWY data Data on the left is raw data. On the right substitutes in expected points for actuals for a higher quality view of how the team played.
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The Lakers went bananas in clutch time and stole some wins to boost their win % a good bit above their quality of play. This should inform "how much needs to improve" analysis. LA's ranks: Win %: 6th - - - - - DPM: 12th - LEBRON: 14th Net Rating: 14th EPM: 14th
The Lakers in the clutch this regular season: Opponents 45.9% eFG% (27% on 3s!) would've ranked 1st for the full year, w/a gap on 2nd as large as the actual 1st place team was to 29th 42.1% OReb% would be the all-time NBA record on a full year (from the team ranking 24th on the full year) The 9.1% TOV% would've been 1st & w/a gap on 2nd as large as the current gap from 1st to 27th Crazy things happen in 93 minute samples
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There's goodness in the middle between those. LA is already upgrading facilities, support staff, & executives. Do the same with coaching. You'll see more winning at the scheme & tactics margins. LA has proof of concept w/JJ Luka as a younger core $$ in a way they didn't when first assembling this group.
Replying to @Tim_NBA
Do you think for the lakers to get the most of the Luka era it would be smart to start fresh (fire JJ for Chris Jent as HC, fire Rob for a competent POBO) or do we just roll the dice and hope it fixes itself eventually ?
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Trey Murphy's impact, talent, & optimization data. He was poorly equipped for success as a Wing Stopper, which is why the Defensive Talent took a dive last season. His D-LEBRON also dropped (as expected). He's a Helper on defense (same role as Luka) making him a rough fit in LA
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He's solid on offense and is coming from some moderately positive optimization on that end. He's impactful enough (& profiles as such) that his defense is worth it overall. For a team that can easily slot him in as a Helper he's an interesting add.
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The 9 Roll & Cut Bigs that have joined Luka in their careers saw an average Offensive Optimization change of 0.03 (nothing). I don't think for that role we can do the "Luka will fix him" thing. Fans did this with bleh players over and over again for the Bron AD teams and then after they didn't work would say it again for the next crop. This feels the same.
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Here's how Austin Reaves has stacked up in terms of: 🟡 Impact: WAR for aggregate, LEBRON and its components to look per 100 possessions 🟣 Talent: the expected impact based on his roles & usage, physical tools, & skill data 🟡 Optimization: difference between Impact & Talent
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