Talking about Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, plus I Bonds and Treasurys in general, on the Tipswatch.com site, since March 2011.
Joined October 2013
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874 Photos and videos
Thursday's 5-year TIPS reopening auction comes amid a week of swirling news: War or peace? Fed signals? Be ready for volatility. tipswatch.com/2026/06/14/5-y…
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The most depressing, but also most obvious, headline of the week: "Congress has lost its grip on funding the government" (gift article) wapo.st/4xJMaGj
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Jun 13
Wolfstreet is raising a point I have been hitting on: Short-term T-bills and money markets are now yielding less than the U.S. inflation rate. Not a good situation for savers if this continues. wolfstreet.com/2026/06/12/mo…
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Jun 12
Will I buy SpaceX stock after the open? Hell, no. But people are going to make a lot of money. Very quickly. I am just not jumping into that shark tank.
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Tipswatch retweeted
Jun 11
Producer Prices in the US rose 4.7% per year over the last 5 years and nearly 26% in total.
2% inflation is a myth.
They won't do it, but the Fed should be hiking rates at the FOMC meeting next week.
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Jun 11
Today's T-bill auction results: 4-week, investment rate of 3.655%, down from 3.676% last week. 8-week, investment rate of 3.681%, same as last week.
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Jun 11
Also today, reopening auction of 30-year Treasury bond: High yield of 5.020%, down from 5.046% last month. Demand might have been a bit weak.
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Tipswatch retweeted
Jun 11
Jun 10
Tomorrow's News Today...
BREAKING: THE ECB HIKES INTEREST RATES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2023. 25 BPS INCREASE UP TO 2.25%. CITES ONGOING WAR IN IRAN, SURGING ENERGY PRICES, AND THE HIGHEST EUROZONE INFLATION RATE (3.2%) SINCE SEPTEMBER 2023.
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Jun 11
Producer Price numbers look very bad, again. Taking out food and energy helps, but we all need food and energy.
Jun 11
US PPI Final Demand (M/M) May: 1.1% (est 0.7%; prev 1.4%; prev R 1.1%)
- PPI Final Demand (Y/Y): 6.5% (est 6.4%; prev 6.0%; prev R 5.7%)
- PPI Ex Food And Energy (M/M): 0.4% (est 0.5%; prev 1.0%; prev R 0.7%)
- PPI Ex Food And Energy (Y/Y): 4.9% (est 5.4%; prev 5.2%; prev R 4.9%)
- PPI Ex Food, Energy And Trade (M/M): 0.8% (est 0.4%; prev R 0.5%)
- PPI Ex Food, Energy And Trade (Y/Y): 5.1% (est 4.8%; prev 4.4%)
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Jun 10
Today's T-bill auction result: 17-week, investment rate of 3.761%, up from 3.730% last week.
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Jun 10
Also today, reopening auction of 10-year Treasury note: High yield of 4.538%, up from 4.468% last month.
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Jun 10
U.S. inflation rose to an annual rate of 4.2% in May, highest in three years. (Note the ugly trend.) What does this mean for investors in TIPS and I Bonds? tipswatch.com/2026/06/10/u-s…
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Jun 10
All-items CPI increased 0.5% in May, pushing the annual rate up to 4.2%, highest since April 2023. Core inflation was tamer, at 0.2%, but the annual rate ticked higher to 2.9%. Not good, but met expectations.
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Jun 10
Non-seasonally adjusted inflation was up 0.63% in May, bringing the 2-month (out of six) total for the next I Bond reset to 1.49%, which translates to a variable rate of 2.98%. In just two months.
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Tipswatch retweeted
Jun 9
Tomorrow's CPI headlines are likely to be discouraging. But my new post argues we should look under the headline at the distribution of inflation. So far, the heat is in the tails — narrow categories, not broad-based. Worth a watchful eye.
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Jun 9
Today's T-bill auction results: 6-week, investment rate of 3.665%, down from 3.691% last week. 52-week, investment rate of 3.914%, up from 3.806% last month.
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Jun 9
Also today, auction of 3-year Treasury note: High yield of 4.192%, up from 3.965% last month.
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Jun 9
The May inflation report will be released Wednesday at 8:30 am ET. The consensus calls for all-items at 0.5% for the month and 4.2% for the year. This would be the first time the annual rate hit 4.0% since May 2023.
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Jun 9
FYI, on May 3, 2023, the Federal Reserve raised its federal funds rate 25 basis points to a range of 5.00% to 5.25%. Today's rate is 150 basis points lower.
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