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New users can try the Toad Sports app for free on Apple & Android for a limited time: toadsports.net

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Schwarber has the highest home run probability on the slate at 30.2%. That same 30.2% probability showed value at 279 two days ago. Today he's sitting at 191 on DraftKings, which implies roughly a 34.3% probability. The book has moved well past where the model has him, so the edge is -4.1%. Same player, same probability, completely different situation because the price isn't reflecting value at the current odds. Doesn't mean he can't hit a home run today, it just means those odds aren't worth touching. Juan Soto is the one that stands out today. He projects at 25.0% with 428 on DraftKings. That implies roughly a 19.0% probability. The model has him 6.0% above that, which is one of the larger edges on the slate. Soto at 428 with a 25% probability is a number worth paying attention to. That's the difference between looking at a list of names and actually understanding what you're looking at. Schwarber's name is more recognizable and his probability is higher, but the math isn't there today. Soto is sitting at more than four times your money with the model showing real separation from what the book is pricing. Both of these update throughout the day. Lines move, projections adjust as lineups get confirmed, and the picture can look completely different by first pitch. The people who check early and check back are the ones who catch the best numbers before they disappear. Everything on this list and thousands of other projections across today's full slate are inside the Toad Sports app. Free trial is available on both the Apple and Android app stores. Takes 30 seconds to set up and today's full board is there from the moment you log in. Try The App For Free: apple.co/4huZs1G

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There are wo numbers appear next to every player on this list. The probability and the odds. Most people look at the probability and stop there. That's the wrong place to stop - there is more to look at than just that. Schwarber leads today at 30.3% with 279 on DraftKings. That implies roughly a 26.4% probability. The model has him 3.9% above that. He has been at or near the top of this list multiple days this week and today is one of the cleaner edges we've seen on him. The probability and the price are finally lining up in a way that makes sense. Yordan Alvarez sits at 28.4% today, second highest on the slate. But his odds are at 230 on DraftKings, which implies roughly a 30.3% probability. The book has him priced nearly 2% higher than where the model has him, so the edge is -1.9%. Same situation that has come up with him repeatedly this week. High probability, short price, no value at the current number. That can change. 230 moving to 260 or 270 by first pitch flips the math entirely. It has happened multiple times this week with players in similar spots. Toad Sports users checking back throughout the morning are the ones who catch it when it does. By the time the line moves and everyone else notices, the number is already gone. That's the advantage of having the projections and the edge calculation in one place updating in real time. The list above is a starting point. The app is where you track the movement and decide if the number still makes sense by game time. This is also just a sample. The complete list of value spots across today's slate is inside the app and what's shown here is a fraction of what's available. Free trial is on both the Apple and Android app stores. Download the app, take 30 seconds to set up your account, and today's full slate is yours to go through at no cost. Toad Sports App: apple.co/4huZs1G