The short term bear case for gold is obvious: if inflation reaccelerates and central banks are forced to hike rates again, higher real yields could pressure gold.
The long term bull case is that we’re entering a world of:
• Persistent inflation
• Unsustainable debt levels
• Fiscal deficits that keep expanding
• Central banks diversifying reserves away from USD assets
Gold doesn’t need lower rates to work. It needs declining confidence in fiat currencies and sovereign balance sheets.