Let's talk about tomorrow's severe weather setup.
The general consensus right now seems to be that tomorrow will flop because the last few setups have. And honestly? It could. But let's get into the specifics.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a cold front during the afternoon hours, right around peak heating. Models are showing dew points well into the 70s by this point (aka humid as hell), which translates into some pretty healthy instability in the 2,000 J/kg range. In simple terms: storms would have plenty to feast on.
The problemo with this forecast is the morning convection. The models don't have a great handle on it, and they probably won't until it actually starts happening. If we end up with widespread showers and storms during the morning, the atmosphere could become stabilized and significantly reduce the severe weather threat. However, if we only see some scattered "meh" showers that aren't widespread, then the atmosphere will have plenty of time to recover and build up the fuel storms need later in the day.
If the forecast stands as it is right now, then our main threat will be collapsing thunderstorms that produce 40-60 MPH winds.
There's also another fork in the forecast that could take us in the opposite direction. Some models want to develop a mesoscale convective system (MCS), or in simpler terms, a wind bag and more widespread damage. If that happens, then damaging wind issues could become much more widespread than currently forecast.
So could the forecast flop? yes.
Could it overperform? Also yes.
What should you do? Have a way to receive warnings and keep an eye on updated forecasts as the day goes on.