157 Photos and videos
$SPCX just pulled off the biggest IPO ever. up ~40% from its offer price in a few days
here's the part the green candles hide: every major tech IPO of the last decade drew down between 39% and 90% at some point after listing. not some. every one
up now doesn't mean up in 6 months. will $SPCX be the exception?
you never go broke taking profits
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πUpdate
We hit the upper target zone from the video
some early volume fixing showing up, but nothing that looks like real distribution yet
my base case: chop around this zone for a bit, pull back lower, then another push up. the dip I was waiting for might just come later
SPI shows big players building $BTC positions down here while others sell.
Same pattern shows up every cycle this year. Possible range for weeks, maybe a couple months.
Details in the video. Seeing the same?
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yeah this one didn't play how I wanted
I was leaning rejection one more dip. Iran news flipped it and we went straight for the range high instead.
β5/6. the accumulation read holds, the dip didn't happen. Thank you, Mr. Donald Pump)
P.S. positional metric update tomorrow.
π Retesting VFlow 60d as resistance.
Break above, or rejection and a 6/6 on the tracker? Thoughts?
I lean rejection - still expecting one last dip before the move up toward the range high at 67/69K .
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So, we've got around a 2% decline from VFlow. That's already β
5/5 since the correction began.
Rejections are clearly getting smaller.
Market selling is being absorbed, and limit buyers will soon become market buyers. ~$214M in outflows from the $BTC ETF yesterday, with barely any price reaction, confirms it.
π One last time before VFlow flips to support? What do you think?
Price back at 30d VFlow. It's been resistance the whole way down - I think it'll change to support pretty soon.
$BTC
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π Pt. 2 - Order book check
Bids dominating in this range, stronger than back in February. Limit demand is building down here, buyers stepping in.
Same story the SPI metric is showing - big players quietly building positions.
π Pt. 1 OI check
The last $Btc drop didn't shake out enough to fully reset the market. Price made new lows, but OI is still higher relative to past bottoms.
I'd expect price to come back down the lows soon, which should flush more OI before any real move up.
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π β
4/4 Setup tracker
I guess we can already count that one. Around -3%.
π Update.
Called the VFlow retest a bit early yesterday. The real test is happening now. Price up 2.5% from yesterday.
This is the actual decision point. Either it rejects here or it doesnβt. After one more dip, I think VFlow rotates to support, and thatβs when I start watching for swing long setups, as SPI is pointing to an accumulation zone.
Data only. NFA $BTC
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π Pt. 1 OI check
The last $Btc drop didn't shake out enough to fully reset the market. Price made new lows, but OI is still higher relative to past bottoms.
I'd expect price to come back down the lows soon, which should flush more OI before any real move up.
π Positional.
So, let's see where we stand mid term.
SPI metric just flipped into accumulation - showing big players starting to build BTC down here. Historically price has worked its way back above the accumulation zone over time.
Locally though, more downside still possible. Looking at 55K, maybe 58K first. The next wave of selling is the thing to watch.
Lower low, or is this the bottom?
Data only. NFA $BTC
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π Update.
Called the VFlow retest a bit early yesterday. The real test is happening now. Price up 2.5% from yesterday.
This is the actual decision point. Either it rejects here or it doesnβt. After one more dip, I think VFlow rotates to support, and thatβs when I start watching for swing long setups, as SPI is pointing to an accumulation zone.
Data only. NFA $BTC
π Update
Price back near VFlow.
The last retest played out 3/3. Price is lower now, but the 1H is flagging risk of a pullback here. Letβs see if it holds the pattern.
This could be the last dip before the move up I've been expecting.
Data only. NFA $BTC
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π Positional.
So, let's see where we stand mid term.
SPI metric just flipped into accumulation - showing big players starting to build BTC down here. Historically price has worked its way back above the accumulation zone over time.
Locally though, more downside still possible. Looking at 55K, maybe 58K first. The next wave of selling is the thing to watch.
Lower low, or is this the bottom?
Data only. NFA $BTC
π Positional
Current 4H: Transition into deeper distribution phase.
Whales / large players distributing at key zone. Structure confirms.
Probability tilts toward testing lower accumulation zones (~62-65K).
Data only. NFA $BTC
Trade17
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π 67K gave way.
Lost the level I flagged earlier - path down is open now.
Main Limit Interest Zones sit at 58-60K. The more likely target for this correction, the way I read it, is the 55K area.
Data only. NFA $BTC
π β
3/3 Setup
Third touch of VFlow 30d played out - all three led to continuation lower. ~-6% this time.
Probably near a local pause now. Expecting some chop here. 67K stays the critical level - lose it and the path down opens up, like I flagged before.
Data only. NFA $BTC
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π β
3/3 Setup
Third touch of VFlow 30d played out - all three led to continuation lower. ~-6% this time.
Probably near a local pause now. Expecting some chop here. 67K stays the critical level - lose it and the path down opens up, like I flagged before.
Data only. NFA $BTC
π Third touch of VFlow 30d.
The previous two ended with continuation lower.
What do you see here? I lean toward more downside - the structure hasn't given any real reason to flip yet.
Data only. NFA $BTC
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π Update
β
As flagged. Over 6% down once VFlow broke. The mid-term picture says there's more room lower.
Likely path now: small ranges with bounces toward VFlow, then continuation. 67K is the level that matters - below it, lower low is in play.
Data only. NFA $BTC
π Bounce path playing out.
Price reached VFlow 30d at ~78K. This is the test - reaction here decides if sellers step back in or if buyers actually show up.
Coinbase asks still elevated, no real rotation on the book yet. Setup leans toward continuation lower if VFlow holds as resistance.
Data only. NFA $BTC
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π Bounce path playing out.
Price reached VFlow 30d at ~78K. This is the test - reaction here decides if sellers step back in or if buyers actually show up.
Coinbase asks still elevated, no real rotation on the book yet. Setup leans toward continuation lower if VFlow holds as resistance.
Data only. NFA $BTC
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π Why Coinbase is leading.
BTC ETFs just printed two days of heavy outflows: -$648M and -$331M. $1B gone in 48h.
ETF redemptions clear through Coinbase. The pressure on the book wasn't random.
Data only. NFA $BTC
π Update
Coinbase moving way more size than Binance on the sell side. Same price action, but the pressure is concentrated on one venue.
Worth watching Coinbase for the flip, not Binance.
Data only. NFA $BTC
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