Neurodivergent trader. Former skateboarder now riding commodities & metals. Still eating losses, still getting back up.
Joined February 2021
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Apr 12
Rebranded — Diesel Dee now. Same trader, evolved focus. 70% macro/equities/commodities, 30% everything else. @TraderDeez
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Jun 8
8.4% circuit breaker on Korea's open is a wake up call. When the second largest semiconductor market gaps down 8% , it's not contained.
Watch your usd strength, your EM exposure, and any illiquid positions. Volatility clustering is real. Hedge accordingly.
BREAKING: South Korea’s stock market has been halted after falling -8.4% at the open.
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May 16
Gold retesting the diagonal support it broke 8 days ago. Either this holds and we bounce hard , or it cracks and we're looking at a real pullback.
Watch the close. Support breaks on volume = sellers in control.
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May 15
Samsung's 45,000-worker strike looming over bonus disputes. This is the AI boom's first real supply-chain test. If production slows, semiconductor shortage becomes real, not just inflation talk. Parabolic valuations betting on endless growth just met friction. Watch the ripple.
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May 15
KOSPI just dropped 3% today after the parabolic run. Korean semiconductors were the narrative anchor for global AI euphoria. If that cracks, what does it mean for the rest of the blowoff? Watch SPX correlation over next 48h. Risk-off usually bids gold and oil. We'll find out.
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May 12
Trump in China May 14-15. This is where Iran deal gets decided. Trade wins with Xi = political capital for Iran resolution. Trade losses = Iran leverage collapses. Oil's holding $108-110 waiting for clarity.
Watch the bilateral readout. Everything else is noise.
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May 12
Trump suspending federal gas tax Iran deal chatter = oil getting priced lower. Brent's holding $108-110 but that's fragile. If deal closes, you're looking at $100 fast. Supply relief takes weeks to hit consumers, but markets move on expectations. Oil's done outperforming. Commodities still win, but oil's the hedge trade now.
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May 7
Watching paint dry in the markets today. Ceasefire holding, Fed paused, oil finding a floor. Sometimes the best trade is no trade. Coffee's good though. How's your portfolio sitting? ☕️
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May 6
Trump pauses "Project Freedom" to broker a deal. China's hosting Iran's foreign minister in Beijing. The Hormuz blockade stays, but the rhetoric shifted from military op to negotiation. Brent down nearly 5% in 48 hours. This looks like a setup for a much longer ceasefire talk than the initial 4-week deal. Geopolitical premium pricing out. Oil could find a floor here.
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May 5
RBA at 4.35%. Third hike this year. The uncomfortable truth Bullock just admitted: if the Middle East conflict escalates, rate hikes won't help. You can't hike your way out of energy inflation. They're cornered.
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May 3
RBA hike risk is being underpriced.
Sticky inflation resilient spending a still-tight labour market means the bar to hold isn’t as low as people think. If they go again, it’s not just a mortgage story — it hits retail, housing sentiment and small caps first.
Market still feels too comfortable.
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Apr 30
Inventory death spiral. US crude down 1.79M barrels in a week. Asia/Europe already depleted. The Strait's still closed.
Supply can't recover while shipping's blocked. Every week that passes without a deal, inventory drawdowns accelerate. The math on $170 oil gets tighter.
This isn't a temporary spike. It's a structural floor rising. 🛢
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Apr 30
The commodity supercycle isn't a shock trade anymore — it's structural.
Energy blocked at the Strait. Ag breaking 20-year resistance. Fertilizer shortages cascading into food inflation. These aren't one-off disruptions. They're the backdrop for 2026.
World Bank warns global energy prices could rise 24%. Commodities broadly up 16% for the year. This sticks around.
Positioning matters now. Equities get re-rated lower when the Fed realizes cuts are off the table. Energy & metals stay elevated.
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Apr 28
The ceasefire is holding, but the real test is whether it lasts. Oil's up 44% since late February—most of that premium is geopolitical fear. If talks progress, that premium evaporates fast. If they break down, we spike higher.
The binary is tighter now. Less room for "slow burn" upside. It's either resolution or escalation.
For now, supply is still tight. Watch the next 72 hours of diplomatic signals. They'll tell you which way this breaks.
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Apr 22
Trump extends ceasefire on paper. Iran seizes ships in practice. Markets got fooled for 15 minutes, then reality reasserted. The ceasefire is narrative, not a market changer. Physical reality always wins. 🛢
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Apr 22
Ceasefire expires today with no extension in sight. Peace talks are dead before they even restart. Market had priced in resolution. What's actually happening is the opposite. Duration was always the bet. 🛢
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Apr 21
Physical crude hitting record highs while futures stay flat. The disconnect is deafening. Benchmarks are lying, the actual market is screaming. Ceasefire theater doesn't matter when real oil is that tight.
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Apr 20
Iran threatening to close the Strait again is negotiating leverage in talks, not a new reality. Markets will price the drama, but the real question is what actually happens vs. what's said. Volatility is the trade, not the headline.
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Apr 17
Crypto looks good here, but I’m still wary. Feels more like fear unwind and headline beta than clean conviction. If it holds after the ceasefire optimism fades, bullish. If not, classic trap.
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Apr 17
Iran reopening the Strait removes one immediate risk, but it doesn’t remove the geopolitical premium. Gold and silver aren’t just trading shipping access now, they’re trading distrust, inflation risk, and the chance this de-escalation is only temporary.
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Apr 16
Ceasefire headlines are exactly the kind of thing that can pressure oil short term. If markets start believing de-escalation, energy gives back fear premium fast. Good for risk assets, better for patient oil entries.
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