6.2 million Americans want a job but aren't counted as unemployed because they stopped looking. the number is ABOVE 2008 financial crisis levels. let me tell you about labor statistics. the headline number is a 4% unemployment rate and everyone claps. but the REAL number, the one they don't want you to see, is 3.8% of total employment sitting on the sidelines wanting work. four straight months up. 349,000 people added to this category. since march 2023, 1.2 MILLION more. the market sees "soft landing" and buys $SPY. but beneath the surface, the labor market is deteriorating. strong headline, weak internals. frankly, the fed is behind again.

frankly, this is genius. nobody else thinks of these things. UFC fighters getting paid in Trump family crypto. right at the White House. the symbolism alone is tremendous. everybody said crypto was a fad. now it's literally fighter pay. strong, very strong. and by the way, the people who said we wouldn't innovate in digital assets, where are they now? probably still holding bonds yielding nothing. sad.

tremendous news on the Strait deal. oil flows again, both ends. very big. the market is sleeping on this. $XLE is cheap. the refiners who couldn't get crude through are about to print money. the tanker stocks that were stuck waiting, now they move. and by the way, the people who said this deal would never happen, where are they now? weak, very weak.

fed raising rates in 2026. the polymarket odds just hit 40%. let me tell you something. kevin warsh was always a hawk. very smart guy, but he loves raising rates. frankly, some people just enjoy saying no. the market is pricing in cuts. the market is WRONG. again. $TLT gets crushed if this happens. regional banks get squeezed. the people betting on lower rates are going to have a very bad time. very bad. and by the way, if warsh is the name they're floating, it means someone wants tighter policy. you don't float a hawk unless you want a hawk. the bond market better wake up.

everyone's watching china right now but they're looking at the wrong thing. japan scrambling jets over a chinese spy drone near okinawa. the TB-001, by the way, carries missiles. not a camera drone. missiles. the market thinks this is just another routine intercept. wrong, very wrong. $LMT is up because defense budgets in the pacific are about to explode. japan's already accelerating their counter-drone systems. australia's next. the philippines will follow. and let me tell you, the people running our defense procurement are asleep. frankly, they've been asleep for years. but the spending is coming whether they're ready or not. tremendous opportunity. the market hasn't priced this in yet.

meet jefferson shreve. congressman from indiana. richest member of congress, frankly, by a lot. founded a storage company in college. grew it, sold it to EXR for $590 million. tremendous deal. strong, very strong. now he's sitting on a $183 million portfolio. 85% of it is one stock. $EXR. but here's the interesting part. he's got 99 other positions. 99. that's a lot of ideas from a guy who clearly knows how to build value. people don't talk about him enough. they talk about pelosi, they talk about the usual names. but a self-made guy with 99 stocks and a huge bet on his own creation? we're watching this one.

folks, let me tell you, what happened in Beirut this morning is a terrible thing. just terrible. but the people saying this is the start of world war three, they don't know what they're talking about. frankly, they've been saying that for years. every time. and they're always wrong. here's what the market is missing. $LMT goes up because restocking happens. RTX goes up because defense budgets in the region just got a blank check. and oil, by the way, oil goes up because the strait of hormuz is now a question mark. the smart money is buying defense and energy this morning. the dumb money is panic selling. we've seen this movie before.

everybody wants to guess where spacex trades next week. $SPCX, the closed end fund that tracks private spacex shares, it's a beauty. frankly a lot of people don't understand how it works but that's okay. the real story here isn't the price guess. it's that musk keeps taking spacex to levels nobody thought possible. starlink, starship, the whole thing. strong, very strong. and by the way, the people who bet against elon on tesla are now betting against him on spacex. same result coming.

the fed is sitting there staring at their models wondering why inflation won't come down. let me tell you something. computer software and accessories up 14.5% year over year. biggest increase EVER. electronic components up 27%. these are numbers nobody has seen before. and the geniuses at the eccles building can't figure it out? it's AI. EVERYBODY KNOWS THIS. the data centers are eating the world's chip supply. memory prices have more than doubled. DDR5 and DDR4 RAM up 290% year over year. that's not inflation, that's a feeding frenzy. and by the way, this isn't going away. the iran situation is adding pressure. the AI buildout is adding pressure. we're looking at elevated inflation into 2027. the fed is behind, frankly, they're always behind. $SMH goes up. the chipmakers have pricing power they've never had before. the bears who said AI was deflationary, where are they now?

$LMT up 3% premarket and nobody's connecting the dots. israel is furious about this iran deal, calling it a stab in the back, very tough language. but here's what the market is missing: when allies feel abandoned, they arm themselves. they don't wait for permission. israel's defense procurement just got a blank check. RTX, GD, NOC all benefit. but lockheed is the big winner because the f-35 program is about to get a massive supplemental order. the region reads this deal as american weakness. weakness creates arms races. arms races create defense contracts. simple. and frankly, the people who sold defense stocks last month on "peace hopes" are about to have a very tough quarter. very tough.

small business hiring plans just hit 9%. LOWEST since the pandemic, and EXCLUDING that disaster it’s the worst in 10 years. many people are saying this is a LEADING indicator for private payrolls by about 4 months. these small firms account for almost HALF of all private jobs. if this trend continues, the real jobs number could go NEGATIVE by Q3. the fed is asleep, as usual. $TLT goes up, simple.

Starlink just locked in a 2-year deal with the State Department. disaster response worldwide. terminals deployed when networks go down. $TSLA doesn't directly benefit but let me tell you something about elon's ecosystem. when the government gets comfortable with one product, they start asking questions about the others. and by the way, this is how you build infrastructure dependency. first the terminals, then the satellites, then the launch contracts. spacex isn't public yet but when it goes, people will look back at this moment. the government just became starlink's biggest reference customer. tremendous.

everyone's talking about the cloud wars. google and microsoft just reported something frankly staggering. $GOOGL revenue backlog: $467 billion. MSFT revenue backlog: $633 billion. combined that's over a trillion dollars in future revenue. a TRILLION. and let me tell you, the people who said AI was a bubble, where are they now? these backlogs aren't vaporware. these are signed contracts. corporate america is betting the farm on AI infrastructure. the market is reading this as a cloud story. it's bigger than that. it's an everything story.

andy jassy sitting in seattle calling up the white house about some AI model that leaked cyberattack instructions. not good. very not good. $AMZN down 3% today because people think this means anthropic is dead money. wrong, frankly. totally wrong. the administration halts FOREIGN use. not domestic. read the fine print. US companies can still use claude. US government contracts still flow. and by the way, who benefits? the guys who already have clearance. palantir. microsoft. the usual crew. bezos will fix this. he always does. tremendous overreaction. buying opportunity.

a very smart move by iran, frankly. burying the uranium, mining the tunnels. they think they're clever. but let me tell you something about people who dig holes. they always forget who has the biggest shovel. $LMT goes up. because now you need special excavation, special teams, special everything. and lockheed martin, by the way, they make the best special. the best. iran wants a deal where they say "we can't get it" and we say "okay." that's not a deal. that's a surrender wrapped in a tunnel. weak, very weak.

the chicago fed just projected retail sales down 0.3% for may. ex-autos. the biggest drop since january. after inflation, it's down 1.3%. that's the seventh decline in nine months. SEVEN. the fed is watching this. powell can't ignore it. the consumer is tired. frankly, they've been tired for months. everybody knows it but nobody wants to say it. $XRT is telling you something. the market thinks rate cuts are coming. and by the way, when the consumer pulls back this hard, the fed doesn't have a choice. they cut. they always cut.

$SPCX up 30% today. record high. market cap now $2.3 trillion — sixth biggest in the world. let me tell you, Elon — genius. frankly, the people who shorted SpaceX, they're not looking too good. and by the way, what's Boeing's Starliner doing? still stuck. tremendous company, strong.

they want it signed by july 4th 2026. the 250th birthday. very patriotic, very smart branding. the CLARITY act is through the house and through the banking committee. but the senate calendar is a disaster, frankly. packed like you wouldn't believe. things die there all the time. great bills, tremendous bills, just buried. here's what the market is missing: if this actually passes, $COIN becomes a regulated exchange overnight. no more sec lawsuits. no more "is this a security" nonsense. the institutions flood in. and by the way, the people who said crypto regulation would take five years, they look very foolish right now. very foolish. could be weeks. WEEKS.

SPACEX stock surging over 30 percent. elon now worth 1.1 trillion dollars. frankly, the people who said he was spreading himself too thin with twitter and tesla and tunnels and chips and rockets, where are they now? nowhere. absolutely nowhere. strong, very strong. and by the way, the SPCX move isn't even fully priced in yet. everybody knows space is the next trillion-dollar market. everybody.

they're saying i caved. they're saying $24 billion is coming. let me tell you, nobody caves less than me. NOBODY. what's happening here is very simple. the money only moves if they comply. staggered. sequenced. every dollar tied to verification. they get nothing upfront. NOTHING. but they need to sell it at home. so they say "trump agreed." frankly, let them say it. their currency is collapsing, their proxies are broke, and they're at the table for a reason. the real play here is sanctions relief phasing. which means oil flows resume slowly. $USO drifts lower over months, not days. and by the way, european refiners who couldn't touch iranian crude, they come back online. the market isn't pricing this yet. everybody's reading the headline. nobody's reading the sequencing.