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@lessin on yesterday's episode of Turpentine VC, explaining why the so-called "factory system" of venture capital is over.
"I think for the last 10 years, you and I have been part of what I call a factory system of venture capital that came together.
Seed investors put ideas up. Seed investors said, "oh, we're the first line of production. We'll put in money, we'll tinker with it. We'll help you refine the business model and package it to pass it to the Series A people."
And the series A people are like, "cool, we'll tinker with it and help you hit the right metrics and go after the right things and put capital in, then package it for the series B people." It's just this factory line, and the end of the line is supposed to be valuable public companies.
It's not that you won't have valuable public companies generated in history. You obviously will, but the idea that you could just package and push things down a line, whether it was direct to consumer companies, or more recent AI companies...like there's a model you can follow that's gonna predictably produce $1 to $10 billion self-similar enough companies and you could just produce those at at non artisanal scale. That's kind of what fell apart.
So now you see the biggest companies are even bigger and most of the things that were the packaged IPOs have kind of been shitty. And so the whole factory line is now backed up. The public market for this stuff doesn't work. Which means the Series D investors overpaid, which means you literally like had a halt button on the factory line. And so I think it was pretty obvious 18 months ago that the factory line was gonna grind to a halt.
As the seed tinkerers who are packaging things, they hand to the series A people in a self-similar way where they can easily buy them and then do their part, their step of production—it was pretty clear that like we just had to chill out while they worked through all the inventory that was rotting on the line effectively.
We have a big backup problem. The problem I now see candidly is I just don't see how the line turns back on. I'm really unclear as to how the factory restarts, like ever. I'm not worried about that as a seed investor.
Like I don't think it's that big a deal. I think these things used to be more artisanal, and there are interesting businesses to build, and interesting things to invest in. I'm very pro all that.
Even we at
@slow got really in our heads in that, we want to bet on great founders and big ideas... but if we're being honest and look at our portfolio, there's a lot of things we did where, well, we like the option value...we know how to package this. We know who's gonna buy it. And we get the markup and we kind of go from there.
I don't think those have been our biggest winners candidly. But I think we even fell into the trap of being part of the system, and I think we're kind of getting pushed back out to be real investors and real venture capitalists and not packages on a factory line.
You know, all of the deals I'm most proud of and we've made the most money on, they were all things that were pretty non-consensus in weird industries. Where we had a thesis that other people didn't. And you do need your crazy thesis to eventually become mainstream enough for someone else to want to finance the thing.
The stuff we've done that fit more into the good clubby stuff. It's not bad, but it's not the real wins. And so I think the future of VC is going back to like really pushing investors and founders to think about what are the really interesting opportunities? They're not gonna be the ones that necessarily fit into an easy YC batch.
And then I go a step further: I do think the other thing that will change is, seed capital is not something you burn to then raise Series A capital.
I think now it's gotta be like, take the money, build a business that works. Once the business is working, think about how to scale it up, scale it faster, make sure that capital is always an option, not a required path in the market."