In case you were wondering how this performed, near-perfect temps meant no weather effect, leaving just the random-walk estimate.
Top-3 average was 2:02:30, ~0.7 posterior SDs faster than the 2:05:10 median, inside the 95% interval (1:57:55–2:12:29).
Based on the attire on the Green Line skewing more Hokas and On Cloudmonsters than a typical workday, I can confirm today is the Boston Marathon.
Just uploaded a new blog post looking at how much of finish-time variation is attributable to weather.
Link in thread