President Trump has posted that 100 Million barrels of oil are making its way through the Strait.
This appears to be what is happening.
⚓️President Trump and
@CENTCOM announced Project Freedom to escort ships through the Strait. The US evacuated two US ships but then curtailed the operation.
⚓️It appears that the US resumed the operation using autonomous vehicles, aircraft and drones to escort ships through the southern part of the Strait, near the coast of Oman.
⚓️Iran has responded with targeting of some ships, these include HMM Namu and CMA CGM San Antonio. The US has responded with airstrikes against Iran.
⚓️ What has transpired is tankers, including Very Large Crude Carriers are exiting the Persian Gulf. Then, per
@TankerTrackers, the VLCCs are conducting ship-to-ship (STS) transfers to other tankers in the Gulf of Oman.
⚓️The empty tankers, which ran the Strait with their AIS, run back through the Strait to pick up a new load of oil from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar or Iraq.
⚓️The Apache helicopter that recently crashed was probably a part of this operation.
⚓️This explains why we have not seen an appreciable drop in the number of ships stuck in the Persian Gulf. By running the same ships, war risk insurance, potentially provided by the US through the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) through a pool of approximately of $40 billion, could be covering these ships making the transits.
⚓️This would also explain the recent announcement by Kuwait to fix new contracts for its oil.
⚓️The question is how long is this sustainable and at what level is oil moving daily. With current pipelines through Saudi Arabia and the UAE, this system would need to move approximately 12-14M barrels/day through the Strait.
This analysis is based on open source material, but big shout out to
@TankerTrackers @Kpler @MarineTraffic @LloydsList @gCaptain for their postings and research.