Writer of Uncrewed's State Legislative Election Watch. Lauren Underwood Stan. Some people may know me as Chris. DM's are open! (He/Him)
Joined February 2014
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Since today is the start of Black History Month, here's a map of the black population of the United States by County. You can definitely spot the outline of the southern "black belt" here that stretches from Louisiana and Arkansas to Virginia.
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Here is my first forecast for this year's state legislative elections in Florida!
The Democrats need to flip 7 seats in the State House and just one seat in the Senate to break the Republican supermajorities. That seems very doable this year (despite Florida being Florida).
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And here it is in chart form.
The Democrats are already one seat closer to breaking the supermajority in the State House, as they have automatically flipped #HD47 (Trump 3) thanks to the Republicans not getting a candidate there.
Big own goal for the Florida GOP
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Uncrewed retweeted
Well this is something of note
In HD47, a Hispanic-maj seat that flipped from Biden 13 to Trump 3, the Republican incumbent did not qualify for re-election and Republicans recruited no backed
This seat will be an automatic Democratic FLIP - as two DEMs filed #flapol
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Here is my first forecast for this year's state legislative elections in Wyoming! Overall, it's Wyoming, a very Republican state with only two competitive House districts in Cheyenne.
Look, I have to make a forecast for every state with elections this year, no matter how boring!
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And here it is in chart form. Very exciting, I know.
Anyway, the real fireworks here will be in August when the establishment and Freedom Caucus groups clash again. The Freedom Caucus easily won in 2024, but we've seen establishment types strike back in other states this year.
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Here is my first forecast for this year's state legislative elections in Hawaii!
Overall, the Democratic supermajorities in both chambers are favored to grow (especially in the State House), with Republicans being pushed down to single digits in the House looking likely.
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And here it is in chart form
First time there's been a Safe D column in my ratings. That's because two Republican-held seats are almost certainly flipping blue:
HD-14 (Harris 16, Dem incumbent became a Republican)
HD-18 (Harris 32, longtime Republican incumbent died)
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COMING TONIGHT: My first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Hawaii!
Republicans have made up ground in what was once barren territory for them. Can they continue? Or will Democrats reclaim lost ground for the first time in multiple cycles?
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Here is my first forecast for this year's state legislative elections in Minnesota!
With a strong top of the ticket led by Amy Klobuchar, the Minnesota Dems are poised to break the gridlock that has plagued St. Paul for the last 2 years and gain multiple seats in both chambers.
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And here it is in chart form.
Klobuchar leading the charge has the potential for things to get really messy really quick for the Republicans. If they nominate a weak candidate against her, I could see her racking up a 20 point win and sweeping Democrats into office behind her.
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COMING TONIGHT: My first set of ratings for this year's State Legislative elections in Minnesota!
In one of the most divided governments in America (The House is literally tied!), can the Democrats win back full control in St. Paul, especially with Klobuchar leading the ticket?
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Nancy Mace (R) concedes defeat in the South Carolina governors race and endorses AG Alan Wilson for South Carolina governor
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Another new edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now covering tonight’s primaries in South Carolina!
From multiple candidates being arrested to the most terminally online Republican ever, South Carolina is not disappointing this year. Check it out below!
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