๐๐ก๐ ๐๐% ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐๐ฒ๐ญ๐ก ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ง๐ค๐๐
One of the most pervasive myths in science is that 97% (or sometimes stated as >99%) of โclimate scientistsโ agree that all global warming since the mid-19th century is human-caused and that this warming is an existential threat to the welfare of the planet and all life on it.
Except, this statistic is largely made up, and no matter how many times it is quashed, it persists as a talking point in online forums.
The โconsensus of scientistsโ is not organic. Rather, it was manufactured through questionable methods in two studies, both published in Environmental Research Letters (ERL): Cook et al. (2013) and Lynas et al. (2021).
Let's look closer at these studies. ๐
๐๐๐ โ๐๐% ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โ
The paper that got this all started was published in ERL in 2013.
๐
iopscience.iop.org/article/1โฆ
Led by cognitive psychologist John Cookโa Senior Research Fellow at the Melbourne Centre for Behaviour Change and founder of the climate blog, Skeptical Scienceโhe and eight co-authors skimmed the abstracts of 11,944 climate-related papers published between 1991 and 2011.
Of the 11,944 abstracts, a total of 7,930 (66.4%) of them expressed ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ on the cause(s) of global warming since the pre-industrial era.
Of the remaining 4,014 abstracts that endorsed either anthropogenic global warming (AGW) or natural global warming, 3,896 (97.1%) endorsed AGW in at least some capacity, while 78 (1.9%) questioned or rejected AGW. The remaining 40 (1%) of papers expressed uncertainty.
But, it gets even more nuanced than that if we look at the abstracts and pick them apart. On whether global warming is being caused entirely by human activities, by nature, or by a combination of both, of those 4,014 papers, they state warming is caused:
๐ด Entirely by humans: 64 papers (1.59%)
๐ค >>50% by humans: 922 (22.96%)
๐ก Equally natural man-made: 2,910 (72.50%)
๐ข >>50% by natural cycles: 54 (1.35%)
๐ต Man is causing no warming: 24 (0.60%)
๐คท Don't know: 40 (1.00%)
So, a โ97% consensusโ can be contrived by either (a) omitting the 7,930 (66.4% of) abstracts in the 11,944-paper sample that did not explicitly state a position on the drivers of global warming, or by (b) lumping all 3,896 abstracts that endorsed at least some anthropogenic component as entirely endorsing AGW.
Either way, that's sausage-making. ๐ญ
But, what about the >99% consensus?
๐๐๐ โ>๐๐% ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โ
Like Cook et al. (2013), Lynas et al. (2021) attempted to quantify the consensus on AGW.
๐
iopscience.iop.org/article/1โฆ
In this synthesis, 3,000 climate papers were selected at random. In that batch, 282 were marked as false positives since they weren't actually climate-related. Thatโs fair. So, the analysis continued with the remaining 2,718 peer-reviewed articles.
Of those, 1,869 (68.8%) of them took ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ on AGW. And, like Cook et al. (2013), all 1,869 papers neither endorsing nor rejecting AGW were discarded. Of the remaining 849 papers that did endorse a position, 845 (99.5%) of them sided with AGW while four did not.
So, like Cook et al. (2013), Lynas et al. (2021) ignored over 65% of the papers selected that didn't take one position or the other on the physical driver(s) of global warming. By doing this, the authors could artificially manufacture a consensus on an issue where none actually existed if all of the relevant papers were considered.
The advantage that Lynas et al. (2021) has over Cook et al. (2013) is that each paper was examined thoroughly rather than just the abstract. This made for a more thorough analysis despite the same flawed methodology both used in ignoring the majority of papers that took a neutral stance.
๐๐ฎ๐ญ, ๐ฐ๐๐ข๐ญ, ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐'๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐. . .
Climate activists will argue that the authors of Cook et al. (2013) and Lynas et al. (2021) were justified in excluding the 66.4% and 68.8% of papers, respectively, that did not express a position, on the grounds that those studies did not focus on identifying or discussing causal links.
But, that's just hand-waving. ๐
The fact is that not all of the studies endorsing AGW investigated the physical driver(s) of temperature change since 1850. In fact, in order to qualify as endorsing (or rejecting) AGW, a paper merely needed to take a stance on the issue, regardless of whether or not the study's focus was on the physical drivers of climate change.
You will find when reading through the literature that even papers challenging the conventional narrativeโsuch as on topics like climate model performance, trends in extreme weather, and/or the efficacy of โnet zeroโ policiesโalmost always include the disclaimer that mankind's carbon dioxide (COโ) emissions are the proximate cause of all global warming. This is done so that the paper satisfies reviewers and journal editors enough to get accepted for publication. This is the science equivalent of a land acknowledgement to be in good standing with gatekeepers.
Another point I should add about Cook et al. (2013) and Lynas et al. (2021) is that neither paper frame their findings as being a reflection of the โconsensus of scientists.โ So, when climate activists claim that 97-99% of experts agree, that's not accurately stating what these studies purport.
๐๐๐ข๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐ฏ๐ฌ. ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐ข๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฌ
Another point I should add about Cook et al. (2013) and Lynas et al. (2021) is that neither paper frame their findings as being a reflection of the โconsensus of scientists.โ So, when climate activists claim that 97-99% of experts agree, that's not at all an accurate framing of these papers' findings.
The papers actually attempted to quantify the โscientific consensusโ on AGW, which is a consensus of what the published literature says. That is different from a โconsensus of scientists,โ which is essentially nothing more than an expert opinion poll.
What's more, neither of these reviews addressed the million-dollar question, which is whether or not global warming has been [or will be] dangerous. Just because our GHG emissions ๐๐๐ฆ have caused some [or even most of the warming] since the onset of the Industrial Revolution, that tells us nothing about the level of danger posed by it short- and long-term.
So, what do we actually know about what scientists think about (a) the cause(s) of global warming and (b) whether or not they think it is dangerous?
Thankfully, we have some insight into that.
๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐
While a โconsensus of scientistsโ (i.e., expert opinion poll) is less robust than a โscientific consensusโ (i.e., synthesis of published literature), one advantage that polling scientists for their opinion has over the latter is that it gives them anonymity to express their views on the issue without having to fear losing their job or having their paper(s) rejected by biased journal editors (the gatekeepers).
Prestigious, lauded scientific organizations such as the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the American Meteorological Society (AMS), and the Royal Society have manufactured a โconsensus of scientistsโ by taking a very strong stance on the climate issue without first consulting their members for their views.
Both the AGU and AMS recently did just that following the Trump administration's decision to repeal the Obama-era 2009 Endangerment Finding that allowed the EPA to regulate tailpipe emissions.
From the AGU,
๐จ๏ธโ๐ด๐บ๐ ๐ข๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐๐๐ฆ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐กโ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐, ๐คโ๐๐โ โ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ โ๐ข๐๐๐ ๐ค๐๐๐-๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐กโ๐ ๐๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก. ๐ผ๐ก ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐กโ๐ ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐คโ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐ ๐โ๐๐๐๐โ๐ ๐๐๐ข๐๐ก๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ฆ โ๐๐๐ก๐ค๐๐ฃ๐๐ ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ , ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ โ๐๐๐-๐ค๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ ๐๐ข๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ข๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ก๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐ฆ. ๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ก๐๐๐, ๐๐ก ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ข๐๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐๐ ๐กโ๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ข๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ฆ.โ
๐
fromtheprow.agu.org/agu-denoโฆ
And, from the AMS,
๐จ๏ธโ๐โ๐ ๐ด๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐ฆ (๐ด๐๐) ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ฆ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ฆ ๐กโ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐ธ๐๐ดโ๐ 2009 ๐ธ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก ๐น๐๐๐๐๐๐, ๐คโ๐๐โ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐ฆ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐๐ ๐กโ๐๐ก ๐๐๐๐๐โ๐๐ข๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐ โ๐๐๐ โ๐๐๐๐กโ ๐๐๐ ๐ค๐๐๐-๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ข๐๐๐๐๐ก ๐๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ก๐ข๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ .โ
The letter continues, asserting without presenting a single shred of evidence, that,
๐จ๏ธ โ๐โ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ข๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ก๐ โ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐กโ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐ ๐ก ๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ ๐ก๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ฃ๐ ๐กโ๐ ๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ ๐คโ๐๐ ๐กโ๐๐ฆ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ฆ ๐กโ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ก ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ค๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐๐๐๐๐. ๐โ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐กโ๐ ๐ธ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก ๐น๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ก ๐๐๐ก๐๐ ๐กโ๐ ๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ ๐ข๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ข๐ ๐๐๐: ๐โ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐ ๐โ๐๐๐๐ ๐กโ๐๐ก ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ข๐ ๐๐๐ ๐กโ๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ โ๐ข๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฃ๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ค๐๐๐-๐๐๐๐๐.โ
๐
ametsoc.org/ams/about-ams/neโฆ
Both statements were written without consultation of each organization's professional members.
Contrary to the AMS' partisan take, we actually have good insight into what their members think about (a) the cause(s) of global warming and (b) whether or not they think warming is dangerous.
In January 2016, Dr. Ed Maibach and colleagues from George Mason University (GMU) polled all 7,682 (at that time) professional members of the AMS on their views on climate change. A handful of questions were asked with several follow-ups.
๐
gmuchss.az1.qualtrics.com/CPโฆ
The survey had a 53.3% participation rate and there were 4,092 respondents (p. 1).
Here are a sample of the questions asked:
1โฃ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ด๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฑ๐น๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ, ๐ฑ๐ผ ๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ธ ๐ฐ๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด? (4,091 responses)
โ
Yes: 96%
โ No: 1%
๐คท Don't know: 3%
โฆ [Follow-up, only asked to those who answered โYesโ to 1] ๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฐ๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด? (3,854 responses)
๐ข Extremely sure: 58%
๐ต Very sure: 31%
๐ก Somewhat sure: 10%
๐ด Not sure: 0%
โฆ [Follow-up, only asked to those who answered โNoโ to 1] ๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฐ๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด? (53 responses)
๐ข Extremely sure: 13%
๐ต Very sure: 43%
๐ก Somewhat sure: 38%
๐ด Not sure: 6%
2โฃ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ธ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ผ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ฑ๐ฌ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ป ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฑ... (4,004 responses)
๐ด Largely / entirely by humans (>81%): 29%
๐ค Mostly by humans (60-80%): 38%
๐ก Roughly equally natural man-made: 14%
๐ข Mostly by natural events (60-80%): 7%
๐ต Largely / entirely by natural events (>81%): 5%
๐คท Don't know: 6%
โ Climate has not changed: 1%
6โฃ ๐ง๐ผ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐ธ๐ป๐ผ๐๐น๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ด๐ฒ, ๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ฑ๐ฌ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐? (4,002 responses)
โ
Yes: 74%
โ No: 11%
๐คท Don't know: 15%
โฆ [Follow-up, only asked to those who answered โYesโ to 6] ๐ช๐ต๐ถ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ณ๐ผ๐น๐น๐ผ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐(๐) ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐น๐ผ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฐ๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ฑ๐ฌ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐? (3,546 responses)
๐ข Exclusively beneficial: 0%
๐ต Primarily beneficial: 4%
๐ก Equally mixed, beneficial harmful: 36%
๐ค Primarily harmful: 36%
๐ด Exclusively harmful: 2%
๐คท Don't know: 21%
7โฃ ๐ง๐ผ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐ธ๐ป๐ผ๐๐น๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ด๐ฒ, ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐น๐ผ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฐ๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ป๐ฒ๐
๐ ๐ฑ๐ฌ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐? (3,963 responses)
โ
Yes: 78%
โ No: 5%
๐คท Don't know: 17%
โฆ [Follow-up, only asked to those who answered โYesโ to 7] ๐ช๐ต๐ถ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ณ๐ผ๐น๐น๐ผ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐(๐) ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐น๐ผ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฐ๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ป๐ฒ๐
๐ ๐ฑ๐ฌ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐? (3,761 responses)
๐ข Exclusively beneficial: 0%
๐ต Primarily beneficial: 2%
๐ก Equally mixed, beneficial harmful: 29%
๐ค Primarily harmful: 47%
๐ด Exclusively harmful: 3%
๐คท Don't know: 19%
So, based on this 2016 survey of professional AMS members, of those who responded,
โข 96% of AMS members agree that climate change is occurring, regardless of the proximate cause.
โข 67% of AMS members agree that change has primarily been human-caused, but the contribution estimates vary considerably. 67% is far from a consensus given that 33% have a different opinion.
โข 38% of AMS members agree that the impacts of climate change in their localities have been negative over the last 50 years. However, 40% said that the impacts have been mixed or primarily beneficial, and 21% said that they weren't sure.
So, what can we truly conclude about the โconsensus of scientistsโ on climate change?
โข Is climate change occurring? โ
โข Human activities contribute to global warming in at least ๐บ๐ถ๐ด๐ฌ capacity? โ
โข Climate change is [or will be] dangerous? โ
And, this exactly summarizes my position (despite the constant framing by detractors that I'm a โdenierโ). It also matches fairly closely with the abstracts in Cook et al. (2013) once you categorize the papers' findings correctly and account for nuance.
Thus, just because global warming is real and we do play some role in causing it is still not a good enough justification to rapidly eliminate fossil fuels from our energy mix. There must be sufficient proof that this warming poses a great threat to the welfare of the planet and life on it, and that has yet to be provided contrary to the BS-infused letters written by the AGU and AMS last week.
So, when climate alarmists [most of whom have no qualifications of their own] claim that I am standing at odds with organizations like the AMS or NASA, quite frankly, I don't care.
It is clear from the survey results above that there is a greater disagreement among scientists than you are led to believe by what both the gatekeepers allow to be published in journals and what higher-ups within scientific organizations claim is the universal position among their members.
Government and university research scientists also are often told what they can and cannot say publicly about climate change. I know that for a fact because I have family that are federal employees, and I know quite a few skeptics in academia at different colleges / universities that play the game to avoid being fired, but in reality, don't agree with alarmist messaging in the slightest.
Last, but not least, consensus isn't science.
Science requires one investigator who happens to have verifiable data and evidence.