Alright guys, here I am with my analysis on the altcoins.
Please read everything carefully because every step is very important.
So, as you can see from the chart mentioned, at the end of 2025 I had given some targets for the altcoins.
I had also highlighted my main areas of interest: the HTF CBOB, the green zone, and the blue zone, which is a BB just below that area, around 140 to 150 billion more or less.
Now, I’m not claiming I was completely right, because if I’m being honest, I really wasn’t.
I was expecting more of a grind around the green zone, with an accumulation phase and an outperformance from altcoins before this period.
So, I can say I more or less identified the right areas, but I definitely got the timing wrong, because I started accumulating a bit too early.
Fortunately, thanks to solid risk management, I’m fairly comfortable with the situation, but still, I could have handled it better, and that has to be acknowledged in the interest of full transparency.
Anyway, as you can see, the blue zone has been partially mitigated, and between February and May we’ve seen what could effectively be a timeframe PO3, with a distribution phase, a manipulation phase, and now a potential expansion.
Now, within this potential expansion zone, we have the 2WBB 200B, which for now is slowing price action down a bit.
That’s why, in a PO3 context, what I would like to see is a solid retest of 196B or 182B, so that we can confirm acceptance back into the range.
At the moment, it looks like this scenario may actually be unfolding, and if confirmed, the technical target would be 236B, which is the range high for the PO3, and potentially the high-probability zone I identified between 288 and 300B.
If we don't get our confirmations, altcoins will likely take their lows that have been formed on the grind up fully mitigating the 140B BB and potentially lower to 100B where we have the most important demand zone.
Now, what’s important to weigh in this situation, though, is Bitcoin’s condition, because its weekly trend still hasn’t changed and it remains in a bear market context, since no major highs have been reclaimed yet.
So how could altcoins potentially outperform?
Well, in my opinion, the best-case scenario is that Bitcoin moves into the area of interest, which could be around $83K, $84K, or even $90K approximately, forms a ranging or potential distribution pattern, and that this then allows altcoins to move higher.
Why do I say this?
Because right now we’re already seeing some relatively “random” pumps.
We’ve seen SUI and we’ve seen TAO for example and in short, some altcoins are still performing well some of them are already showing trend reversals. (focus on trend shifts, enter on PBs)
My framework is that investors looking to exit one sector could use altcoins as a liquidity proxy before eventually redistributing back into Bitcoin.
That would be the ideal scenario for me, and it’s what I want to keep monitoring closely.
If I see a bearish divergence between the price of Bitcoin and the big caps through intermarket analysis (big caps LHs while BTC ranging) I can take it as a 1 for the distribution thesis.
At the moment, as stated slightly above, I will put my focus on the coins that have produced MSS observing the situation step by step.
One day the 288/300B area will be filled, but we cannot predict when.