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Very little changes to U.S. balance sheets from USDA on Thursday. Old-crop corn exports went up a little, corn for ethanol down. Old-crop soybean exports were cut, crush was up.
๐บ๐ธU.S. corn conditions were unchanged from last week (but lower than expected). Soybean conditions declined 1 pt despite an expected improvement, but spring wheat conditions surged 5 pts, above analyst predictions. Winter wheat conditions fell below all expectations.
๐พU.S. winter wheat conditions fell to 26% good/excellent as of Sunday, the date's worst rating in records back to 1986.
Corn planting remains ahead of average despite landing at the low end of estimates this week. Soybean planting is no longer the date's fastest (83% in 2012).
๐บ๐ธU.S. winter wheat conditions slipped to 27% good/excellent, the date's lowest rating since 1989.
Wheat rated poor/very poor rose 3 pts to 43%, the date's highest share in over a decade.
Spring planting (corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton) continues at an above-average pace.
๐บ๐ธU.S. corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks in 2026/27 are all set to decline from the prior year. Wheat stocks came in well below expectations because of a shockingly small winter wheat crop.
๐บ๐ธU.S. winter wheat conditions unexpectedly dropped to 28% good-to-excellent as of Sunday, the date's lowest reading in 30 years.
U.S. corn and soybean planting remained ahead of average pace, with progress slightly topping analyst expectations.
๐บ๐ธU.S. corn is 38% planted, equal to last year and ahead of average. At 33% planted, soybeans remain on their record fast pace, but analysts expected more progress last week. Winter wheat conditions improved 1 point.
๐บ๐ธU.S. winter wheat conditions fell below all trade estimates to 30% good/excellent. That's approaching 2022 & 2023, among the lowest scoring years in recent memory.
Despite some wet weather, U.S. corn & bean planting pace met expectations and remain ahead of average levels.
๐บ๐ธOnly 35% of U.S. winter wheat is in good or excellent condition, below all trade estimates and down notably from late Nov. This is the week's fourth lowest rating of the last decade.
Corn, cotton and spring wheat planting have just begun, right on schedule.
Starting to see stories/reports that nations are banding together to try and provide safe passage thru the Strait of Hormuz.
No guarantees it will work but if it does, it could limit the damage to fertilizer and could have corrections coming.
Timing is everything.
U.S. corn harvested area was raised significantly from September, pushing production over 17 billion bushels. That's up 4.5 million acres since the June acreage survey, which is completely unprecedented.