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$QQQ pulled back 8% from the highs and flushed 5% intraday last week, a rare move. I think we have a tradeable low.
A US-Iran peace deal just confirmed, and $SPCX just landed the largest IPO in history, 19% from pricing on debut. The market still has risk appetite, which bodes well for the Anthropic IPO later this year.
Last week's recap and my watchlist for the upcoming week:
newsletter.valhallatrading.cβ¦
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Valckrie retweeted
Jun 14
Pakistan PM Sharif: Both sides announce immediate, permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon
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Valckrie retweeted
Jun 13
*ANTHROPIC TO DISABLE FABLE 5 AND MYTHOS 5 FOR ALL CUSTOMERS FOLLOWING US GOVT EXPORT DIRECTIVE: BLOG
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With SpaceX $SPCX set to debut today, enjoying a timely reread of @peterkto's blog on trading the Facebook IPO in 2012
churningandburning.com/2023/β¦
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I believe the $QQQ will make new all time highs in ~1 month if not less
- after a 6-sigma event with tech outperformance during the rally out of correction (source: DataTrek research), we should expect such a strong rally to have multiple legs and view the first pullback as a buying opportunity
- rare clusters of -4% days tracking 2000 2020 rally analog all make highs after a month (x.com/Valckrie/status/206364β¦)
- even more rare -5% day selloff on $QQQ that historically marks bottoms (x.com/Valckrie/status/206448β¦)
I am long and positioned accordingly; some of my favourite names either already long or closely watching:
$NBIS $IREN $CIFR $INTC $ARM $AMD $SNDK $MU $BE
$QQQ at the lows today sold off -5.06% from the open
In the last 10~ years this has only happened 5 times (but plenty of times in the post-2000 dotcom bear market)
With the exception of 2018 they were the lows for that correction
What's notable this time is that $QQQ is only 5% off all time highs
Extremely volatility and wide ranges usually mark turning points... did we just bottom?
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$QQQ at the lows today sold off -5.06% from the open
In the last 10~ years this has only happened 5 times (but plenty of times in the post-2000 dotcom bear market)
With the exception of 2018 they were the lows for that correction
What's notable this time is that $QQQ is only 5% off all time highs
Extremely volatility and wide ranges usually mark turning points... did we just bottom?
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$QQQ always bet on TACO
Jun 11
U.S. STOCKS EXTEND GAINS AFTER TRUMP SAYS SCHEDULED STRIKES AGAINST IRAN HAVE BEEN CANCELLED; NASDAQ ADDS 1.3%
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Valckrie retweeted
Jun 11
U.S. STOCKS EXTEND GAINS AFTER TRUMP SAYS SCHEDULED STRIKES AGAINST IRAN HAVE BEEN CANCELLED; NASDAQ ADDS 1.3%
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$NQ $QQQ double bottom at Tuesday's V reversal, potential tradeable low put in
Weak close into a gap up are a common turning pattern in recent years
$QQQ at the lows today sold off -5.06% from the open
In the last 10~ years this has only happened 5 times (but plenty of times in the post-2000 dotcom bear market)
With the exception of 2018 they were the lows for that correction
What's notable this time is that $QQQ is only 5% off all time highs
Extremely volatility and wide ranges usually mark turning points... did we just bottom?
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$SMCI had covered the swing short before they announced the $7bn dilution yesterday
Of course had to hit it again but piked covers all out at $32, and lost on the $30 bounce
Short basket currently and rationale
$NOW late cycle rally software chasers 40% in a few days right into the 200sma on no material news apart from Trump pump optimism
Quantum $RGTI $QBTS selloff into Quantinuum IPO looks like a sell the news event or just quantum enthusiasts raising capital to buy new quantum stock
Crypto charts $MSTR $BMNR look like death and we usually end with capitulation so feels like lower is coming
$SMCI pure sympathy rally to $DELL $HPE earnings beats with air below on backside of move
$SPCE just wallstreetbets retail pump on the wrong ticker into SpaceX
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New Market Wizards book just arrived @jackschwager @gfc4
Congrats to @TheShortBear, @TheOneLanceB and everyone else in the book!
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$QQQ in January 2000 and September 2020 there were clusters of -4% sell days.
But it wasn't the end of the rally and both instances the market ended up making new highs months later.
The market needs to hold and turn at the 50 SMA to follow these analogs.
Two windows fit cleanly.
Jan 2000. Four -4% days in three weeks. Every one higher a month later, 14 to 25%.
Summer 2020. Sold off, recovered, nowhere near the top.
So if you believe the AI bull still has legs, expect price to find a bottom near the 50sma over the next couple of weeks.
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$QQQ second -4% day in last three days
Jun 9
*TRUMP: IRAN SHOT DOWN US APACHE HELICOPTER OVER STRAIT OF HORMUZ
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Valckrie retweeted
Jun 9
*TRUMP: IRAN SHOT DOWN US APACHE HELICOPTER OVER STRAIT OF HORMUZ
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