Real-time value bets & dropping odds alerts | 5% ROI, 15,000 bets tracked | Beat Pinnacle closing line | Proofed by @SBCinfo๐ 7-day free trial
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Jun 15
Weekly Report - Jun 8 to Jun 14 ๐
984 bets logged by VBF users across all sports last week.
-โฌ3,336 profit
-5.7% ROI
2.7% Avg CLV Pinnacle
โฌ1,694 expected profit
The P&L was negative but the edge wasn't.
5 out of 6 sports closed with positive CLV vs Pinnacle.
Basketball the only green P&L at 35.6% ROI.
Tennis was brutal (-17.1% ROI) but posted the strongest CLV of the week ( 3.2%).
Weeks like this are part of value betting. The process was right.
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1, 2, 3, viva l'Algรฉrie ๐ต
Algeria ๐ PMU @ 8.00 ( 700), CLV: 1.1%
Pinnacle fair odds @ 7.48 ( 648). Limit at โฌ200,000.
Market is leaving some room for the upset.
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It was draw fest yesterday at the World Cup.
4 matches, 4 draws and our scanner had flagged 3 of them.
Spain ๐ช๐ธ vs Cape Verde ๐จ๐ป on Polymarket @ 19.23 ( 1823)
Saudi Arabia ๐ธ๐ฆ vs Uruguay ๐บ๐พ on Betclic FR/Unibet FR @ 4.50 ( 350)
Iran ๐ฎ๐ท vs New Zealand ๐ณ๐ฟ on Unibet FR @ 3.65 ( 265)
Spain vs Cape Verde was the wildest one with a massive drop on Pinnacle right before kickoff.
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Jun 15
Classic gambler behavior
๐จBREAKING: Someone just put $1M on Spain to WIN their match vs Cape Verde today
This pays out is $1,085,943.48 on Polymarket
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ValueBetFactory retweeted
Jun 15
Weekly Report - Jun 8 to Jun 14 ๐
984 bets logged by VBF users across all sports last week.
-โฌ3,336 profit
-5.7% ROI
2.7% Avg CLV Pinnacle
โฌ1,694 expected profit
The P&L was negative but the edge wasn't.
5 out of 6 sports closed with positive CLV vs Pinnacle.
Basketball the only green P&L at 35.6% ROI.
Tennis was brutal (-17.1% ROI) but posted the strongest CLV of the week ( 3.2%).
Weeks like this are part of value betting. The process was right.
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2
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339
Jun 15
Weekly Report - Jun 8 to Jun 14 ๐
984 bets logged by VBF users across all sports last week.
-โฌ3,336 profit
-5.7% ROI
2.7% Avg CLV Pinnacle
โฌ1,694 expected profit
The P&L was negative but the edge wasn't.
5 out of 6 sports closed with positive CLV vs Pinnacle.
Basketball the only green P&L at 35.6% ROI.
Tennis was brutal (-17.1% ROI) but posted the strongest CLV of the week ( 3.2%).
Weeks like this are part of value betting. The process was right.
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2
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339
Jun 15
Our newsletter subscribers received the full breakdown earlier today.
Every bet logged this week: date, event, selection, soft odds, Pinnacle fair odds, EV%, closing odds, CLV and result.
984 bets. Full transparency.
If you want to receive it every Monday, register here ๐
fb6dde2a.sibforms.com/serve/โฆ
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Jun 14
World Cup 2026 - Ivory Coast ๐จ๐ฎ vs Ecuador ๐ช๐จ
Draw has been flagged by our scanner every single day for 2 months.
๐ Coral @ 3.25 ( 225)
๐ Bet365/Ladbrokes @ 3.20 ( 220)
๐ FanDuel/HardRock @ 3.10 ( 210)
Current Pinnacle odds @ 2.91 ( 191).
Soft books didn't adjust the whole time, tight game expected.
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Jun 14
I had a conversation with one of our subscribers at the start of the NBA season.
We were talking how the Spurs are underpriced and that they have Wemby, a generational talent.
This morning he sent me this. ๐ญ
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Jun 14
World Cup 2026 - Haiti ๐ญ๐น vs Scotland ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ
Haiti was flagged by our scanner weeks ago:
๐ Polymarket @ 7.69 ( 669)
๐ PMU @ 7.50 ( 650)
Pinnacle is now sitting @ 6.25 ( 525).
Haiti just demolished New Zealand 4-0 in preparation. And can the Scots adapt to the conditions as well as the Haitians?
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Jun 13
Under 3 โ
Great market read here.
And what an upset flagged by our scanner on Polymarket.
Jun 13
World Cup 2026 - Qatar vs Switzerland โฝ
Under 3 goals has been dropping on Pinnacle for the past few hours. From @ 1.95 (-105) to 1.76 (-132) now.
Limit jumped to โฌ200,000 along the way.
The market is leaning towards a tight, low-scoring game.
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Jun 13
World Cup 2026 - Qatar vs Switzerland โฝ
Under 3 goals has been dropping on Pinnacle for the past few hours. From @ 1.95 (-105) to 1.76 (-132) now.
Limit jumped to โฌ200,000 along the way.
The market is leaning towards a tight, low-scoring game.
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Jun 12
USA vs Paraguay. The host nation kicks off its tournament.
๐ต๐พ Paraguay @ 4.17 ( 317) on Polymarket
Current EV: 1.1%
Sorry to our American friends but our scanner and the market have picked a side. Limit at โฌ200,000, that's insane.
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Jun 12
WEEKEND LOADED ๐ฅ
โฝ FOOTBALL
๐ FIFA World Cup 2026: first full weekend. Host nations Canada and USA in action, plus favorites Brazil and Germany.
๐ BASKETBALL
๐บ๐ธ NBA Finals Game 5: title on the line for the Knicks.
๐ฅ MMA
๐บ๐ธ White House Fight Night.
๐๏ธ FORMULA 1
๐ช๐ธ Spanish GP in Catalunya.
๐ด CYCLING
๐ซ๐ท Critรฉrium du Dauphinรฉ: final stages.
Connect your VBF account to Telegram to never miss an alert ๐
valuebetfactory.com
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ValueBetFactory retweeted
Jun 12
Sports betting vs stock investing: is the ROI really comparable?
Most people compare betting ROI to doing nothing.
Wrong comparison. The right one is active trading. ๐งต
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Jun 12
Sports betting vs stock investing: is the ROI really comparable?
Most people compare betting ROI to doing nothing.
Wrong comparison. The right one is active trading. ๐งต
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Jun 12
This assumes the edge is real and bankroll management is solid.
Variance is brutal at this volume. A string of bad beats can wipe out weeks of edge. This is why CLV tracking matters more than short-term results.
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Jun 12
The question isn't "can I win this bet." It's "can I find 10 bets a day where the market is mispriced, and execute fast enough to capture it."
That's the value betting game.
This framing comes from @DoctorRazzWSOP' book "Sharp Money: Lessons From Poker and Sports Betting To Help Grow Your Portfolio." Worth it if this resonated.
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