Fast moving short lived TORNADOES possible
From later today, Saturday the 30th of May, the Central West should start to see thunderstorms initiate along the leading edge of an incoming front. This severe weather is forecast to gradually extend into the Lower West and South West through the evening.
Models are signalling that these cells have a very solid chance of becoming severe, due to a few important ingredients, ample instability, a lifting mechanism being the front, high dew points, great bulk wind shear and the presence of high values of Storm Relative Helicity. (SRH).
In simple terms, SRH measures how much spin is available in the atmosphere for a thunderstorm to ingest, especially in the lower levels. It’s one of the key ingredients looked at for rotating thunderstorms (supercells) and tornado potential.
We have been chasing storms for 25 years throughout the state, and have not seen a setup like this before. Even the Energy Helicity Index is on the charts which we rarely see, in particular at these levels. It’s used to assess the potential for rotating thunderstorms (supercells) and, in stronger environments, tornadoes. It combines INSTABILITY (CAPE) and SRH.
Needless to say residents in the highlighted areas in particular the yellow regions, should remain vigilant later today and into tonight as these cells will go nocturnal.
We may chase this setup later today and live stream for anyone interested.
Please share this information to loved ones if they reside in these areas. Please be SAFE.