I asked Grok to provide a list of all of Elon Musk's timelines for Tesla to achieve self-driving:
2015: Elon Musk predicted that Tesla cars would achieve "full autonomy" by 2018.
2016: Musk claimed that Tesla would be able to demonstrate full autonomy from LA to New York by the following year. He also stated that all Teslas would become robotaxis by 2020.
2018: Musk updated the timeline for "fully self-driving capability" to be within "3 to 6 months" from February 2018.
2019: In April, Musk stated that Tesla would have mainstream cars capable of full autonomy in 5 years or less, with regulatory approval expected 2-3 years after that.
By October, he mentioned Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) would be in an early access program by the end of that year, with full unsupervised driving the following year.
2020: In July 2020, Musk stated that Tesla was "very close" to achieving Level 5 autonomous driving technology and could crack the puzzle that year.
In August, Musk mentioned on X (then Twitter) that the FSD improvement would come as a "quantum leap" and that he drove an alpha build with almost zero interventions between home and work, with a limited public release expected in "6 to 10 weeks."
By October, Musk confirmed on X that the latest build was capable of zero intervention drives, with a limited beta release planned in "a few weeks."
In December 2020, during the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, Musk expressed extreme confidence in achieving Full Self-Driving (FSD) and releasing it to the fleet the next year, with some jurisdictions potentially achieving Level 5 autonomy.
2021: Musk suggested that Tesla would achieve full self-driving that year, with the ability to dispatch cars as robotaxis, and claimed "over 1 million robo-taxis" by the end of the year.
2022: In January, Musk again predicted achieving full self-driving that year.
Later in May, while in Brazil, he announced that Tesla would have self-driving cars without human drivers by around May 2023.
2023: Musk reiterated his confidence in achieving full self-driving by this year.
2024: In October, Musk stated that Tesla would start fully autonomous, unsupervised FSD in Texas and California for the Model 3 and Model Y the next year.
Also in 2024, he mentioned the Cybercab would be in production "before 2027" and predicted unsupervised FSD for Model 3 and Y in California and Texas by next year.
2025: Early in the year, Musk promised a launch of a fully unsupervised version of FSD in Texas, claiming "exponential improvement" in the software.
He also indicated that he would be "shocked" if Tesla couldn't launch unsupervised FSD by 2025.