๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ญ๐ก๐ญ๐๐๐ก (Alpha Ideas Meet Update)
Summary: ๐๏ธ
โช๏ธCDMO with major ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐&๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง-๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ฐ๐ง๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ก๐ข๐ฉโ
& high customer stickiness
โช๏ธ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ง๐๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฒ ๐๐% ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ - to drive FY26 growth
โช๏ธGreenfield expansion by Marโ26 to take overall ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐.๐-๐๐ฑ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐-๐๐๐๐๐ซ๐จ๐ซ๐โ
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โช๏ธOnboarded clients like ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ข๐๐ง๐๐ (24,000Cr MCap Co), ๐๐ ๐๐๐ง๐จ๐ง (๐๐ก๐ซ๐ฒ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฉ ๐๐๐๐ค๐๐), among others
โช๏ธTargeting other high growth consumer segments like ๐๐จ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ, ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐จ๐จ๐, ๐๐ญ๐
โช๏ธ1st in Maharashtra to get FSC 22000 approval in food category - unlocks ๐๐ข๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐๐๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐, ๐๐, ๐๐ญ๐
(Further, my analysis on projections FY26E to FY28E at the end)
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Detailed notes: ๐
๐
๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ง ๐ข๐ง๐ง๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง:
1. Influx is the owner of the formulation with majority of the customers.
2. Eg for Gummies, Protein Bars, etc all base formulations R&D done by Influx
3. Customer stickiness due to importance of taste, texture etc in such products & customer needs consistency
๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ:
1. FSC 22000 - 1st in Maharashtra to get this certification in food category - unlocks direct access to USA, EU, etc
2. First to get Nigeria approval in food category
๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฌ:
1. Serving the top D2C brands such as Carbamide Forte (avg 5-10k ratings per product on Amazon), Tata 1mg, etc
2. Recently onboarded marquee clientele such as Eris Lifescience (24,000Cr MCap co), La Renon (ChrysCap backed), among others
๐๐๐ฐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ฌ:
1. Got approval for Aerosols in Marchโ2025
2. Cosmetics is an area of focus - have developed capabilities for colour cosmetics
3. Pet food is an emerging market - not easy to crack and Influx has been investing in this since 2022 and expect to reap rewards now
๐๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง:
1. ๐ฝ๐ง๐ค๐ฌ๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ก๐ - ๐พ๐ค๐ข๐ฅ๐ก๐๐ฉ๐๐ก๐ฎ ๐ค๐ ๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฃ๐๐ก ๐๐๐๐ง๐ช๐๐ก๐จ
- Capacity at existing unit increased by 60% *
- Includes new granulation line, capsule line (increases capsule capacity by 4x)
โถ๏ธSo revenue potential in my view should be 170-180Cr from this unit
2. ๐๐ง๐๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ก๐ - ๐๐ช๐ฉ ๐ค๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ช๐ฃ๐๐จ:
- Expected completion by Marโ25/Aprโ25
- This unit will increase overall capacity by 2.5-3.0x
โฉ๏ธSo revenue potential from both units will be 450-500Cr
View on Promoter Mr Munir: Superb clarity & immense Passion for the business
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No projections shared by management. But my view:
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๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐๐๐-๐๐๐๐๐ซ ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐-๐๐๐๐ซโ
(Brownfield expansion)
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๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ซ ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐-๐๐๐๐ซโ
(New unit at 40-50% utilisation)
๐
๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ซ ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐-๐๐๐๐ซ
(Ramp up new unit to 85-90% utilisation)
A very strong consumer wellness co trading at 15x FY26E ; 9x FY27E vs peers / proxies at 30-35PE
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* Unlocked 40% of capacity at existing unit i.e. utilisation which was 93% would now be at 53-55%. This means 60-65% increase in overall capacity
NOTE: Not a buy / sell reco | DYODD
๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ญ๐ก๐ญ๐๐๐ก (Update)
A ๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐๐ / ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ๐๐ซ ๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐
Main Board quality company on SME platform
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Promoter quality Manufacturing facility - Both are TOP Notch
Detailed analysis๐๐ป
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Co is engaged in CDMO (end-to-end right from ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐) for Nutraceutical brands
๐น๐๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐จ๐ฉ ๐ง๐ฎ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ:
1. Carbamide Forte (products - superb ratings on Amazon)
2. โ Divine nutrition - one of a well known brand in supplement etc
3. โ In talks with ON nutrition (US based- considered one of the top of industry)
๐น๐๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ:
- Net debt free
- โ Historical consistent Operating Cash Flows (OCF) to EBITDA of 50-60%
- โ Continuous capex over last 3-4 yrs funded out of internal accruals
๐น๐๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ - ๐๐จ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ (๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง) & ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐๐ซ๐ฒ
- Setting up separate lines for these out of IPO funds
- Focus is on increasing this contribution from 5% currently to 15-20% in next 3 yrs
๐นCapex from IPO funds : ๐.๐๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฉ๐ซโ๐๐ (9 months from now)
- ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐-๐๐๐๐๐ซ โ
๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ฑ
๐นFinancials/Projections (conservative):
FY25: Rev 105Cr ; PAT 13.4Cr
FY26E: Rev 175Cr ; PAT 23-24Crโ
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๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฏ ๐๐๐๐๐ซ ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐-๐๐๐๐ซ โ
Margin profile in line with peers like Zeon Lifesciences (unlisted) gives additional comfort
๐นPeer comparison (can check tagged tweet) - ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ญ ๐๐% ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐จ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ / ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฌ
- No direct competitors, covered proxies (CDMO pharma, Nutraceutical brand owners, Consumer contract mfr)
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Disc: Not a buy / sell reco | DYODD