Sports Betting Originator 🧠 | EV is cool, but bottom up is way cooler | Models all hand built | Open to work

Joined November 2021
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Excited to launch a new version of my website. You can gain access to all our models at once finally (as many have been asking for), and get all model picks delivered into one discord channel. 🧠 I work tirelessly on these models, to try to make profitable tools for myself and others to use, and hoping you guys continue supporting that. Every pick is tracked, every game and market is analyzed. Full transparency for TRULY the best models on the market. whizard.buildr.bet
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This is your counterparty.
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6ks on 55 strikes with 38 balls. Gets it on his last batter… ump was shit as well. One of those that should have been easy but of course it never is ❌
MLB K Prop bet for today: Nolan McLean u5.5k ( 117){DK}🧠 DK Hanging a pretty nasty price here. We have it close to his line, but 56% to keep it under 5.5. Bad matchup for him against a good Atlanta lineup, but also a high swing and miss pitcher. Like the value on the DK line, playable up to about -108.
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Whizard retweeted
MLB K Prop bet for today: Nolan McLean u5.5k ( 117){DK}🧠 DK Hanging a pretty nasty price here. We have it close to his line, but 56% to keep it under 5.5. Bad matchup for him against a good Atlanta lineup, but also a high swing and miss pitcher. Like the value on the DK line, playable up to about -108.
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NHL Stanley Cup Game 5 bet for today: CAR/VGK 3x1 DRAW ( 310){DK}🧠 Have been riding the draw all year, and all series. Model lines up pretty close to market in the 2 way market, but as has happened all year, books leave the draw a bit too high than what happens in reality. People love to bet the 3x1 in regulation as it seems like a nice way to get a odds boost, but the draw is usually heavily neglected, meaning it really typically does not become very efficient ever. Obviously this is a super small edge. But still worth the shot.
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🤔⁉️
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*Chuckles* The free picks luck is in danger.
MLB K Prop bet for today: Payton Tolle o5.5k ( 100){BOV}🧠 Have a pretty high variance play here, could explode, could have 2. Market has him at around even odds, model says value up to around -115 at this number. Rays are stingy so this is a bit scary but model has him a full 1 above the market.
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-5.2% move against us was an uphill battle to begin with.
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Line opened at 11.5..... Line gets pushed to 13.5 by first pitch..... finishes at 12 runs.....🤔
Replying to @BallparkPal
Classic case of lines that are going to be greatly inflated today on a small sample.
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❌Why did i say that in the caption?
MLB K Prop bet for today: Payton Tolle o5.5k ( 100){BOV}🧠 Have a pretty high variance play here, could explode, could have 2. Market has him at around even odds, model says value up to around -115 at this number. Rays are stingy so this is a bit scary but model has him a full 1 above the market.
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Whizard retweeted
MLB K Prop bet for today: Payton Tolle o5.5k ( 100){BOV}🧠 Have a pretty high variance play here, could explode, could have 2. Market has him at around even odds, model says value up to around -115 at this number. Rays are stingy so this is a bit scary but model has him a full 1 above the market.
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I get asked at least once a week what LLM / AI tool I use to help build my origination models. I typically just send this back….
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Yes I have chicken scratch.
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Can’t get a K. Not gonna get it done ❌
MLB K Prop bet for today: Yoshinobu Yamamoto o6.5k (-152){FD}🧠 2u play here, a bit pricey...... but WAYYYY over his line at 6.5, would also take at 7.5 but for half the units. Model has him at 8.4 mean, and fair price closer to -215. 6.5 is playable up to -172. 24-5, 19.13u in our 29 MLBK free plays this year. 🧠
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MLB K Prop bet for today: Yoshinobu Yamamoto o6.5k (-152){FD}🧠 2u play here, a bit pricey...... but WAYYYY over his line at 6.5, would also take at 7.5 but for half the units. Model has him at 8.4 mean, and fair price closer to -215. 6.5 is playable up to -172. 24-5, 19.13u in our 29 MLBK free plays this year. 🧠
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Another W 🧢✅👍
MLB K Prop bet for today: Coleman Crow u3.5k ( 106){DK}🧠 Bit of a weird one here, model has Crow projected OVER his line of 3.5, but the wide distribution brings his chances to actually get to the mean projection down. Model has fair price for this one at -120, and playable up to anything around -102.
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9 strikeout free pick Ws in a row 17-1 in last 18
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MLB K Prop bet for today: Coleman Crow u3.5k ( 106){DK}🧠 Bit of a weird one here, model has Crow projected OVER his line of 3.5, but the wide distribution brings his chances to actually get to the mean projection down. Model has fair price for this one at -120, and playable up to anything around -102.
Also 16-4 on free picks this month... Just an unbelievable run. Variance going our way this month.🧠
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MLB props variance has just been insanely bad to me this week. 15 losses by the hook out of 27 total.... give me 3-4 of those and would have had a great week... Way she goes. Free pick coming today.
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