Stay safe out there, folks. It’s a hard market for pros, and it’s a hard market for everyone. I’ve had so many “throw the towel” moments in trading in the past during periods like this. Probably some of you are feeling the pain. That’s the reality of trading. From everything you touched working out two months ago to nasty action for weeks now . Things change rapidly. They always do. The good thing is, through experience you tend to see the clues that lead to these periods and be more prepared when they happen. But that’s not really the solution. Because you’re not always correct, and you can’t have a control of the duration. And the duration is what induces most of the pain. Honestly, nothing else made sense universally except building my foundation around asymmetry and a few extreme outliers per year, and then pushing all my efforts in the following years into increasing that overall outlier % chance. Life, trading, and mental capital have become easier since then. And I’ve never changed since. If you keep reminding yourself that you only need 5–10 outliers per year to have a great year, FOMO is reduced by a big magnitude. It makes it easier to be a watcher rather than an active participant in these moments. It really makes it easier to sit through months of being infrequent and testing the waters while preserving your principal capital. It makes it easier to not jump the gun with every positive sign, but to really wait for healthy action before going in heavily. It takes quite a few periods like these to learn to appreciate it, but if your goal is longevity in this game you'll get it. A perfect system shouldn’t force you to make more trades to make more money. A perfect system is one that lets you profit significantly, even if you spend large portions of the year quietly observing and assessing your environment until you strike hard . A system that rewards thought and patience over rapid, impulsive action. Keep that in mind.

I hope NYC is listening

93 yr old WWII veteran that played football for Kansas University in 1948 got a chance to score a touchdown on that field one last time

This is all you really need to succeed in stock trading 💪👇 (But most traders skip the hard part) 1. Market Trend Model: Know when to be aggressive — and when to stay out. 2. Stock Selection: Pick stocks that can move 50–100% in the right market. 3. Setup: Flags, flat bases, VCPs, gap-ups — the pattern must offer structure and potential. 4. Trained Pattern Brain: You must see the pattern fast. That comes from years of exposure and review. 5. Risk Management & Position Sizing: Risk 1% per trade max. Stop 7–10%. Size 10–15%. Keep it simple — and consistent. 6. Entry and exit rules: When to enter on a good pattern. Use simple exit methods like EMA 8 / 21 trailing stop, climax top. 7. Patience & Discipline: The hardest part. Conviction in your system takes time, pain, and repetition. It sounds simple — and it is. But simple doesn’t mean easy. Most won’t do the work. If you will, you can become a success. I’ve helped thousands of traders get there — so can you.

Still Watching 50 Charts? You’re Doing It Wrong 👇

Wow. Former hostage Edan Alexander, an American from New Jersey, told President Trump that as soon as he was elected, the terrorists in Gaza started treating him much better. The terrorists were genuinely terrified of Trump.

We’re up 80% on $HOOD since the original buy point! 🚀💰 Here’s exactly how we traded it — and how you can learn to spot similar setups 👇 1. Showed relative strength during the market correction — a key signal of leadership 2. Tight flag pattern formed inside a large W-bottom base 3. Breakout upgap gave us the buy signal we waited for 4. Innovative story: A new kind of fintech brokerage with long-term potential 5. Explosive sales growth: 36%, 115%, 50% YoY in the last 3 quarters 6. Massive EPS growth: 289%, > 1,000%, 106% YoY 7. Top IBD ratings — confirming fundamental and technical strength 8. Strong forward estimates added conviction We took profits into strength — now we’re holding and watching for a clear sell signal. These patterns repeat. You just need to learn them — and trust them. I’ve taught this process to thousands of traders. You can learn it too. Learn how to trade high-potential stocks — the right way.

I awoke this morning gravely concerned about New York City. I thought “What has NYC become that an avowed socialist who has supported defunding the police, whose solution to lowering food prices is city-owned supermarkets, who doesn’t understand that freezing rents will only reduce the supply of housing, who has no experience managing an organization -- let alone a city with a $100 billion budget and a $2 trillion economy -- and who believes chants for ‘Globalizing the Intifada’ are acceptable, wins the Democratic Primary. After speaking to those who supported @ZohranKMamdani, I believe that he won the primary largely not due to his policies, but rather because he is a superb politician who ran a remarkable and inspiring campaign. He is intelligent and articulate. He is young and charming, and he successfully played down incriminating @X posts and statements from his past, pitching a joyful campaign of unity. And he won because the competition was very weak. His best competitor sat back and did not run a real campaign, relying on name recognition, early favorable polling and keeping a low profile to make it through. Not a strategy that I have ever seen work, but so be it. The Democratic primary voter is clearly tired of the Democratic politics of the past and its aging and over-the-hill leadership – Who isn’t? [As a case in point, how embarrassing is it to watch aging Dems fall in line with their tweets of support for Mamdani, as they desperately try to defend their seats from the far left?] And therefore, without any real competition, Zohran and his attractive personal qualities and campaign skills magically make him the candidate of the future. The problem, however, is that his policies would be disastrous for NYC. Socialism has no place in the economic capital of our country. The ability for NYC to offer services for the poor and needy, let alone the average New Yorker, is entirely dependent on NYC being a business-friendly environment and a place where wealthy residents are willing to spend 183 days and assume the associated tax burden. Unfortunately, both have already started making arrangements for the exits. Mamdani is right that much about NYC is broken. The City has gotten much less safe while the cost of living here has become increasingly unattainable for many. We pay more for less. Unfortunately, his headline campaign promises of frozen rents and cheaper food from city-owned markets, among others, are certain to fail. A mayor who disrespects the NYPD and has called for their defunding will get less effective policing, and Bratton’s ‘broken window theory’ will operate in reverse. A mayor who condones hate speech will incentivize more hate speech and violence. Words matter, and yes, they can inspire people to kill as we have recently tragically seen in our country and around the world. New York City under Mamdani is about to become much more dangerous and economically unviable. Unlike our Federal government, NYC cannot print money, and this Federal Government won’t bail NYC out if things go bad. In fact, Mamdani would be a windfall for the Republican Party as NY becomes another failed major city run by Democrats alongside Seattle, Chicago, LA, and SF et al as Senator Fetterman so eloquently stated today, "I'd describe it as Christmas in July for the GOP." So why did I become optimistic later this morning? The answer is that NYC has woken up in the last 24 hours. The substantial majority of NYC residents understand that socialism is a failed system, that rent freezes will destroy our housing base and shrink the affordable housing supply while killing new construction, and that an anti-capitalist Mayor will destroy jobs and cause businesses and wealthy taxpayers that have enabled NYC to balance the budget to move elsewhere. If 100 or so of the highest taxpayers in my industry chose to spend 183 days elsewhere, it could reduce NY state and city tax revenues by ~$5-10 billion or more, and that’s just my industry. Think Ken Griffin leaving Chicago for Miami on steroids. The good news is that there are other charismatic, intelligent, articulate, handsome, charming, young yet more experienced and, importantly, more centrist politicians who are New York residents eligible for office. There are also extremely talented members of the NY business community who could be superb mayors, Bloomberg being the reference standard from the past. And the setup is extremely attractive for a run for mayor. There are only 132 days until the election, which means the commitment of time to run is de minimis. This will be the most closely watched mayoral election in NYC in decades, perhaps ever, which, particularly in the social media and podcast era creates the opportunity for a new candidate to garner immediate name recognition, enormous media interest, and the visibility needed to get elected. Importantly, there are hundreds of million of dollars of capital available to back a competitor to Mamdani that can be put together overnight (believe me, I am in the text strings and the WhatsApp groups) so that a great alternative candidate won’t spend any time raising funds. So, if the right candidate would raise his or her hand tomorrow, the funds will pour in. I am sure that Mike Bloomberg will share his how-to-win-the-mayoralty IP and deliver his entire election apparatus and system to the aspiring candidate so that the candidate can focus all of his or her energy on the campaign. One unfortunate fact, as far as I understand, is that the candidate will have to be a write-in as I believe that none of the current candidates established a nominating committee if they were to withdraw, which means that no one can take their spot on the ballot. This is such an important election, however, that I believe the write-in requirement could actually turn into an important call to action that brings people in throngs to the polls. It therefore won’t be the game stopper it would normally be in a typical election. As a result, the risk/reward of running for mayor over the next 132 days is extremely compelling as the cost in time and energy is small, and the upside is enormous. If the candidate does not win, there is no harm, no foul, because the perceived probability of beating the Democratic nominee in a NYC mayoral election is extremely small. Therefore, there is no reputational risk to losing this election, and the corresponding reputational benefits are extraordinary whether one wins or loses. If the candidate wins, this is obviously a huge home run for the City and the candidate, but it is also an opportunity to save the Democratic Party from itself, grabbing the wheel just before the party goes even further off the cliff. The new mayor would be a national superhero for the City, for the Party, and for the country. For the aspiring politician, there is no better way to get name recognition, build relationships with long-term donors, and to showcase oneself than to run for mayor over the next 132 days. This election is already global front page news. For the aspiring young candidate, the amount of publicity and the massive followers to be gained are of incalculable long-term value whether they win or lose, and whatever they choose to do in the future, business, politics or otherwise. And there is a defensive reason for a politician to run. For the more centrist Democrat politician, a Mamdani win is very bad for your next election. As the Party veers further to the left, the Party’s backing for your future candidacy deteriorates substantially as Mamdani and AOC take control of the Party. In my experience, opportunities with minimal downside that don’t require huge investments of time while offering massive upside get filled. If you were ever thinking about running for office, or running for a higher office than you currently hold, this is likely the best opportunity that you are going to have. All of the above is not just theory, as I have a superb candidate who I believe can win who meets all of the criteria, but if I were to say his name or even reach out to him, it would have a negative effect on his candidacy, as I am a supporter of President Trump, and that alone taints anyone I would recommend for many and perhaps most NYC Democratic Party members. So rather than my making suggestions, I welcome yours. Who is your best centrist candidate who could go toe-to-toe with Mamdani on the campaign trail and on the debate stage? Let’s crowdsource the names and then do a poll. If someone is ready to raise their hand, I will take care of the fundraising. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the right candidate. More importantly, it is an opportunity to save our City and be a superhero. Life is short and you must dare to be great. The time is now.

It was too depressing to write this last night, after we got off air, so I went to bed. But, it needs to be said by more Democrats: this was not an impeachable offense, and Trump did not need congressional approval for one precision attack under the circumstances, just as Obama did not when striking Bin Laden. Why can’t our Party just say it’s great we achieved the objective and destroyed Iran’s nuclear sites, god bless the soldiers who carried this out and made it home safely, god bless our country, military, allies, and we look forward to a full intel briefing. 🇺🇸. If one must then assert Congressional authority at the moment, add that any escalation will require congressional approval. And if you must, express concern for where this may go and what might come next. But, for so many in my Party to knee jerk with unhinged calls for impeachment - and sadly omit in their statement support for Iran not having nuclear weapons, which has been a principle of our Party for 40 years -is truly TDS.

CAIR is the group funding @ZohranKMamdani. In other words, CAIR is aligned both with Iran and Mamdani, a dangerous and catastrophic choice for mayor of NYC.

Dear @POTUS @realDonaldTrump It’s time. The clock is ticking, and history is calling your name. God put you on this Earth for a reason, and that reason is staring us in the face: America must take out Iran’s nuclear program—starting with the fortress of Fordow—and make the world safe again. This is your mission, Mr. President, and yours alone. Stop listening to the pundits, the naysayers, the weak-kneed diplomats. Be the brave, decisive leader we know you are. Act fast. Act deliberately. Finish this. Let’s get one thing straight: this isn’t Israel’s fight alone. Yes, Israel—the “Little Satan” in the eyes of Iran’s fanatical regime—is on the front lines, battling the IRGC’s proxies and missiles. But don’t be fooled—America is the “Big Satan” they’re really after. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps isn’t hiding its goal: they want to wipe Israel off the map as a warm-up, then turn their sights on us. Iran’s nuclear program isn’t a bargaining chip; it’s a dagger aimed at the heart of the free world. Israel is fighting your war, Mr. President, but only you can end it. Iran’s nuclear ambitions aren’t a theory—they’re a fact. The Fordow facility, dug into a mountain like a dictator’s bunker, is churning out enriched uranium at a terrifying pace. The International Atomic Energy Agency reports Iran’s stockpile is already at 60% purity—close enough to weapons-grade to produce multiple bombs in weeks. Weeks, Mr. President. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman, a voice of reason amid the chaos, has warned that Israel’s recent strikes have “degraded Iran’s defenses,” giving you a “lowest-risk, highest-probability moment” to strike Fordow and cripple their program. He’s right—this is your window. A nuclear Iran doesn’t just threaten Tel Aviv; it risks igniting World War III, with America in the crosshairs. This cancer didn’t begin yesterday. It started with Carter’s weakness, letting the Iranian Revolution fester into a terrorist state. It grew under Obama and Biden, who handed Iran a sham nuclear deal that fueled their centrifuges with cash and time. You saw through that farce, Mr. President, pulling us out in 2018 and taking down Qasem Soleimani like the rabid dog he was. But the job’s not done. Iran’s regime is the world’s top sponsor of terror—Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis—and their nukes are the ultimate weapon to metastasize that evil globally. One strike, fast and deliberate, can end it. This won’t be a “forever war”—it’ll be the knockout punch that brings peace through strength. Imagine it, Mr. President: by crushing Iran’s nuclear threat, you don’t just save the world—you give Iran’s people a chance to reclaim their heritage. Persia, the land of King Cyrus, was once a beacon of civilization. Today, it’s shackled by a regime obsessed with death and destruction. Take out their nukes, and you plant the seed for a freer Iran—a nation that could rise again under your watch. That’s not just strategy; it’s poetry. It’s a legacy worth fighting for. You’ve faced it all—assassination attempts, political witch hunts, a corrupt establishment trying to tear you down. They failed because you’re stronger than they’ll ever be. This is why you’re here. The same regime cheering your enemies tried to kill you, shot at your legacy, and will try again if given the chance. Don’t let them. Be courageous. Be bold. One swift move, and you’ll go down as the most consequential American president in history—not just for America, but for the world. When Fordow lies in ruins and Iran’s nuclear dreams are dust, the admiration will pour in. Not just from your base, but from all Americans—even the doubters—and from every corner of the globe. You’ll have done what Carter couldn’t, what Obama and Biden wouldn’t. You’ll have ended a nightmare and secured a future. The time is now, Mr. President. The window’s closing, and the stakes are existential. Godspeed, sir. Take out Iran’s nukes. Finish the mission. Make your mark on history.

In summary, as can be gleaned by the responses to my post: x.com/BillAckman/status/1934… those opposed to America assisting Israel in destroying Iran’s nuclear reactors make the following arguments: “It’s not our problem. We shouldn’t put U.S. lives at risk for Israel’s war. It risks dragging us into another war like the Great War on Terror. It is a waste of taxpayer money. And one shouldn’t take Bill’s advice because he is Jewish and supports Israel.” In response to the above, I thought it would be helpful to make a purely America First argument for our assisting Israel in destroying Iran’s nuclear capability. Iran’s Principal Target is the United States as the ‘Great Satan’ Iran has made it entirely clear that Israel is not their only target. The Iranian leadership has for decades continually called not only for “Death to Israel,” but also for “Death to America” as the “Great Satan.” Iranian sponsorship of terror in the U.S. and its continued progress in its ballistic missile program create serious, longer-term threats to our safety and security at home and abroad. Low Energy Costs are Threatened by a Nuclear Capable Iran Putting aside the direct risks to our homeland, a nuclear Iran would threaten global energy production and increase energy costs in America with Iran’s ability to strike Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the other Gulf states, and its ability to control and interfere with shipping in the Middle East. So even if you don’t care about Israel and you only care about the price of gas at the pump, you don’t want Iran to have the nuke. Iran Denuded of Its Nuclear Threat Sets up the Potential for a More Peaceful Middle East and Reduces Risks to Civilians A denuclearized Iran and the destruction of the IRGC leadership, which is well underway as I write this post, create the potential for a much more peaceful Middle East as Iran has been the largest sponsor of terror in the Middle East with its funding of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. For example, without Iran’s support, Hamas would not have been emboldened to invade Israel on October 7th, and Israel would not have been forced to respond to extirpate Hamas, with the collateral damage to civilians created by a terrorist group embedded in tunnels under schools, hospitals, and homes. By limiting the funding for and terrorist acts of Hamas and other Iranian proxies, you also minimize the risk to civilians of the inevitable responses to these terrorist acts. Iran’s Proxies in the Region Have Caused Shipping Costs and Global Risk Premiums to Rise The Houthis have attacked more than 100 ships as well as our bases in Iraq and Syria, killing sailors and harming our military personnel while massively disrupting trade. The result has been substantially increased shipping costs, which are ultimately borne by U.S. businesses and consumers. Our military and navy have recently responded to these attacks at considerable economic cost to our country and risk to our military. Eliminating Iran’s nuclear threat and the IRGC’s funding of the Houthis will dramatically reduce these costs and risks. Massive Peace Dividends for the United States (and the World) Will Emerge Without the Iranian Threat Reducing the funding for Iran’s proxies in the region creates the potential for further progress with the Abraham Accords, setting up the region for greater economic progress and peace. A more peaceful Middle East will become an even greater contributor to the global economy and a massive source of business for U.S. companies and their employees as Saudi, Qatar, and the other Gulf States modernize and diversify their economies, a peace dividend that the U.S. is uniquely positioned to cash. The Risk and Cost to the U.S. Assisting Israel in Destroying Iran’s Nuclear Capability is Limited Once Israel is Nearly Finished with the Job Over the last three days, Israel has made remarkable progress in eliminating Iran’s air defenses, destroying IRGC leadership, nuclear scientists and police leadership, and beginning to degrade Iran’s nuclear capability. Iran will soon be largely defenseless, certainly from the air. Unfortunately, however, Israel will only be able to delay Iran’s nuclear capability and not destroy it without our assistance, in particular, without our bombers and massive ordinance penetration bombs. President @realDonaldTrump has made clear as recently as yesterday that he cannot allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon: "For those people who say they want peace -- you can't have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon. So for all of those wonderful people who don't want to do anything about Iran having a nuclear weapon -- that's not peace." To complete the mission, our military and our assets are needed to destroy Iran’s nuclear assets. Doing so does not require troops on the ground. It can be accomplished from the air in a few days at relatively low cost. Importantly, there is no real risk of “being dragged into a long war” as our role here is simply a short-term tactical participation in Israel’s battle. In fact, if we were able to lend these assets to Israel, and the IAF were sufficiently trained to use them, the Israelis could do it themselves. There is also no real risk that our assistance here causes Iran to become a bigger threat to the U.S. The opposite is the case. The IRGC and its leadership already consider us their most important enemy. We are already assisting Israel by defending them from Iranian missiles and drones with U.S. aircraft, naval warships, and personnel, and by sharing intelligence. Furthermore, Israel is clearly in process on achieving regime change in Iran in response to the IRGC targeting Israeli civilians in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Haifa etc. rather than military targets. I would surmise, therefore, that the IRGC is not likely to be in power in Iran for much longer. An obvious tell is that the IRGC and their families have been leaving the country on private planes over the last two days. A denuclearized Iran with new leadership is much lower risk to the United States than the current regime with its continued aspirations to achieve nuclear capability and destroy America. In short, you don’t need to care about Israel to conclude that using a limited amount of U.S. military assets for a few days to eliminate Iran’s ability to become a nuclear power makes sense. Doing so greatly improves our security and our economy while reducing inflation risk, and increases American jobs at home and abroad. It also greatly reduces risks to our soldiers stationed in the Middle East and to our shipping resources operating in the region. Importantly, our intervention now can be achieved at low risk and limited cost, and executed in a matter of days once Israel is done setting the table. I welcome any arguments to the contrary as I have yet to find a compelling one.

I have been trading stocks for 43 years and have made more money than most people dream of, and still I would NEVER trust my gut over the chart and the verdict of the market. And that's precisely why I can say the former. Go ahead Negatoilets... say it... I'm bragging. Lol! 🤣 #FnClowns

It’s happppennning.

My 3 top performing open stock positions are all triple-digit gains: $NVDA $META $PLTR Next is $SPOT 86%. - I had been stopped out or closed a profitable position lower in each of these stocks before taking these buys. - The charts from the buys at the time are below. In all cases I added to these original buys as they worked higher (sized up). I have booked some gains in all. - I missed the lows by a mile. - Each chart was at least a double off the 52-week lows, or more - $NVDA was almost 3x off the lows. - Each chart was breaking out to 11-month or longer highs - my favorite buy signal. Key takeaways: - You are going to take stops along the way on the road to finding your biggest winners. - If you have a fear of being stopped out, of volatility or of losing money, you will generally get shaken out in routine pullbacks or vol. Size down to where you can follow your trade plan. - Structure your position correctly going in, to account for outlier volatility, so that you don't shake out on a red day. - If you follow a consistent process & good buy signal manage your risk and position sizing and still get stopped out - that's NOT a bad trade. - If you break your rules, get reckless, overtrade or size too big and get stopped out - that IS a bad trade. Even if you make money, it can still be a bad trade. - You can miss the lows by a mile and still get major winners. - What looks too high to some, is just getting started to others. - Don't let getting stopped out or selling lower stop you from taking another proper buy signal higher. - The prior trade outcome does not determine the next trade outcome. - Every trade is a new trade/clean slate. Whether you made big money in a stock before or got stopped out, it has no bearing on what happens next. - Work on staying consistent every day and focus more on your process than the outcome. - Often, doing nothing is the best answer. - You can adjust your process after a series of outcomes if you see that adjustments need to be made, but don't "system jump" and try to change your rules based on every single outcome. - Don't use random buy signals. One is ideal, two is acceptable. Putting 5-10 indicators on your charts and cherry picking one that might signal is a bad bet. - Once you find a process that works for you, your timeframe, your mindset and your ability to adhere to the process, work on executing that to the best of your abilities.