Joined October 2012
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"GRET STET" RUNOFF EARLY VOTING, DAYS 1 2
Turnout picked up some yesterday, but is still BAD. Some specifics:
(1) Total: 43,186 (down 59% compared to primary Day 1 2)
(2) In person down 52%/mail down 67%
(3) Race: 74-23% white/black (65-32% in primary)
(1/2)
1
1
6
1,394
(4) Party: 52-34% Rep/Dem (44-41% Dem/Rep in primary)
(5) Top EVing parishes: EBR (6,435), St Tamm (4,892), Lafayette (2,207), Caddo (2,065)
(6) Early turnout projection: 12-21% overall (this est adjusted every day)
(2/2)
1
1
7
1,025
Jun 13
EARLY VOTING, DAY 1
JMC's soundbite: "people aren't into this election - at ALL"
Whether it's the timing (during vacation season/a week before the 4th of July), Day 1 numbers were bad. How bad?
(1/)
3
1
6
2,754
Jun 13
(1) TOT: 24,365 (down 69% compared to primary Day 1)
(2) In person down 65%/mail down 73%
(3) Race: 75-23% white/black (66-31% in primary)
(4) Party: 51-35% Rep/Dem (45-40% Dem/Rep in primary)
(5) Very early turnout projection: 10-30% overall (this est adjusted every day)
(2/2)
1
8
1,081
Jun 12
COMING TOMORROW
With early voting underway in the Gret Stet, JMC will have initial statewide turnout projections.
6
1,515
Jun 12
CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR, 6/12 PM
Up to 9.025M, 97% complete
Becerra (D): 28.0% (NC)
Hilton (R): 24.8% (NC/ 194K over Steyer)
Steyer (D) 22.7% ( 0.1%)
Bianco (R) 10.3% ( 0.1%)
Aggregate Dem v Rep vote: 62.3-36.3% (NC D)
(1/2)
2
2
10
4,670
Jun 12
Hilton lead over Steyer is currently 194K
Unprocessed ballots projected to take away 15.5K
Leaving Hilton ahead 178.5K when all is said and done
(The unprocessed ballots report was updated at 1PM. Calculations below)
(2/2)
1
4
1,569
Jun 12
EARLY VOTING TIME AGAIN !!
Early voting begins today and continues until June 20 (no EVing on Juneteenth) for the June 27 runoff. Dem/Rep US Senate runoffs are at the top of the ballot, but there is also PSC, BESE, and (for EBR, anyway) several tax renewals.
1
6
1,214
Jun 11
CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR, 6/10 PM
Up to 8.81M, 94% complete
Becerra (D): 28.0% ( 0.1%)
Hilton (R): 24.8% (-0.2%/ 192K over Steyer)
Steyer (D) 22.6% (NC)
Bianco (R) 10.2% ( 0.1%)
Aggregate Dem v Rep vote: 62.3-36.1% (NC D)
(1/2)
2
2
20
2,586
Jun 11
Hilton lead over Steyer is currently 192K
Unprocessed ballots projected to take away 31K
Leaving Hilton ahead 161K when all is said and done
(The unprocessed ballots report was updated at 5PM. Calculations below)
(2/2)
6
1,157
Jun 10
CALIFORNIA, GOVERNOR AND CONGRESS
JMC wanted to illustrate the "dark blue" hues of the "overtime vote" in the Golden State for both the Governors race and all 52 Congressional races over a week's time.
2
4
9
2,026
Jun 10
IOW, this is an illustration of why Spencer Pratt missed out on the runoff/why there was ET speculation that Tom Steyer might do the same.
However, CA is (relatively speaking) "redder" than LA County, which is why I discounted the idea that Steyer could become "#2"
3
5
1,228
Jun 10
PARTY PRIMARY TURNOUT, 2014-2026
1. n=19 states with measurable statewide D/R primary turnout (incl 6/9 primaries)
2. Dem turnout consistently higher than 2022, while GOP turnout lower
3. JMC has used primary turnout to measure the "political climate" for each midterm cycle.
2
4
15
3,860
Jun 10
(SC) VALUE OF A TRUMP ENDORSEMENT
(70% of precicnt vote in)
Early: Evette 27.2-Wilson 26.9
EDay: Evette 30.5-Wilson 25.5
OVERALL: Evette 29.3-Wilson 26
1
4
1,950
Jun 10
CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR, 6/9 PM
Up to 8.47M, 91% complete
Becerra (D): 27.9% ( 0.2%)
Hilton (R): 25.0% (-0.1%/ 202K over Steyer)
Steyer (D) 22.6% ( 0.3%)
Bianco (R) 10.1% (-0.2%)
Aggregate Dem v Rep vote: 62.3-36.3% ( 0.3% D)
(1/2)
1
5
1,830
Jun 10
Hilton surplus:
Currently 202K
Unprocessed ballots projected to take away 65K
Leaving Hilton ahead 137K when all is said and done
(The unprocessed ballots report was updated at 5PM. Calculations below)
(2/2)
1
1
5
1,280
Jun 10
VALUE OF A TRUMP ENDORSEMENT
In South Carolina, about 80% of the vote reporting so far is early, and Evette is 1 point ahead of Alan Wilson.
Among Election Day vote, she's up 10 (34-24%)
In other words, I expect her vote share to increase throughout the night.
2
6
1,652
CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR, 6/9 NOON
888K more counted, up to 7.88M
Becerra (D): 27.7% ( 0.6%)
Hilton (R): 25.1% (-0.8%/ 218K over Steyer)
Steyer (D) 22.3% ( 0.8%)
Bianco (R) 10.3% (-0.3%)
Aggregate Dem v Rep vote: 62-36.6% ( 1.2% D)
(1/2)
1
1
11
2,506
Hilton surplus:
Currently 217K
Unprocessed ballots projected to take away 100K
Leaving Hilton ahead 117K when all is said and done
(The unprocessed ballots report was updated at noon. Calculations below)
(2/2)
5
1,284