SUPER BOWL FREE PLAY SEAHAWKS -4.5 With Bill Belichick at the helm and Tom Brady behind center, you knew what kind of team the Patriots were fielding each week and you felt pretty confident that they were going to be playing deep into January. With a new regime in charge in Foxborough, the 2025-26 edition of the Patriots has more questions than any Super Bowl-caliber team in recent memory. A Division Round win over the Texans where New England generated 3.9 yards per play, went 3-of-14 on third down and turned the ball over three times; and 3) A conference championship win over Denver where the Patriots' only touchdown was scored off a fumble at the Broncos' 12-yard-line. Pro Football Reference maintains a strength of schedule metric that combines the winning percentages of a team's opponents. Not only did the Patriots have the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this year, they would have the easiest strength of schedule (by a significant margin) of any Super Bowl-winning team in the last 20 years. New England has advanced to Super Bowl LX with QB Drake Maye going 43-of-77 (55.8-percent) through the air in three playoff games with two interceptions, six fumbles and 15 sacks. Maye has also surprisingly appeared on the Patriots' injury report leading up to the game with both an illness and a shoulder issue. Maye missed one practice and was a limited participant in another. Patriots' head coach Mike Vrabel said that his team has been battling some illnesses in recent weeks. This will be the second Super Bowl at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara after the Broncos beat the Panthers here ten years ago. It was sunny and 76* at kickoff of that game. Early forecasts look promising for central California over the next week and conditions should be favorable on Sunday. Since 2004, the underdog is 15-7 against the spread in the Super Bowl and the 'dog has covered the number in each of the last five (courtesy betting analyst Evan Abrams). Since 2002, underdogs of 3 points have gone 13-4 against the spread in the big game. With those trends in mind, we are still comfortable laying the points with Seattle in this matchup. One of the biggest reasons why we played the Rams against the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game was Seattle's injuries on the offensive line. When we went to print before the NFC Championship Game, offensive tackles Charles Cross and Josh Jones were both nursing injuries and no one outside of Lumen Field really knew how Sam Darnold was feeling after his oblique injury. Cross and Jones were both cleared to return against the Rams and Darnold looked perfectly fine, going 25-of-36 through the air for 346 passing yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. New England, on the other hand, now has some questions to answer. In addition to Maye's injury, edge rusher Harold Landry did not play against the Broncos and linebacker Robert Spillane suffered an ankle injury and did not return. New England has scored an average of 18.0 points per game in the postseason, and keep in mind, some of those scores were directly set up by turnovers created by the defense. Per NFL researcher Tony Holzman Escareno, that's the fewest points scored by a Super Bowl-bound team since the 1979 Rams. The playing conditions have not been ideal and the Patriots have faced some tough defenses during this playoff run, but things aren't going to get any easier against a Seahawks' defense that was No. 1 in EPA per play allowed, No. 3 in success rate allowed, No. 4 in passing success rate allowed and No. 1 in rushing success rate allowed while playing a much tougher schedule than the one New England faced. The 12th Man gets its revenge for the heartbreaking loss to New England in 2014. #SuperBowl #SuperBowl2026 #SuperBowlLX

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Betting the World Cup? Data from my math model suggest Draws are showing hidden value and can help you make money! 🧵 Game Theory as Tournament Structure changes behavior 48 teams divided into 12 groups of 4. Each team plays 3 matches (round-robin). Advancement: Top 2 teams per group advance automatically (24 teams total). The 8 best third-placed teams across all groups also advance (based on: points → goal difference → goals scored → fair play/conduct score → FIFA ranking). This creates a Round of 32 knockout stage (32 teams advance total out of 48, or ~67%, vs. 50% in the prior 32-team format) @FOXSoccer #FIFAWorldCup #belgium #VamosEspaña #worldcup

Betting World Cup? Free Play that the data from my algorithm shows an edge Uruguay vs Saudi Arabia (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group H opener, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami – June 15, 2026, ~6 PM ET kickoff) is a mismatch on paper but shaped by the expanded 48-team format, both teams’ recent contexts, styles, and specific circumstances New 48-Team Format Context The expanded tournament (12 groups of 4, top 2 advance automatically best 8 third-placed teams) increases the value of draws and cautious play in the group stage. Teams have more incentive to avoid losses and grind points rather than risk everything for a win, especially in mismatches or when facing stronger sides later (e.g., Uruguay faces Spain later). This setup generally leads to more draws across the tournament than in previous 32-team editions. In this specific game, it reinforces a low-risk approach from both sides. Saudi Arabia Context Saudi Arabia enters off a 0-0 draw with Senegal in their final pre-World Cup friendly (June 9, 2026). They have won just once in their last seven games and show limited attacking threat against organized defenses. Their style under new coach Georgios Donis is more front-footed than before (fluid 4-2-3-1 at times), but they still attack cautiously overall and struggle to generate high-quality chances. Key players include Salem Al-Dawsari (captain/creative force), Firas Al-Buraikan, and Saud Abdulhamid. The squad is largely domestic-league based with limited top-level experience. Uruguay Context Uruguay has not played competitively since its March 2026 friendlies (0-0 vs Algeria, 1-1 vs England). They qualified for the World Cup via CONMEBOL with a strong defensive record: just 12 goals conceded in 18 qualifiers against tough opposition. They often play tight, low-scoring games and are defensively robust Without star striker Luis Suárez (not in the squad), they may lack clinical finishing despite attacking talent like Darwin Núñez and Federico Valverde. Injuries add complications: Ronald Araujo (muscle tear in training), José María Giménez (ankle), and Giorgian de Arrascaeta (calf/collarbone issues) are concerns, potentially weakening defense and creativity. Coach Marcelo Bielsa favors an ultra-attacking, high-pressing style that can create overloads but also leaves gaps. #uruguay #saudiarabia #FIFAWorldCup #worldcup

Yamal mode: activated. 🇪🇸 #FIFAWorldCup Find out where to watch ⬇️

The Athletics were embarrassed 23-9 last night... Home Favorites in Game 1 of a Series after losing by 12 runs: 📈 39-19 SU (67%) 🤯 14-6 SU in the last 20 spots History shows teams in this spot tend to answer back after an ugly loss. 🚨 Athletics ML...