好巧不巧,我交易历程里,跌入谷底也至少有3次,
第一次是2017年初,牛市刚开头,BTC再次突破1000u的某一天,一下午工夫亏掉前面几年的收益,亏掉的甚至包含当时引以为傲的“2014年熊市我都能靠做超跌反弹赚十倍,我是天才吧”的部分。
第二次是2018年11月18日左右,本来想赌短线反弹的仓位,变成了继续扛单。
第三次是2020年312,大部分场内仓位在低位被强平。
这3次都是整体性大亏 中间提盈<20%
看到
@0xPickleCati 提到打算分享低谷期办法,
我也来分享下我对
“一个人跌入谷底可以怎么样存活下去,到再站起来”
办法的部分个人体会。
相当于之前讲奖励/痛苦,正负反馈取代意志力的续篇:
(
x.com/coolish/status/1803041… 和下方引用推里黄瓜猫分享的“痛苦课”异曲同工)
不一定适用每个人,但应该能提供启发。
1.
找到和培养自己与“经济、赚钱”关系不大的兴趣追求。
如果我们讨论的“跌入谷底”,是经济、赚钱维度上的,
那么早早培养对经济要求不高的一些兴趣爱好,
就很有机会成为,自己身陷终极风险时的“安全网”支撑。
如果一个人所有的兴趣和生存意志,
都完全依赖于很多钱才行,
那么任何一个经济底谷,
都太可能把这个人的各方面底线击穿,进而万劫不复。
这种兴趣,雅俗都可以,
人文娱乐运动技术生活自然类...等等
任何能让自己长期挖掘,获得乐趣、精神满足的,
小确幸兴趣都可以。
《仙逆》里王林自废全部修为化凡入世重新起号,
不是立马再一心攀登修为,而是刻木雕...
我的情况是,从小一直热爱电脑游戏、电影,
所以我清楚记得在最谷底时,我心里和自己说过:
“哪怕我未来穷困了,
这世界上还会有不断推陈出新的游戏电影电视,
只要我健康活下去,从这些里获得精神富足,
也花不了多少钱”
这种“对最低底线知足”的想法,
对我在谷底时避免极端、心态健康起到了很大帮助。
另一方面,越严重的谷底时,越需要精神疗伤修复,
那么此时,对经济要求不高的兴趣爱好,
就是最佳的,对你不离不弃的修复、分散注意力方式。
1.1
同样这类兴趣,也能在你达到高峰时预防“走火入魔”。
只有在牛市高潮经历过
“账面人生巅峰→跌落谷底”的循环后才会有过这种体会:
高潮时的自己,进入了“入魔”状态,
整个人一心只有账面数字大小、奢侈愿望单,
完全丢失了“我到底需要什么”。
而那些平时培养的,成本低却让自己精神富足的兴趣,
有机会提醒自己:
我的知足,不一定需要那个量级的钱。
缺乏这类兴趣,
就更容易一心只被无止尽越来越大的数字牵着鼻子走。
一个不太恰当但帮助理解的比喻:
同样是铤而走险的贪官,
一个有小兴趣的贪官,贪个多少万可能觉得适可而止了,
(人生有很多美好小确幸,比那些更凶险的收益更值得)
一个没小兴趣的贪官,可能唯一兴趣就是更大的数字了。
如果因为太着急追逐“没那么必须的钱”,
却导致失去“真正必须的钱”,
会是最让人懊悔的事。
另一方面,我认同一句话:
超过生存所需的钱,在经过自己兴趣品味转化前,
它就只是数字。
早早培养这类兴趣,既是没钱时的精神安全网,
也是有钱时的“懂花钱会花钱”的指南。
2.
当谷底已经发生,除非从此退出这个游戏,否则就别“跳过这个劫”。
比如初始资金10,在高潮时变成了100,
期间也没提盈,后跌落至5。
这时要继续的话,通常会想到两个选择:
A 用这5继续,或顶多入金至一开始起点的10
B 因为经历了100的规模,觉得从5继续太慢/不甘心,所以短时间大量入金继续
我最庆幸的是,自己每次在谷底时都选择了A
资金盈亏的越长期结果,实际上就是自己
真实水平表现的越客观真实评分评级。
如果10变100时,提盈了30变70,再变5,
那么姑且可以认为,自己的水平是“能驾驭35”,
因为客观现实是,你带走了30,加手上还有5。
而不是那个过眼云烟的100。
如果资金从10变100又变5,中间也没提盈,
那么不用多想,说明此时就应该认为,
自己真实水平就是“能驾驭5”,和那个100更没有关系。
这也是大家说的一种“均值回归”:
时间越长,数值越反映真实公允值。
10变100又会变5,中间也没提盈,
说明自己的系统,有对应的盈亏同源的大问题大漏洞,
假如此时短时间立马大量入金,甚至借贷大举入金,
就相当于在试图“跳过付出巨大代价换来的这个劫”,
跳过修复自身漏洞、认识自我强健内心的机会,
这其实同时也就评测反映出了自己身处一种状态:
对自身问题缺乏该有的恐惧、敬畏、尊重,
那么下次、下下次,“劫”依旧会再来找上你。
好比是打游戏,别人送你一个高段位的账号,
不是你自己打上去维持住段位的账号,
你用这个账号打,段位当然就会
“均值回归”到你的真实水平位。
只有自己从低段位打到多少,守住多少,
才是驾驭方法水平和资金规模增减,
两者同步互相应证的,
而之所以还在Crypto这个市场玩,
也是因为在这个市场,
不仅是向下的“均值回归”速度很快,
向上的“均值回归”机会和速度,能比想象的多和快。
I got liquidated 3 times until I started making money in trading.
Everyone says find a strategy, build “discipline”, then you’ll make money.
This is the most bullshit and misleading advice of retail trading.
Because discipline can NEVER be “practiced” into existence like a habit. You CAN'T train it like a sport where repetition makes you better.
That fake discipline works fine until real pressure hits, then you completely fall apart.
No strategy will ever work on you if your mind is the weakest part of your setup.
Because here’s the ugly truth👇
> If life hasn’t broken you (multiple times) before, you simply don’t have the psychological resilience to REPLICATE the discipline in traders you admire.
> Their strategy works because it’s PAIRED with a level of INNER RESILIENCE most haven’t earned yet.
> The calm you see in profitable traders wasn't “practiced.”
> It was forged from surviving enough PAIN that their old instincts had NO CHOICE but to DIE.
> Their discipline came from DESTRUCTION, not DETERMINATION.
> With luck and fake discipline you can make money, but you sure as hell can’t keep it for long.
So HOW to get "REAL" discipline?👇
> You cannot “gradually” grow discipline over time.
> It happens very suddenly and violently, usually at your lowest point when your old self finally gets ripped apart.
It’s like arguing with someone. Some people stay ice cold and say exactly what destroys the other person. Others break down crying.
The difference isn’t “self control.”
It’s that the calm one has already survived far worse, so this moment means nothing to them. Chaos doesn’t touch them because they’ve seen bigger storms, not because they “practiced patience.”
So if you're in your lowest point right now, don't waste it👇
> People don’t get many chances in life to experience metamorphosis.
> If you waste all that emotional energy attacking the world or pushing away the people who love you, you’re burning fuel that should be used on yourself.
> Put that energy into your own damn evolution.
> Put it into the quiet moments where you sit down and actually face your shame and fear.
> Start by writing down the 30 things you are most afraid of or most ashamed of.
> It sounds small, but it’s huge, because the version of you who is “doing well” would never have the guts to face that list.
A lot of people think the secret to trading is more strategies, more macro research, more knowledge.
They’re wrong.
It's stepping completely outside of trading to recognize and accept your broken parts. Your demons.
And STOP studying people's success!
Study how they survived their lowest point instead👇
> People love calling someone smart or disciplined, then they copy their routines like it'll magically work.
> It won't. You can't copy success because half of it is luck, timing, and advantages you don't have.
But you can learn from how they fell apart and got back up:
> How they handled losing everything
> How they kept going when most would quit
> How they turned pain into power instead of self-hatred
Those parts are real. Those parts can be copied.
Those parts are earned through fire, not gifted by genetics or privilege.
Success is personal. But the path of dying, rebuilding and coming back stronger is universal.
And it’s the only damn part worth copying.