I’m very selective when making long term investments. It’s rare for me to even initiate a new long term position, typically I only do it when I see a severely discounted asset. Thats what I saw in January with $INTC at $39 per share. 156% in four months. Why? Price is what you pay, value is what you get. Posting a bit of the thesis I shared back then. Not only has the thesis started to come to fruition, but it’s strengthened and become even more relevant as the AI story for Intel has accelerated.

The $RDDT CEO dropped another very telling quote the other day that I’m not seeing anyone mention. “If you talk to any of the early engineers from any of the major LLMS, they’ll all tell you Reddit’s data was essential in their creation. Reddit is the #1 most cited domain for AI across all models. Our content is uniquely valuable to the AI ecosystem because it’s fresh, honest, and largely text-based. And this position still holds because the fresh part really matters: ongoing indexing is more valuable than static datasets. As I said in Q1’26 earnings, I believe our conversations are like oil for this modern internet. We’ve learned a lot over the last two years and those learnings should be reflected in future partnerships, including ways to make them more product-focused versus “data for dollars.” I can’t get into specifics about deals or renewals, but can say that we fully understand the value we bring to the table.” This is going to be remembered as one of the most egregious AI casualty mispricings when we look back a year or two from now.

Anthropic made a generational mistake. Framing AI as a technology that’s going to take everyone’s jobs, create cyber weapons, enable autonomous warfare, etc. instead of curing disease and helping humans do more is one of the most unforced errors I’ve ever seen. How difficult would it have been to frame AI as technology so powerful it’s going to discover cures for disease, allow humans to be more productive, expand what small teams can build, accelerate GDP, and give people leverage they’ve never had before? Such an unforced error.

The $SPCX $TSLA merger is going to melt people’s brains. Robotics, autonomous vehicles, energy storage, LLMs, batteries, rockets, chips, compute, connectivity, satellites, solar, etc. all under one roof. It’s inevitable.

Happy market top day to those that believe a big IPO is going to top the market because talking heads said so.

Cost basis is so important. Most leading stocks that made big moves over the past month pulled back 20–25% without breaking any key levels or major moving averages. This is where cost basis matters when evaluating whether to sell. If you have a major cost basis advantage, a 25% drawdown in a stock you’re still up 120% on doesn’t feel nearly as painful as it does for someone who chased and has no cushion. A strong cost basis gives you the ability to sit through volatility. A stock can go up 100% in six weeks, pull back 25%, and only return to where it was a week or two weeks earlier. Can feel dramatic but in the context of a powerful uptrend it can simply be normal digestion.

Trump’s birthday is this weekend and America’s 250th birthday is in a few weeks. All time highs for the Fourth of July has a nice ring to it.

Yahoo and Amazon went public between 1996 and 1997. The market did pretty well from 1997 through 2000. The reality is that these IPOs are raising billions, not trillions. That amount of liquidity is a drop in the bucket for a market that trades $500B per day. The narrative and sentiment surrounding the SpaceX IPO is creating enough fear that it’s becoming a perceived liquidity event even if the numbers don’t support that level concern. Markets move on perception in the short term but when you zoom out, the idea that a $75B capital raise is going to structurally drain liquidity from a market this large feels overstated.

The good part about a pullback or correction is the opportunities that show up on the other side. As we just saw in early April, leaders show themselves first. The stocks that hold up best through turbulence are often leaders on the other side of pullbacks. This presents opportunities to get advantageous cost basis’ like we saw not long ago with $ARM or $DELL in the $150s. Survive the chop and the other side can be very lucrative.

Confidence is everything in this game. Whether you miss a trade and have confidence you’ll find another or lose a trade and have confidence you’ll win the next, it’s invaluable. Everyone misses and loses, not everyone has the confidence to know another opportunity is near.

The market went vertical at a historic pace for two months straight. A period of volatility is expected. It feels like recency bias and short term memory has conditioned people to think pullbacks aren’t normal? Seems to be more hysteria than usual despite the fact that just a few months ago we had a larger correction, and just one year ago in March-April the Nasdaq dropped 25%. Pullbacks are part of a healthy market, this is why buying pullbacks and stocks that aren’t extended is so important, your cost basis is crucial. Volatility is a feature, not a bug. Index funds exist for a reason, if you can’t handle pullbacks in individual stocks there’s plenty of “safe” investments out there.

If you want to be a swing or position trader, there’s one thing you have to accept: You’re not going to sell the exact top. If your goal is to hold for big pictures moves and trends, accepting the fact that you likely aren’t selling stocks at their high is very important. If you’re going to swing and position trade, you likely embody the saying “I’d rather sell 20% too late vs. 100% too early.” This means if you buy a stock at $75 and it goes to $200 but doesn’t break structure until $160, you’re selling it at $160 vs. $200. You’re almost never going to sell the top, but if you weren’t a swing and position trader you likely wouldn’t have held to $160 in the first place. Hard game to balance, but this is reality.

Most wild -1% day on the Nasdaq in quite some time. What a market environment.

Pullbacks and consolidations aren’t optional in a healthy uptrend. Stocks that lead the market higher over a period of weeks or months need to eventually pause. It’s expected for the stocks that have exploded higher over the last 8 weeks to pullback, reset and build bases.

We’re in a bull market. Yes, I and other market participants are going to remain bullish until the trend changes. There will be signs. Key moving average breaks, leaders breaking down, etc. It doesn’t happen out of nowhere. Standing on the sidelines as the market goes higher pointing out why it shouldn’t be happening and mocking everyone who participates doesn’t make you smart.

Is there anyone who thinks the SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs actually go well and don’t top the market? Doesn’t seem like it, so everyone is prepared for the end of the bull market at the exact same time. I’m sure it’s that easy… right?

Everyone who spent the weekend bragging about selling last Wednesday and Thursday is apparently fully long again now. Nice.

In a world where Trump and Jensen are both telling us to buy stocks at the first sign of a 5% pullback, what used to be a multiweek correction is now condensed into a single session.