Joined April 2023
11 Photos and videos
Jun 12
$abvx this x headline makes no sense to put these 2 companies because they sound sort of similar. x.com/i/trending/20650631814…
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Jun 11
Is $PZZA getting a bounce getting ready for the monthly buyout rumor?
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$PZZA This sa article quotes from a wedbush analyst “Piccolo highlighted that the Pizza Hut sale could be a negative for Papa John's International (PZZA), which will now face a more competitive buyer pool” Somehow this is bearish to have more competitive buying process? The only obvious risk could be if the multiple on Pizza Hut is too low seekingalpha.com/news/459881…
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May 29
$PZZA Is something up with $pzza today it had a pretty sharp drop around 1030
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May 19
$PZZA It looks like the market is not giving much value to the latest story from Reuters on May 14. On May 14 before the story was released the stock closed at 32.72 and today it closed at 33.35. I guess everyone has burned so many times with name but it seems like a good risk/reward at this entry point. reuters.com/sustainability/s…
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May 19
$PZZA — the most substantive bear argument and why Bajwa's involvement may answer it BTIG's Peter Saleh raised a real concern. Papa John's carries 3.5x debt/EBITDA. In a traditional LBO you layer acquisition debt onto the target's balance sheet to amplify returns. At 3.5x there's essentially no room to do that That means Irth and Brookfield would need to write a largely equity check for the entire company. No financial engineering. Returns have to come entirely from fixing the business operationally That's a much harder thesis to underwrite But here's what makes Bajwa's involvement directly relevant to that specific problem When a take-private can't rely on leverage, the operator becomes the entire investment thesis. You need someone who can genuinely turn the business around because there's no debt paydown math to fall back on Bajwa isn't just a friendly franchisee. He controls ~300 locations, has 25 years inside this specific system, sits on the franchise advisory council, and is putting his own capital in. He is the operational answer to the leverage problem And Irth's co-founder Matthew Bradshaw took Bojangles private at a prior firm. He's done a QSR turnaround before. He knows you can't fix a restaurant chain from a boardroom Saleh is right that the financial structure is constrained. He may be underestimating whether the right people are now in place to make the operational case work. seekingalpha.com/news/459427…
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May 18
$PZZA — BTIG's Peter Saleh raised doubts about the deal today. Two points worth addressing On multiple Reuters stories with no deal closing — each story that doesn't lead to a deal raises the bar for the next one internally. The prior coverage history arguably makes the latest story more credible, not less On management conduct and store closures suggesting no deal is imminent — a company in active negotiations is legally required to conduct business as usual until a deal is signed. That's not evidence against a deal, it's just how it works His leverage point is the one worth taking seriously. seekingalpha.com/news/459427…
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May 19
$PZZA Maybe this analyst didn't follow the saga with $BHF which also had multiple rumors and eventually led to a buyout
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May 18
$PZZA thread — why I think there's a good chance this take-private gets announced in the near term 1/ The Reuters credibility argument Reuters has now run five Papa John's deal stories since 2025. Each one that doesn't lead to a deal raises their internal editorial bar for the next. By story five, their editors are not casually approving another one. The prior coverage history makes the latest story more credible, not less 2/ The language shift between stories matters April 15: "Irth has been in talks with Papa John's and conducting due diligence over the last month" May 14: "The company has been reviewing Irth's offer" In M&A terms those aren't the same stage. Due diligence is information gathering. Reviewing an offer is a board decision. 29 days later the process has meaningfully advanced 3/ Naming Bajwa specifically is a higher sourcing bar than naming a fund Apollo is an institution with PR teams and legal counsel. Nadeem Bajwa is a private individual making a personal financial commitment. Reuters naming him specifically with three sources confirming means someone very close to this situation talked. That's a harder claim to make carelessly Not financial advice. Deal has failed before. But the setup heading into this week is the strongest it has been throughout this entire process.
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May 17
$PZZA — worth paying attention to a subtle language shift in Reuters' Papa John's coverage April 15: "Irth has been in talks with Papa John's and conducting due diligence over the last month" May 14: "The company has been reviewing Irth's offer"
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May 14
Does anyone know what’s going on with $PZZA today ?
Papa Johns $PZZA looking like it gets a new fake takeout story every hour these days
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May 10
$PZZA It's interesting that they have had at least 5 buyout rumors from legit sources since early 2025. Feels similar to the saga with $bhf which also has multiple rumors. What's interesting is that both involve Qatari backed investors, I guess Qatari investors are into leaking
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Apr 30
$TARS Back in late 2024 there was a buyout rumor from Betaville (for all it's worth) with one of the potential suitors being Alcon. Assuming there was any truth to that, I wonder if they make another try especially after 2 other acquisitions($LENZ $STAA ) recently fell though
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Apr 30
Since then, $tars has come a far way. They recently forecasted peak sales of 2 billion in the current indication . Even to be more conservative and say peak sales are 1.5 billion, a multiple of 3x that would be over 105/share. That's giving no value to rest of their pipeline
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Apr 24
$QGEN I wonder when qgen is going to schedule their next earnings call. In the past it has always been scheduled by now.I wonder if the delay has to do with strategic review or new ceo announcement which would have very different effects for the stock price.@SharkAlertsBio
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Apr 19
It’s a little bit interesting that $BILL still hasn’t scheduled their May earnings call. Look at the pattern every year since 2020: 2020: scheduled 4/15 for 5/7 2021: 4/15 for 5/06 2022: 4/14 for 5/05 2023: 4/13 for 5/04 2024: 4/11 for 5/02 2025: 4/17 for 5/08
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Apr 19
Based on this pattern it should have been scheduled on 4/16 for 05/07. Probably means nothing… but with the Bloomberg report back on Feb 6 that Hellman & Friedman was in talks for a buyout, plus multiple activist investors maybe something is actually happening....
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Apr 19
It seems like they have been relatively consistent with their earnings in past years.
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