This pattern is significant. It shows the returns per year on any given day throughout Bitcoin’s history.
The peaks align with the cycle tops—if you look back one year from each peak, it covers the explosive bull run we see in every cycle (we’re just entering this frenzied bull year now). The troughs align naturally with cycle bottoms, as they reflect the year of decline following each cycle top.
Between these peaks and troughs, we closely follow the power law. The peaks exhibit a precise mathematical decay (the purple curve represents a precise equation), while the bottoms remain flat, showing a consistent distance from the average trend. These patterns are too regular and precise to be a mere coincidence.
I don’t think ETFs, Saylor, or the Trump administration will change this. As always, we continue to gather data, analyze it, and seek understanding.
If significant changes to this pattern occur, our understanding of past patterns will be invaluable in recognizing and characterizing these shifts as well.
I’m the opposite of dogmatic, and there’s no room for dogma in science.
Science is about identifying patterns and regularities to help us understand and navigate the world. That’s exactly what we’re trying to do with Bitcoin—find sense and direction in what many have assumed is chaos and wild uncertainty.