At the current price of $70,748, strong fundamentals—institutional ETF inflows, global instability, and the post-halving cycle—make a rally to $100,000 more likely. I see the risk of a decline to $49,000 as below 20%: the market often overestimates fear, and history shows recovery after corrections.

Wow. I didn't think I'd see this!

Global Economic Forecast for 2026 and Beyond According to the latest estimates from international organizations, the global economy will experience steady but moderate growth in 2026. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global GDP growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, slightly higher than previous estimates due to stimulus measures in China and the US-China trade truce. The United Nations estimates growth of 2.7% in 2026, below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2%, due to trade tensions and fiscal constraints. The World Economic Forum expects growth of around 3.1% but emphasizes risks associated with debt, asset bubbles, and technology deployment.  Regional differences are noticeable: in the US, growth could reach 2.2–2.4%, supported by AI investments and the Trump administration's policies, although tariffs risk triggering global trade wars.   Europe and Central Asia are expected to grow by 2.4%, China by around 4.5% thanks to stimulus, and India by up to 6.4%, making it one of the fastest-growing economies.    Emerging markets will generally maintain growth rates above 4%, but will face currency volatility and inflation.  In the long term (through the 2030s), key drivers will be AI, digitalization, and the transition to green energy, which could boost productivity but also lead to unemployment and deflation in some sectors. Risks include geopolitical conflicts (Ukraine, the Middle East), water shortages (losses of up to $1.6 trillion), and bursting bubbles in AI and cryptocurrencies. Global inflation will decline to 3.8%, and energy prices will fall by 7%, but oil and gas could rise due to demand. What to bet on: promising investment sectors Based on analysis from Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and other experts, in 2026, the focus will shift from pure stocks to commodities, real assets, and technology. Here are the key areas where growth is expected: • Artificial intelligence and technology: Large AI companies (e.g., leaders like Microsoft and Amazon) will remain in focus, with investments of up to $400 billion in data centers. The shift to "physical" AI (edge ​​devices, energy) will create a productivity boom. However, bubble risks exist – stick to quality stocks with strong brands and competitive advantages.     • Commodities and real assets: Gold could reach $5,000 per ounce, silver $100-120, thanks to inflation and demand. Metals, mining, and commodity currencies will outperform G7 stocks. Focus on gold, copper, and mining companies, especially in the context of global reflation.    • Energy and green technologies: Electrification, nuclear energy, and renewable energy will receive support from governments. Oil and gas may surprise with growth, but the long-term trend is toward "green" markets, which will grow to $640 billion by 2030. Invest in companies related to energy security and supply chains.    • Healthcare and Biotech: The sector is growing thanks to drug innovations (e.g., GLP-1 for weight loss) and demographic shifts. Companies like Boston Scientific and biotech firms will see long-term growth.   • Defense and Consumer Staples: In times of uncertainty, high-quality stocks with recurring revenue (Visa, S&P Global) are a good choice. Defense and consumer staples (food, essentials) are recession-resistant.    Overall, the strategy is a balance: stay ahead in AI, diversify into commodities and energy, taking into account the risks of tariffs and debt. This is not financial advice.