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NBA ๐ Lock #1 (June 13th)
Stephon Castle o 4.5 Rebounds
(-130 Fanatics)
80 PERCENT HIT RATE ๐โผ๏ธ
โค๏ธ IF YOUโRE TAILING
Iโm running Castle back, heโs been a wagon for us all season and has been effective on the glass in this series averaging nearly 6 RPG. He has cleared this line in eight of his last ten postseason games while averaging 5 rebounds per game on 11 rebound chances.
Castle carried that production throughout the season into this series against the Knicks where heโs cleared this line in 3/4 games with 5 and 8 rebounds on 10 and 11 rebound chances.
Heโs active on the defensive glass, and that should continue throughout the series. When Castle is matched up with players like Josh Hart, who is willing to shoot but not considered an elite perimeter scorer, it gives him more freedom to crash the boards and help finish possessions. Castle has also been underrated as an offensive rebounder with his ability to go for put backs or just use his athleticism to out hustle players for loose balls.
The pace of this matchup is another positive. Both San Antonio and New York played at some of the fastest tempos during the playoffs, creating more shot attempts and, consequently, more rebound opportunities. With Castle consistently seeing double-digit rebound chances and already proving successful in this matchup, he has a strong path to clearing 4.5 rebounds once again.ย
๐ @HOFApp
NBA ๐ Lock #2 (June 13th)
Jalen Brunson o 26.5 Points
(-140 FD)
โค๏ธ IF YOUโRE TAILING
Jalen Brunson has definitely struggled to score efficiently for the most part in this series. The Spurs deserve credit for making life difficult on him, but the volume has been elite and sometimes volume can outweigh efficiency. Brunson is averaging 27 field goal attempts per game in this series and heโs coming off his best game of the series and I expect him to build off that.
One thing that stood out in Games 3/4 was the Spurs not sending nearly as much help on Brunson's drives. That allowed him more opportunities to get to the rim and operate in his mid-range game rather than immediately looking to kick the ball out. If San Antonio continues to defend him this way, the scoring chances should remain plentiful.
I also like the way the Spurs are defending ball screens. They continue to sit in a drop coverage at the top of the key, which opens up opportunities for Brunson's pull-up three. He knocked down 3 of 5 from deep in Game 3 and 3 of 7 in Game 4, and even in the previous games he attempted 8 and 9 threes. The volume from beyond the arc has been extremely encouraging.
Brunson has always been a streaky three-point shooter, and when he sees a couple go down early he can heat up in a hurry. With the amount of shots he's taking and the freedom he's getting to hunt his own offense, he doesn't need to be hyper-efficient to clear this number. If a few of those pull-up threes fall, he has a great chance to get back over this line.
๐ @HOFApp
NBA ๐ Lock #2 (June 13th)
Jalen Brunson o 26.5 Points
(-140 FD)
โค๏ธ IF YOUโRE TAILING
Jalen Brunson has definitely struggled to score efficiently for the most part in this series. The Spurs deserve credit for making life difficult on him, but the volume has been elite and sometimes volume can outweigh efficiency. Brunson is averaging 27 field goal attempts per game in this series and heโs coming off his best game of the series and I expect him to build off that.
One thing that stood out in Games 3/4 was the Spurs not sending nearly as much help on Brunson's drives. That allowed him more opportunities to get to the rim and operate in his mid-range game rather than immediately looking to kick the ball out. If San Antonio continues to defend him this way, the scoring chances should remain plentiful.
I also like the way the Spurs are defending ball screens. They continue to sit in a drop coverage at the top of the key, which opens up opportunities for Brunson's pull-up three. He knocked down 3 of 5 from deep in Game 3 and 3 of 7 in Game 4, and even in the previous games he attempted 8 and 9 threes. The volume from beyond the arc has been extremely encouraging.
Brunson has always been a streaky three-point shooter, and when he sees a couple go down early he can heat up in a hurry. With the amount of shots he's taking and the freedom he's getting to hunt his own offense, he doesn't need to be hyper-efficient to clear this number. If a few of those pull-up threes fall, he has a great chance to get back over this line.
๐ @HOFApp
NBA ๐ Lock #1 (June 13th)
Stephon Castle o 4.5 Rebounds
(-130 Fanatics)
80 PERCENT HIT RATE ๐โผ๏ธ
โค๏ธ IF YOUโRE TAILING
Iโm running Castle back, heโs been a wagon for us all season and has been effective on the glass in this series averaging nearly 6 RPG. He has cleared this line in eight of his last ten postseason games while averaging 5 rebounds per game on 11 rebound chances.
Castle carried that production throughout the season into this series against the Knicks where heโs cleared this line in 3/4 games with 5 and 8 rebounds on 10 and 11 rebound chances.
Heโs active on the defensive glass, and that should continue throughout the series. When Castle is matched up with players like Josh Hart, who is willing to shoot but not considered an elite perimeter scorer, it gives him more freedom to crash the boards and help finish possessions. Castle has also been underrated as an offensive rebounder with his ability to go for put backs or just use his athleticism to out hustle players for loose balls.
The pace of this matchup is another positive. Both San Antonio and New York played at some of the fastest tempos during the playoffs, creating more shot attempts and, consequently, more rebound opportunities. With Castle consistently seeing double-digit rebound chances and already proving successful in this matchup, he has a strong path to clearing 4.5 rebounds once again.ย
๐ @HOFApp
WNBA๐ Lock #1 (June 12th)
Sonia Citron o 14.5 Points
(-145 Fanatics)
โค๏ธ THIS POST FOR ANOTHER PLAY
- Sheโs cleared this line in 67% of her games this season and in 60% of both her last 5 and last 10 games. She also put up 26 points last time they faced the Tempo.
- Citron continues to be one of Washingtonโs most reliable scorers, averaging heavy minutes at 33 per game and consistently finding ways to contribute offensively.
- What makes Citron so appealing is her versatility. She can score at all three levels, whether itโs attacking the rim, knocking down mid-range jumpers, or hitting shots from beyond the arc.
- This matchup sets up well against a Toronto team that is still working through the growing pains of an expansion season. Defensive rotations and communication have been inconsistent at times, creating opportunities for skilled scorers to find quality looks. Washington will also likely be without Kiki Iriafen (GTD), which should open up additional offensive opportunities and a larger scoring role.
๐@HOFApp