Trading w/o the BS | Join the Outliers on YouTube, Substack, Discord - link in bio | 🇺🇸 Marine Vet | ft: Business Insider, Barchart, IG | MBA

Joined July 2016
2,022 Photos and videos
Erik - Outlier Trading retweeted
This week's Options Trench is a topic that used to trip up professional traders (meaning there was edge in understanding it). I would think any pro today in a seat gets this but you be the judge
IV tells a lot of lies, yet most traders take it for granted. @KrisAbdelmessih and I explore WHY this is the case and HOW you can adjust your mental model to render more accurate implied volatility. youtu.be/JzxGOoYsAv0
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IV tells a lot of lies, yet most traders take it for granted. @KrisAbdelmessih and I explore WHY this is the case and HOW you can adjust your mental model to render more accurate implied volatility. youtu.be/JzxGOoYsAv0
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o/toc is healthy. refining the daily incremental pull to keep the db fully updated. i have a heavier full incremental designed to audit the entire db. all done with AI - zero coding.
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we are fine tuning the o/toc and Huginn
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If you're wondering how Elon Musk will become the world's first trillionaire today. This interview is pre-iPhone.
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people who solve the most challenging problems SHOULD be rewarded. @elonmusk has done this repeatedly. well deserved and incredibly cool to witness.
> you’ll never start a rocket company > you’ll never build your own engines > you’ll never be able to use off-the-shelf parts > you’ll never survive three launch failures > you’ll never reach orbit > you’ll never win NASA’s trust > you’ll never launch cargo to the ISS > you’ll never compete with Boeing > you’ll never compete with Lockheed > you’ll never make rockets reusable > you’ll never land a rocket vertically > you’ll never land one on a drone ship > you’ll never reuse a booster > you’ll never fly the same booster 10 times > you’ll never fly the same booster 20 times > you’ll never fly the same booster 30 times > you’ll never recover and reuse the fairing > you’ll never lower launch costs > you’ll never launch every month > you’ll never launch every week > you’ll never launch multiple times a week > you’ll never carry astronauts > you’ll never replace Roscosmos > you’ll never fly civilians to orbit > you’ll never manufacture satellites at scale > you’ll never build the biggest constellation ever > you’ll never make satellite internet work > you’ll never make satellite internet fast > you’ll never make satellite internet affordable > you’ll never serve rural customers > you’ll never serve aircraft and ships > you’ll never build a methane rocket engine > you’ll never make full-flow staged combustion work > you’ll never build the most powerful rocket ever > you’ll never build a rocket bigger than Saturn V > you’ll never build it out of stainless steel > you’ll never launch Starship > you’ll never separate Super Heavy and Starship > you’ll never relight Raptor in space > you’ll never bring Super Heavy back > you’ll never catch a booster with Mechazilla tower arms > you’ll never launch 85% of mass to orbit worldwide > you’ll never change the economics of space > you’ll never force the entire industry to copy you > you’ll never win > you’ll never IPO   Congratulations to @elonmusk and the SpaceX team. You did what countless people said was impossible, and you did it time and time again.   Today is your day. You deserve this. May it be a glorious one.
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by ALL accounts $SPCX WAY more mellow than expected. opened, big 5min range and has consolidated since.
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Erik - Outlier Trading retweeted
Replying to @iam_smx
*trillioniare
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O/Toc is fully operational. I'm still building some key functionality: Huginn (market analysis) and Muninn (complete research repository). Have a trading idea you want tested? Drop it down below. I’ll pick a few and run a thorough analysis and share as a post. The entire purpose for this is to try and encourage traders to lean more heavily into the research side of trading. It used to be way more expensive and harder to conduct but with AI that’s all changed. I spent thousands of hours self teaching programming, database management, etc. I’ve spent over $100K on options data. Less than 25 days ago I was doing research in my own db and randomly wanted to see what AI could do. Now, I’ve completely moved my trading backend to the new tool that I built with AI. Same goal as above, to encourage others to make their own and begin researching. You don’t need to pay for half ass software that can’t do exactly what you want. With AI and a weekend you could reasonably stand up your own. So - if you have a trading idea - can be a strategy, market effect, general curiosity that you’re curious about researching drop it below. I’ll pick a couple and do it for you. I have everything needed. Intraday options data for the entire universe back to 2014. Daily back to 2007. Equity, index, etc back to 1980. Crypto. Prediction markets. News. FOMC. PPI. Earnings. Fundamentals. Technicals. Anything.
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day 22/23. 10,500,000,000 rows of queryable data. 89,500 lines of source code. in less than 25 days using ai, I have built a complete trading research database. curious how IPOs tend to perform? how congress trades? how to find opportunities in prediciton markets. how to think about CSPs vs long stock. why covered calls systematically underperform buy and hold, etc. it's all within your reach now - everyone has access. - 800M option strike records, with every Greek and the full IV surface on each - ~1 billion rows across 46 tables - 18 years of options history, 2007 to today - 46 years of index, commodity, and equity data - 16 data sources wired into one pipeline, from ORATS to the SEC to the Federal Reserve - Self-hosted. Single machine. Zero cloud bill. all, with zero human coding this entire thing started as a random question as i was working in my old database. fast forward, i have completely transitioned to the O/TOC. my goal is to continue my trading operation using a research setup that everyone has access to - to show it's possible. while the project no code daily updates will be going away - a new project will take it's place. sharing actual research, tools, and work from the o/toc to give you ideas. if you're building your own version leveraging the quick start guide (available free, no email, no nothing, just download and go: outliertrading.io/project-no…) and have questions, just let me know.
project no code day 20 and 21 i guess, it's 1234am. im further refining the ISR node and Huginn - a comprehensive tool to analyze and scan markets. im refining convention for daily incremental updates. and completing a comprehensive backup after installing larger internal NVME 3x 8tb vs 3x4tb. i have more than enough HDD storage at this point. really really excited to see how this is coming together and again, every single thing with zero human code. this tool is completely reproducible by anyone - which is what makes it so cool. it's also why i build the quick start guide for those who want to do so. there is no zero excuse for not having well research strategies in production for retail traders besides pure laziness.
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With the #SpaceX IPO coming up, I wanted to use the O/TOC to take a quick look at how IPOs tend to perform over the last decade or so. Anything stick out to you? This was done with zero human programming, all AI based code. That said, AI needs guidance and audits.
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Erik - Outlier Trading retweeted
Ken Griffin's ultimate rule for survival is brutally simple when asked how Citadel survived a near-death experience in 2008 to become a $60 billion empire - he dropped pure reality: "we lost 50% of our capital and our flagship fund was down $8 billion - that's when you realize your textbook risk models mean absolutely nothing" "when you are bleeding $500 million a week you don't survive by having conviction - you survive by aggressively protecting cash" "today we execute 20% of all US volume - we don't hold losers praying for a bounce, if the math breaks, we liquidate immediately" Griffin didn't build Citadel by predicting the future. He built it by completely removing human emotion and ego from the equation when the market collapses. bookmark and watch him break down the reality of risk
in a buried interview, Jamie Dimon dropped a brutal truth about wall street that almost everyone completely missed he operates on one ruthless rule: "people confuse a bull market with their own genius. real risk management isn't predicting the crash,it's having the cash to buy out the guys who didn't prepare" while modern traders obsess over predicting the exact market bottom, he built his massive edge by simply hoarding liquidity and letting his rivals blow themselves up on leverage. then he buys their assets for pennies this interview is a rare reality check on true risk management bookmark & watch a billionaire break down his system
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project no code day 20 and 21 i guess, it's 1234am. im further refining the ISR node and Huginn - a comprehensive tool to analyze and scan markets. im refining convention for daily incremental updates. and completing a comprehensive backup after installing larger internal NVME 3x 8tb vs 3x4tb. i have more than enough HDD storage at this point. really really excited to see how this is coming together and again, every single thing with zero human code. this tool is completely reproducible by anyone - which is what makes it so cool. it's also why i build the quick start guide for those who want to do so. there is no zero excuse for not having well research strategies in production for retail traders besides pure laziness.
#SpaceX IPO for those wondering some basic details around IPOs - the o/toc has your back. project no code day 19 note the performance gap between offer price vs ipo open price
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hey everyone! doing a livestream today at 1800PT to poke around the O/TOC - answer questions on Project No Code (your roadmap to build your OWN O/TOC). open agenda - we can hit anything you want! youtube.com/live/CZEXCE_HR60…
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Flashing cash used to be the flex. Things have changed.
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next on The Options Trench w/ @KrisAbdelmessih we dive into the underpinning factor for every single trade we ALL take - volatility. we discuss volatility in 5 levels of difficulty, check it out here: youtu.be/8Sk1oMYRq-Q
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#SpaceX IPO for those wondering some basic details around IPOs - the o/toc has your back. project no code day 19 note the performance gap between offer price vs ipo open price
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