This is the Israeli perspective of what Indian interests are in
#WestAsia. But these points can't be farther from the Indian perspective. Indian interests and Israeli interests in the region, though both countries enjoy very good bilat ties, are starkly different. Let's have a relook at each point.
1. Pakistan is not becoming a leader of the Global South at India's expense just because Pakistan brokered a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran after a failed U.S.-Israel war. India is well aware of Pakistan's capabilities and limitations. Pakistan had been the blue-eyed boy of the U.S. throughout the Cold War. And India dealt with it. It's true that Pakistan today is rebuilding its ties with the US and expanding its diplomatic footprint in West Asia. That space for Pakistan was opened not by the deal trump is reaching with Iran but by the war Israel and the U.S. launched in India's neighbourhood. And that space will be paid close attention in New Delhi.
2. If the deal allows Iran to dominate the Strait of Hormuz, that means the war Israel and the US launched had been a total failure. India has historically enjoyed good bilat ties with Iran. Iran's ballistic missiles or a growing Iranian economy do not pose any threat to India. India has also invested millions in Iran. Iran offers a route to India to Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan; Iran is also a critical link in the North-South Transport Corridor which gives India an alternative route to connect with Europe bypassing the Suez Canal. India looks at IMEC as an important connectivity project, as well. But the missing piece in IMEC is the absence of an Israel-Saudi normalisation. If Israel is ready to settle the Palestine question politically and normalise ties with the Arab world, it would open great opportunities for India's regional engagement.
3. Millions of Indians have been living in the Persian Gulf countries for decades. The first wave of migration started in the 1960s, in the early stage of the oil boom, well before the revolution in Iran. They had never been threatened by Iranian missiles before this war. For the safety of millions of Indians in the Gulf and for remittances to continue to flow to India, what India wants is stability and economic progress in the region. In other words, Israel bringing its wars to the Persian Gulf is a direct threat to India's economic and energy security and the safety of millions of Indians living in the region. India sees itself as one of the pillars of the emerging order; so it's imperative for India to continue to grow economically, and tackle the disturbances that challenge this growth trajectory.
4. India clearly doesn't want another nuclear power in its neighbourhood. But it wants the nuclear question to be resolved diplomatically, not through unwise, less thought-out wars that hurt everyone. Israel wants regime change in Tehran, India doesn't. From an Indian perspective, the JCPOA addressed the nuclear question and Iranian facilities were open for international inspection. It was trump 1.0 that sabotaged the JCPOA, and it was Israel that recklessly, non-strategically took the war directly to Iran, exactly a year ago, after which Iran cut off the IAEA access to its nuclear programme.
So yes, India wants stability in West Asia. And for long-term stability, the Palestine question should be politically addressed; unending wars in the region should be stopped; Iran's nuclear programme should be addressed diplomatically and sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries in the region should be respected.
India is cautiously welcoming the Iran deal, but let’s be clear: this is a disaster for India.
1️⃣ This deal has elevated India’s arch-nemesis Pakistan to the level of global peacemaker. It undermines India’s efforts to call out Pakistan’s destabilizing behavior and support for terrorism by making Islamabad a byword for peacemaking. It also transforms Pakistan into a powerbroker and leader of the Global South at India’s expense.
2️⃣ The capitulation allows Iran to dominate India’s western trading gateway. Before the Iranian Axis launched the October 7 War, India was dreaming of building the IMEC trade corridor through the Gulf and Israel to Europe. It was meant to slash transit costs and turbocharge Indian manufacturing. An emboldened Iran with ballistic missiles and billions in sanctions relief imperils that vision. Iran receives a veto over any infrastructure project in a maritime zone it seeks to dominate. Critically, the deal emboldens Iran’s proxy armies by establishing the precedent that they are inviolable, and this will threaten shipping in the Indian Ocean and Red Sea.
3️⃣ This deal keeps nearly 10 million Indians in the shadow of Iran’s ballistic missiles and killer drones The Iranian attack on Kuwait’s airport killed an Indian and the attack on Fujeirah injured three. India needs the Iranian threat neutralized to safeguard its migrant workers and the essential remittances they send home.
4️⃣ The failure to resolve the nuclear issue, while surrendering US leverage, means India will continue to be threatened by an Iranian regime in league with Pakistan pursuing nuclear weapons. It will continue to attack Indian interests with impunity and sow chaos in West Asia, sabotaging the stability that India needs for long-term economic projects. A nuclear-threshold Iran leaves India permanently exposed.
India’s approach of neutrality is unsustainable and jeopardizes its long-term interests. This disastrous deal must push it to reevaluate its geopolitical posture in a world in which Iran is dangerous and Pakistan is ascendant. Closer military and economic ties with Israel, similarly threatened by this news, is inevitable.