@_leon____ profile picture
Leon @_leon____
Joined May 2023
  • Tweets 121
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  • Followers 14
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#thg #thgplc If this plays out, fair play to MM 🙌 Let’s see , could be an explosive few months ahead DYOR public domain info research suggests a sequence of events to unlock value ⏰
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#thg #thgplc 👌RNS Credit strength De risked Not distressed Lenders pricing as high quality credit Sets up the options l2 OM JV MBO Next phase Capital Markets unlock Not a forced seller = pay fair value Looks like Rothschild strategic sequence The Double Unlock ? ⏰
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#thg Feels like a few on the wrong side of the trade classic pre event pressure to pin price Short signalling Limited exit liquidity Asymmetric potential upside Res 21 capital return enabler Res 27 legal requisite Beauty transaction ready IF Rothchild 👈 Dots imo
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#thg #thgplc A double unlock approach could be a possibility , plus common method to unlock value Sale Asset/Division Zero debt Cash 4 buybacks special divi Freefloat collapses Shorts buyback Share count reduces VAT upflift EPS Re rates then private/ sell 2x Rev ?
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IF a buyer 4 beauty double unlock Fair value 1.3bn 0 debt 1bn cash £300M buybacks reduce shares c 1BN Freefloat collapse , shorts cover VAT rebate EPS uplift #THG rerates MM% ⬆️ >40% not obliged as per rules Option Sell 2x Rev premium Cheaper MBO Just a thought ?
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Thought of the day #thg #thgplc THG nutrition valuation if Beauty was say sold £1.1bn mid x1.4 £1.6bn Zero debt Cash 1Bn Buybacks freefloat Vat rebate margin Rev £700M expanding 2 x Rev min (3xHuel) MM % increases 4 MBO ? Forget £1.50 🆙 Signals l2 AGM RChilds Growth ⏰
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#Thg #thgplc Transaction ready l2 Beauty Open charge Ring fenced Clean balance sheet MM public signal Rothchilds 👈 AGM voting Return to growth Deep buyer universe MM in control ‘IF’ will be a fair price = explosive to THG remainco share price £1Bn Cash, No debt etc ⏰
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#thg #thgplc Administration error not picked up on Claremont sale ~ interesting Why ~ Due diligence on divisional level ? Rothchilds sponsor/advisor Beauty £1.1bn Rev x 1.2 to 1.6 Ebitda x 12-18 £1.4Bn ~ £1.7bn Maybe not MBO ~ yet ~ Beauty maybe ⏰
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#THG #thgplc Defensive suppression 33.6p 1st cover zone High % short positions Borrow costs increase > 33.6 Lenders recall Tier 2, Quant, Delta, CFD hedges When it breaks = move quick Accumulation VAT Q2 MBO/PE leaks SoTP 1.50 anything less dressed as generous ⏰
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#thg See why short signalling >0.5% Deliberate 👆 herd signal spook retail = slow the tape Structural Catalysts = unhedgabke risk AGM, THG clean , buybacks , VAT, Divi, leak MBO/PE, Rchilds involvement High % hidden short , Thin free float etc SoTP 1.50 min ⏰
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Rothchilds : The No1 advisor take privates MBO/PE esp founder aligned dealmaking RNS = M&A hygiene AGM resol Clean #THG Approval VAT margin Buybacks MBO 👆 cheaper 2.4 2.7 Shorts unable to fight structural catalysts £1.50 anything less dressed as generous AGM notes 👌
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#thg #thgplc Companies do not suddenly wake up say let’s fix the tech companies act issue Ingen ; no issues last 16mths Due diligence question clean reserves Coincidence ? Not imo Data room sweep Not routine this is prep , seems like clean this up before X can proceed
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#thg #thgplc RNS Game on simplifies balance sheet Removes legal noise Prep for optionality Avoids delays = Transaction ready ⬆️ Exactly kind of housekeeping before MBO or PE Approach SoTP £1.50 anything less dressed as generously
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#thg #thgplc Process : Capital reduction approved Legally clean Advisors VAT raises valuation floor Trigger buyback = free float = MBO cheaper Shorts cover Announce ….. Dividends ? Not imo £1.50 anything less is dressed as generous RNS Unlocking value
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#thg #thgplc Ultra thin open Dead tape Break out seems imminent Catalysts SoTP £1.50 anything less is dressed as generous
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#THG #THGPLC 32p , EPS 4p LSE x8 earnings v US x25-35 VAT margin rebuild EPS 6p Lower debt 1p Expansion MP Beauty EPS 8p Max levers 10-12p US DTC consumer x25-35 PE or MBO to unlock that’s the play Looks attractive imo do the Math ⏰
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#THG #thgplc Sum of parts min £1.50 anything less is dressed as generous Offer 170p/Sector Beauty, Nutrition/VAT/Assets/future upside/Huel/private market valuations SP suppression Very attractive at these levels but reputations & integrity at stake on any capital event
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#thg #thgplc Data suggests asymmetric upside potential move from here Catalyst potential Asset sale VAT Bid *MBO rollover High short position Thin liquidity JV Timeframe closing ⏰
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MM 25% blocks hostile 1 Unless fair value 2 MBO ii rollover unlock multiple value via private markets Beauty Nutrition (Huel) VAT 78M margin CAGR sectors 2.5Bn £1.50 anything less is dressed as generous Showing disclosure is a strategy for liquidity exit ⏰ #thg
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#thg #thgplc A well known strategy is to show your hand , disclose just above the 0.5% short threshold to enable potentially an easier exit , especially on thin liquidity stocks with high undisclosed short positions. ‘Short signalling’ ⏰
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