Gaussova křivka je neúprosná a v kombinaci s demografickým trendem a všeobecným volebním právem činí populismus nejvýhodnější volební strategií. Pokud se to těm, kteří tu šarádu svou produktivitou platí, nelíbí, musí vymyslet funkční řešení. Skupinové nebo individuální.

A few random notes from claude coding quite a bit last few weeks. Coding workflow. Given the latest lift in LLM coding capability, like many others I rapidly went from about 80% manual autocomplete coding and 20% agents in November to 80% agent coding and 20% edits touchups in December. i.e. I really am mostly programming in English now, a bit sheepishly telling the LLM what code to write... in words. It hurts the ego a bit but the power to operate over software in large "code actions" is just too net useful, especially once you adapt to it, configure it, learn to use it, and wrap your head around what it can and cannot do. This is easily the biggest change to my basic coding workflow in ~2 decades of programming and it happened over the course of a few weeks. I'd expect something similar to be happening to well into double digit percent of engineers out there, while the awareness of it in the general population feels well into low single digit percent. IDEs/agent swarms/fallability. Both the "no need for IDE anymore" hype and the "agent swarm" hype is imo too much for right now. The models definitely still make mistakes and if you have any code you actually care about I would watch them like a hawk, in a nice large IDE on the side. The mistakes have changed a lot - they are not simple syntax errors anymore, they are subtle conceptual errors that a slightly sloppy, hasty junior dev might do. The most common category is that the models make wrong assumptions on your behalf and just run along with them without checking. They also don't manage their confusion, they don't seek clarifications, they don't surface inconsistencies, they don't present tradeoffs, they don't push back when they should, and they are still a little too sycophantic. Things get better in plan mode, but there is some need for a lightweight inline plan mode. They also really like to overcomplicate code and APIs, they bloat abstractions, they don't clean up dead code after themselves, etc. They will implement an inefficient, bloated, brittle construction over 1000 lines of code and it's up to you to be like "umm couldn't you just do this instead?" and they will be like "of course!" and immediately cut it down to 100 lines. They still sometimes change/remove comments and code they don't like or don't sufficiently understand as side effects, even if it is orthogonal to the task at hand. All of this happens despite a few simple attempts to fix it via instructions in CLAUDE . md. Despite all these issues, it is still a net huge improvement and it's very difficult to imagine going back to manual coding. TLDR everyone has their developing flow, my current is a small few CC sessions on the left in ghostty windows/tabs and an IDE on the right for viewing the code manual edits. Tenacity. It's so interesting to watch an agent relentlessly work at something. They never get tired, they never get demoralized, they just keep going and trying things where a person would have given up long ago to fight another day. It's a "feel the AGI" moment to watch it struggle with something for a long time just to come out victorious 30 minutes later. You realize that stamina is a core bottleneck to work and that with LLMs in hand it has been dramatically increased. Speedups. It's not clear how to measure the "speedup" of LLM assistance. Certainly I feel net way faster at what I was going to do, but the main effect is that I do a lot more than I was going to do because 1) I can code up all kinds of things that just wouldn't have been worth coding before and 2) I can approach code that I couldn't work on before because of knowledge/skill issue. So certainly it's speedup, but it's possibly a lot more an expansion. Leverage. LLMs are exceptionally good at looping until they meet specific goals and this is where most of the "feel the AGI" magic is to be found. Don't tell it what to do, give it success criteria and watch it go. Get it to write tests first and then pass them. Put it in the loop with a browser MCP. Write the naive algorithm that is very likely correct first, then ask it to optimize it while preserving correctness. Change your approach from imperative to declarative to get the agents looping longer and gain leverage. Fun. I didn't anticipate that with agents programming feels *more* fun because a lot of the fill in the blanks drudgery is removed and what remains is the creative part. I also feel less blocked/stuck (which is not fun) and I experience a lot more courage because there's almost always a way to work hand in hand with it to make some positive progress. I have seen the opposite sentiment from other people too; LLM coding will split up engineers based on those who primarily liked coding and those who primarily liked building. Atrophy. I've already noticed that I am slowly starting to atrophy my ability to write code manually. Generation (writing code) and discrimination (reading code) are different capabilities in the brain. Largely due to all the little mostly syntactic details involved in programming, you can review code just fine even if you struggle to write it. Slopacolypse. I am bracing for 2026 as the year of the slopacolypse across all of github, substack, arxiv, X/instagram, and generally all digital media. We're also going to see a lot more AI hype productivity theater (is that even possible?), on the side of actual, real improvements. Questions. A few of the questions on my mind: - What happens to the "10X engineer" - the ratio of productivity between the mean and the max engineer? It's quite possible that this grows *a lot*. - Armed with LLMs, do generalists increasingly outperform specialists? LLMs are a lot better at fill in the blanks (the micro) than grand strategy (the macro). - What does LLM coding feel like in the future? Is it like playing StarCraft? Playing Factorio? Playing music? - How much of society is bottlenecked by digital knowledge work? TLDR Where does this leave us? LLM agent capabilities (Claude & Codex especially) have crossed some kind of threshold of coherence around December 2025 and caused a phase shift in software engineering and closely related. The intelligence part suddenly feels quite a bit ahead of all the rest of it - integrations (tools, knowledge), the necessity for new organizational workflows, processes, diffusion more generally. 2026 is going to be a high energy year as the industry metabolizes the new capability.

Italian news has begun to call ICE "Trump's squadristi". Squadristi, as every Italian knows, were members of Mussolini's "squadre d'azione", which raped, tortured, mutilated, murdered opponents of fascism... but in Italy the government never paid the squadristi a salary.

I wonder how many countries have plans or are working on them to remove Trump and Vance from the equations. I bet Russia does not.

Truman: ​"I don't care for it. It’s a raw deal. I got word of it this morning. You know who told me? Marshal Stalin told me. He told me they shelled the Chancellery... forced that poor fella in the bunker to take his own life. I tell you, I was sore as hell about it."

Australian police just called me at 8 PM at night to demand I delete one of my X posts about the Bondi terrorist massacre. I thought they were calling me to offer me protection because an ISIS preacher in Sydney publicly threatened me online today. But Queensland police instead called me to demand I delete a post I made criticising someone who said murdering 15 Jews was not anti-Semitic. I asked them what law I broke. They told me I hadn’t broken the law but they still wanted me to delete the post. I politely informed them that this wouldn’t be happening. This is insane. This is Australia now. Police phone calls at night to try intimidate normal Australians into deleting Tweets. With no reference to the law at all. Meanwhile jihadists are still allowed to run wild with zero penalties. Two tier legal system.

🚨🚨Important update: Cairo has outright rejected Starmer’s reported assertion that he was unaware of Alaa’s record of incitement to violence, maintaining that British officials were explicitly briefed on the matter. Late tonight, I received a message from a well-connected Egyptian source indicating that the Egyptian government may be considering revoking Alaa’s Egyptian citizenship. The apparent aim would be to shut down any discussion in the UK about revoking his British citizenship. Such a move would place the British government in a bind, as UK law prevents the removal of citizenship if it would render an individual stateless. If pursued, this would be a calculated attempt to embarrass Starmer and force Britain to retain responsibility for Alaa, as well as teach Britain not to pressure Cairo over human rights-related cases in the future. The message is clear. You got involved. You didn't need to. It's your mess now.

Power hungry cognitively declining ignorant controls one of the two biggest nuclear arsenals. The other one is controlled by a murderous thief. Great job humanity. We need to find a permanent solution to this. This is our playing field and past filters don't work anymore:

I’m not convinced that importing these views to Britain should be a “top priority” of any government.

"Psilocybe Pickers tell the story of how a culture that started life in the shadows slowly blossomed in every corner of Britain’s landscape, transforming into a staple part of recreational, regional scenes." psychedelicstoday.com/2025/1…

Whenever I start making something, I always feel uncertain-- right up until the moment that I encounter real difficulty. It's only once I discover that there is something difficult involved that I start to feel comfortable. Before that moment, it's hard to know that the thing I'm making is worth making. After all, why doesn't it already exist? If anyone can do it, shouldn't someone else have done it already? Is this just a bad idea that has already quietly failed many times before? But when I encounter something really difficult, that's when I know why it doesn't already exist, and overcoming that difficulty with my obsessiveness and anything else I can bring to bear becomes exciting. It feels like an opportunity; a reason that something is worth doing. When I say that I consider these to be "the last days of software development," it's because -- for a lot of my life -- knowing how computers work has been significant and valuable, because for most of my life, it has been possible to sit down at a computer, start making something, and encounter that difficulty everywhere. I don't think eliminating software development as it has been is a negative development in the slightest. I think making software easy/free to build will have all kinds of positive effects for all of us. And sure, maybe there will continue to be humans in the loop etc etc.. but I do think that this is the end of something that I invested a lot of time thinking about, in large part so I could sit down at a computer and start typing into an editor with some trepidation, until the moment that I encounter something which makes me stop and think "oh." And then smile.

The US declassified exchanges between US President Bush and Putin from 2008 in which Putin already called Ukraine an „artificial“ state, clearly denying its right for existence. This is years before the war started and should remind us once again that Putin always wanted to take Ukraine. It also says that this war will never end with Putin in the Kremlin. It will go on until he is removed, permanently, and Russia fully dislodged. Everything else is just noise.

Ruský étos vítěze nad fašismem je v troskách. 194 miliónový SSSR dokázal porazit 80 miliónové Německo za 4 roky, protože to bojovalo na dvou frontách, nemělo zdroje a SSSR měl ekonomickou podporu Západu. Rusko za stejnou dobu stojí na 34 miliónové Ukrajině. Vytrvejme!

Součástí vánočního a novoročního přání pro lepší život a více dobra ve světě je pro mě osobně i co nejrychlejší smrt pro hlavní zástupce zla, násilí, lži, zlodějin a bezpráví. Hlavně v Moskvě a Washingtonu.

So this is the new America: We bully Ukraine and favor Russia, we resume selling arms to Putin, we threaten EU member nation Denmark with territorial annexation, we plan a Riviera in Gaza, we bomb Venezuela, and we make it our doctrine to support Putin’s 5th Columnists in Europe.

All I want for Christmas is Russia to collapse. Is that so much to ask?

Having negative cash flow is winning in his world? 😂

Non-frozen Russian assets in EU.

Pěsti ve světle

Hrůznost naši situaci vystihuje prostý fakt. Portugalsko nebo Malta garantují půjčku Ukrajině na její přežití. Bez jakékoliv zkušenosti s ruskou rozpínavostí. Po ulici Prahy, Budapešti nebo Bratislavy jezdily střílející tanky a zabíjely lidi. Ztratili jsme paměť nebo rozum?

Pretty amazing the Belgian PM is doing victory laps after shifting the burden of supporting Ukraine from Russian taxpayers completely to EU taxpayers.