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@pmarca on why God models don't eat all AI usage:
"There's one version of the world in which you have a small number of what we sometimes call God models... millions of processors, with billions or hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars of CapEx and training, investment behind it."
"That's the equivalent of the world of search that we've been in for the last basically 20 years."
"There's another scenario, what they sometimes call a race to the bottom, which is no, actually what happens is intelligence commoditizes."
"The analogy there would be maybe what's happened in the microchip market... A really good one costs a few thousand dollars, there's companies like Arm that sell them for pennies. And you can put a microchip in anything, and it's super cheap, and everybody does it."
"My guess basically is what we're about to see is something a lot like the microchip or the internet."
"You'll be able to basically summon intelligence at some level into any application you need for basically very cheap or ultimately basically the same as free. And then you'll have the God models in the background when you need the super genius, but for most things, you don't actually need a super genius."
Good take
My guess is
- demand for intelligence is near infinite
- but 80% of workloads will be running on 99% cheaper models within 12-18 months
- 20% of workloads will still run on latest gen models where IQ maxing is important (scientific breakthroughs, higher level ochestrator agents?)
- rough analogy might be what % of macbooks or gaming PCs sold have the maxed out specs for CPU/GPU, prices are falling much faster than Moore's law here though
- this leads me to think the limiting factor will be energy and compute, not better models
At Coinbase we're working hard on routing prompts to cheaper models where appropriate, and in some cases have been able to keep costs roughly flat, while token usage continues to grow exponentially.