winning founders are slightly delusional in a specific direction.
they think what they're building is already inevitable while everyone else thinks it's optional.
being right about that gap is most of the job.
Prediction markets are more than prices. when people bet real money on what happens next, they're telling you how certain the world is about it.
So i built the World Certainty Index — a live read on how predictable each country's near-term future is.
One thing WCI is not: a safety, stability or a peace score. a country at war can read as "certain" if everyone agrees how it plays out. a calm country with a coin-flip election reads as "uncertain." it's measuring whether we collectively believe the future is settled — not whether it's good.
Built on @Polymarket
built a tool on top of prediction markets data to measure how predictable each country's near term future is, according to people betting real money.
wci