Buy-side business analyst in @InvertirDesde0 🧐 | Focus on moats, micro caps and gold royalties, why not? | I never skip leg day.
Joined July 2017
- Tweets 4,606
- Following 316
- Followers 8,539
- Likes 5,385
1,896 Photos and videos
SaaSpocalypse is oficially over guys!
Bending Spoons $BSP - somewhat a $CSU.TO copycat - seeks to raise $1.5 billion in its IPO, implying a valuation of $20 bn
This would represent a ~29x EV/Adj. EBITDA 2025, but this multiple is rather useless due to add-backs and it will be significantly higher in 2026...
2
27
3,798
I think that $CSU.TO will be a winner of the AI era because of things like these:
- Don't underestimate the power of people sharing ideas
- We have companies in our group like Yonder who have been using AI for over 10 years
- raia has a platform that lets your whole team deploy AI agents faster with the governance, oversight, and infrastructure enterprise teams need
- What's striking is just how broadly AI has now spread across the group
3
6
56
5,902
Source: linkedin.com/posts/richard-p…
Richard Partridge is the Head of Technology in Newline, the leading supplier of auction software to the livestock market industry in 🇬🇧 🇳🇿 🇮🇪
If they're excited about AI in this vertical 🐄🫶, imagine what CSI can do in all other verticals 💪
4
622
I believe $CSU.TO will emerge as a winner of the "AI era", not only because organic growth remains positive, but because IMO they will keep its current (crazy) pace of acquisitions for the next few Qs, because they are benefiting from a "triple tailwind":
1. Fewer bidders for large acquisitions (PE running towards the exits)
2. Maturity wall coming in 2027-2028 (Forced sellers)
3. Lower multiples (at least in public cos.)
Each of these three points will result in more deals 💰💰💰
Recent examples: Synamedia (owned by Permira) and Finastra (Vista)
cc $TOI.V $LMN.V h/t @zeroxpectation for mentioning the "PE collapse"
7
11
125
14,630
Another example, a carve-out from Travelport, an overleveraged GDS owned by Siris & Elliot with CCC credit rating ☠️
2
872
This quote sums up pretty well why $CSU.TO M&A is firing on all cylinders:
"The speculative era where software companies commanded unjustifiable valuations is coming to an end. This opens up a fantastic window of opportunity for us to acquire great, sustainable businesses that might have previously opted for short-term financial buyers."
2
8
99
34,051
Cora Group carves-out banking assets from Finastra (a company owned by Vista EP)
Seems like a significant acquisition for $CSU.TO.
Claude 🤖 estimates $130-230MM in annual revenue, a ~30% EBITDA margin and between 500-900 employees
Finastra is - probaby - another forced seller, with 5x Net Debt / EBITDA and a B3 credit rating (almost at the bottom of the HY)
Keep'em coming!
1
7
55
13,736
$LMN.V announced a significant carve-out from Synamedia
They are acquiring the "Video Platform" segment, a declining asset, with Synamedia's management forecasting a -1.4% EBITDA CAGR over the next years
Synamedia is - probably - a forced seller. Is a company with an overleveraged balance and losing money year after year, and paying SOFR 6.5% on its senior debt ☠️
Hopefully, LMN will be able to stabilize and optimize the business, a classic $CSU.TO turnaround story
5
5
70
5,923
$CSU.TO carves-out transportation assets - again - from $CNDT for $164M
They might be buying the "Transit Solutions" segment that generated $371M in revenue in 2025, implying a ~0,4x Sales multiple
CNDT is a forced seller due to an total disaster in the implementation of $1 billion transport contract in Melbourne 🇦🇺
Victoria Auditor-General's Office issued an embarrasing audit in March 2026, basically blaming CNDT (overly optimistic delivery schedule; lack of colaboration; performance issues... you name it)
Now the adults will take charge
3
9
90
20,264
Fun facts:
Some of the delays and cost overruns were caused by the ineptitude of the Department of Transport and Planning (DTP), which, among other things, was unable to deliver the source code to $CNDT that was needed to run the new myki reader devices
"Many subcontractors were used to deliver and support the original myki system" => I bet that DTP's contracts did not include the delivery of the source code to DTP and/or that some of these subcontractors no longer exist, so some parts of the code have probably been lost
"DTP's initial approach to the disputes was adversarial and transactional" ⚔️
"DTP did not collaborate to resolve unforeseen risks and issues" 🤷♂️
DTP is offseting some of the cost overruns with "unclaimed myki card balances and interest from those balances" 🥷
1
443
$ACP.WA published solid Q1 results:
• Organic growth ~6% (CC)
• New projects are contributing positively to organic growth (Public sector, finance, ERP...)
• Order backlog 13%
• Operating margin 330 bps YoY 🤯
• AI-driven productivity boost (tbd; not quantifiable yet)
Seems that they're successfully implementing the CSU way 👀
Attaching factors contributing to the organic growth and margin expansion (via AI, I need to double check)
cc $TOI.V $CSU.TO
3
6
67
9,271
$ACP.WA shared a few interesting insights about what TSS ( $TOI.V ) brings to the table:
- "we are getting to know each other" ❤️
- Q1 results were not "inspired" by TSS, the merit belongs to Asseco
- Most of the learnings from TSS comes from the M&A side. The three TSS directors are also members of the investment committee
- They're also learning how to perform a smooth CEO transition. Adam Góral is 70 yo and he might be planning to step down soon
- They're working on a new remuneration and retention proposal (the previous one was taken down in the latest AGM)
cc $CSU.TO
3
19
2,631
Software is dead.
Long live software.
- PCE "Computer software and accesories" price index surged to a record 73% annualized increase
About 1/4 of the increase comes from memory prices ballooning, but what about the remaining 3/4?
My guess is that most of it comes from AI Token-based usage, but the good old software might have something to say here
Thougths? 🤔
May 22
Right before giving my seat on the Board of Governors to Chairman Warsh, I published a note with Federal Reserve colleagues, Alessandro Barbarino and Anthony Diercks.
We dive into software price trends, which have been a substantial driver of PCE inflation recently: (link next)
1
3
14
5,334
Dear 🇨🇦 followers, I'll be arriving in Toronto on Tuesday the 12th. Who's up for a coffee, beer, or whatever? 🤜🤛
And yes, I'll be there for the $CSU.TO AGM ofc 👀
DMs open
28
2,769
$TOI.V results are out cc $CSU.TO:
- 7% recurring organic growth ✅
- FCFA2S 2% YoY 🫤, due to lower changes in WC (noise), higher taxes and higher NCIs ⚠️
- Weak Q for acquisitions, with just €22.5MM (15 deployed 7.5 deferred) ⚠️
- €38MM deployed in acquisitions since the end of the Q1. Better than Q1 but not great⚠️
2
7
70
11,546