The reason not one Democrat has been able to moderate on trans inclusion in sports is that they are stumped by Chase Strangio's conundrum: moderating on sports would mean accepting and acting on the (true) premise that trans girls aren't real girls. (They are boys.) Any claim made in the sports domain also applies to all other sex-segregated domains. Contrary to claims made by would-be moderates on this issue, there is simply no way to give ground in any domain without acknowledging the basic falsehood at the foundation of a movement that exists to deploy state power to force people to affirm.
The transgender movement designed it this way, to permit no retreat on any front, by making its appeal based on a truth claim: "trans women are women." The advantage of this truth claim was that it resolved every question at once. The problem with this truth claim was that it was, in fact, untrue, and self-evidently so, such that it could not withstand any scrutiny and could only be upheld through a societal campaign of repression which it became the responsibility of the political party endorsing it to enact. All those seeking to triangulate on this issue are forever caught in this impasse, which is why no one tries to escape it, and those who do try find themselves quickly ensnared and unable to do anything about the deep unfairness that this agenda forces them to inflict on a generation of girls. As a result, there are male rapists and murderers in women's prisons across Blue America, and parents having their custody stripped from them by courts if they won't affirm a harmful falsehood that will leave their children sterilized, and millions of children being trained to hate and fear and seek to destroy those who reject false secular dogmas taught to them from the earliest age as the only truth.
There can only be a clean break wherein people admit that we have to stop propagandizing children to believe falsehoods, stop acting like it's morally compulsory to treat a falsehood as if it is true, stop punishing people for telling a truth, acknowledge that all of this is profoundly corrosive to the moral and epistemic foundation of a reason-based society in a way that matters to every other aspect of a reason-based order, and that in fact threatens the continuation of that order precisely because the institutions that are stewards of this reason-based order have become infected by it more than any other faction of society. The whole thing has to be scrapped.
Of course we have no precedent for societal institutions going all in on such a self-evident falsehood and thus we have no roadmap for how to pull back in a way that saves enough face for those responsible for inflicting this on society to consider doing so. In the process of inflaming this ludicrous travesty of a civil rights movement, a subpopulation of hundreds of thousands of children have been memed into existence, told their lives depend upon the fulfillment of impossible promises that can never be true, told that the non-fulfillment of these impossible promises is a form of genocide, and as a result we already see members of this subpopulation routinely acting out in the form of murderous rampages planned or executed by mentally comborbid youth who were told that pretending to be something they are not would be the resolution of all their problems, and that the whole world not being compelled by law to participate in upholding the falsehood that they've been told their existence requires is violence.
This is the Democrats' -- and societies -- dilemma that it may or may not have the resources to solve.