I disagree. I used to see it like you until I went into business a month ago and started my own AI-Agent startup:
- the big ones (Google, Deepseek, OpenAI, Anthropic,...) give us the tools to build agents and specialised AI, but they do not build it themselves.
- you need someone to use these tools to build specialised AI that could "replace" white collar jobs. The models won't do a good job with proper instructions - RAG - Fine tuning etc.
- Those that are building it, aren't building anything to replace the people currently in those jobs: We are building tools they will want to use, tools that leave them some agency but also make their life a lot bettet. To put it short - tools that replace entry level jobs but not the big jobs they do, when they are out of the entry level position.
- it would be uneconomical to replace white collar jobs, no, no, you want your Agents to do most of their work, but a human with an agent will do a better job than an agent or human will alone - we build up on this - you need fewer employees, can do more work in fewer time - you pay us a part of your profit (~40%) but you get more profit and have lower costs - so it equals out - you only get benefits and get to keep your job. Companies that build the software will get rich - if you want to stay competitive, you have to use our software.
This is where it is going. Nobody will be dumb, to give their specialised software to anyone but people who are already established in the industries. You would lose a ton of money.
Mass joblessness will not help the companies that make AI and AI agents.
I see that it won't happen as a lot of people assume now.
What I see is that there will be Agent companies in the background, that will dominate industries, make billions and most people will never have heard of them.
white collar - blue collar - does not matter. The jobs that are least efficient when done by humans alone will fall. This is inevitable. These won't be that many though.
I actually see blue collar more threatened, as those employing blue collar workers, have a higher incentive to replace or agument them with AI to be more productive and get more out of them. Also they have a lot of money to do so. White collar already has more moeny, they won't allow to let that go - nobody wants that - everyone will lose in that situation.
Also - true AGI is still 5 to 7 years off - listen to Yan Lecun and Demis Hassabis... adoption will take another 3 to 5 years... in that time robotics will be equally good as AI...