The DTC version of "hot theme vs. most valuable company" chart broke because it's 2024 and everyone's a founder. Metaverse was hot. Web3 was hot. But the real hot theme? Everyone pretending they're not the VC.
I tried to make the DTC version of that “hot theme vs. most valuable company started that year” chart. . .
And it broke.
The original chart works because the hot theme and the actual winner are different.
Metaverse was hot. Perplexity mattered.
Web3 was hot. Anthropic mattered.
Scooters were hot. Deel mattered.
Classic “everyone was looking over here while the real company was being built over there.”
But DTC is weirder.
In DTC, the hot theme and the biggest winner are often the same thing.
Warby Parker was the Warby Parker model.
Dollar Shave Club was subscription commerce.
Allbirds was DTC brands.
Rhode was celebrity beauty.
David Protein is protein everything.
So the lesson isn’t:
“Everyone chased the wrong thing.”
It’s worse.
In DTC, everyone chases the RIGHT thing.
And most still lost.
. . .
𝗢𝗡𝗘 - 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘀𝗻’𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺
DTC operators love to make fun of old hype cycles.
“Remember mattress-in-a-box?”
“Remember every brand calling itself the Warby Parker of X?”
The themes were directionally right.
Consumers did want simpler buying experiences.
They did want better design.
They did want subscription convenience.
They did want founder-led brands.
They did want better-for-you products.
The insight was not stupid.
𝗧𝗪𝗢 - 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝗱 𝗮 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿
But the failed brands stopped at the aesthetic.
The winners had another engine underneath.
Warby had vertical integration.
Dollar Shave Club had a memorable wedge and distribution.
Oura had data.
The Farmer’s Dog had retention.
Quince has supply chain compression.
𝗧𝗛𝗥𝗘𝗘 - 𝗗𝗧𝗖 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀𝗻’𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺𝗲. 𝗜𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗲𝘅𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺𝗲
That’s the part founders miss.
Being early to a trend is not enough.
Being on-trend is not enough.
Being beautifully branded is definitely not enough.
The question is:
Can you turn the theme into repeat purchase, margin, distribution, and enterprise value?
Because in DTC, the market often tells you exactly where the opportunity is.
But you still have to execute!