The Strategic Dilemma of Ukraine: Project Choices and Historical Continuities:
- The key task for Ukraine today in all these Alaskan tales is to preserve political independence in the long term.
Despite the shared symbolic capital with Russia and Belarus, there are evident fundamental divergences in views on rights and freedoms, and on what is proper and possible in forms of political organization.
The inevitable paradox is that within the framework of a narrow, nationalist project, Ukraine has not preserved these views but has lost them (in practice), becoming maximally similar to Russia and Belarus, adopting the form of an authoritarian dictatorship - an excessive trait of shared historical roots, stemming from Byzantium.
Russia’s fundamental decision to convert symbolic capital into political capital, i.e., the forcible seizure of former imperial territories, and the collective West’s refusal to share symbolic capital with Ukraine (we are not considered part of Europe and have been denied entry into the EU and NATO), raises the question of the prospects for the independence that still remains.
Ukraine has only one way to preserve it: acknowledging the shared symbolic capital with Russia and Belarus, adopting a neutral status, and building good-neighborly relations with Russia and Belarus while maintaining political independence and the unique role of a “crossroads of worlds”- between Russia and Europe.
Economically, the most promising role is that of a “steppe corridor” - between Russia, Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and the EU.
In short, this is about a fundamental shift in project orientation - from a narrow, nationalist one to a broad, transit-oriented one.
In a sense, this could be called a “Great Return” - to Ukraine’s natural historical and cultural role.
By way of analogy - modern Kazakhstan.
If this is not done voluntarily, the change in project orientation (the main directions of foreign and domestic policy and development strategy) will happen forcibly.
The timeframe is 10–15 years.
The cost will be the loss of political independence, and instead of Ukraine, there will be a federal district called “Little Russia”- with all the ensuing consequences for discussions about rights, freedoms, and distinctive features.
Any negotiations, any strategies that do not address this shift in project orientation are meaningless - truly, “bandages for the dead.”
Such is the choice, and such is the price.
In conclusion, the fundamental challenge for Ukraine lies not in tactical maneuvers but in recognizing the strategic perspective: the necessity of reimagining its role as a neutral, transit-oriented state in order to preserve independence in the emerging geopolitical order.