John O'Shea at uttaralabs.com.

Joined May 2009
30 Photos and videos
Arun retweeted
Ee Sala Nu Cup Namdu! ❤️‍🔥🏆 Welcome to the RCB Era, ladies and gentlemen! 😎 You waited, you believed and you stayed… this one’s for you again, 12th Man Army! 🥹❤️ #PlayBold #ನಮ್ಮRCB #IPL2026
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Arun retweeted
Episode 3. Rev Rec series. CFO: $5K Jan credit. Controller: $100 → $150. Sales VP: $8K discount. Audit: 15% constraint. Variable consideration overrides, governed. ASC 606-10-32-5. Cadel reads. Classifies. Reallocates. Posts with email cited. Inbox → GL.
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If I am building an AI App, my incentive is to spend the least in token cost on COGS not the most. And be generous with R&D spends [i.e. token budgets for teams]. Also, ARR is also a terrible metric - it forces one to underwrite the buyer's business' and hence become a quasi-VC.
Some solid Q&A on seat vs usage vs outcome pricing for AI. Clearly, no perfect answers but it def made me fine-tune my POV. Views: > marginal cost of s/w = 0; marginal cost of AI is not. That alone implies you HAVE to find SOME way to correlate price to usage/COGS. > "but AI labs all do tiered pricing" - actually all AI-lab rev is token metered which is why every tier has rate limits, caps, model gating, etc. Labs are actually the strongest case _for_ token/usage pricing. > variable cost / task, but customers want predictability; agree - but true only for tasks that have median & mode usage within striking distance; in AI, power users can use 1000x median and seat pricing on variable COGS is a disaster. Needs to be _very_ carefully planned. > I recall "runaway" usage as a huge issue when we launch bigQuery at GCP; knee-jerk reaction was to limit use; what made BQ a $10B biz was still usage pricing but paired with account budgets, threshold alerts, dry-run estimates. That's a better approach (but harder for long-horizon / unbounded tasks I'd admit) > "why not do outcome based pricing" - imho, this _is_ usage/token based pricing, just metered at a higher order unit. It works best, again, when median vs mode are similar. e.g. say sierra charges 2$ / resolution, and resolution takes 2min (cost = 0.2$) or 2hrs ($12), the lose on the 2hr call (v low vol) and make money on the 2min call (v high vol). Unbounded agentic tasks need to be metered on usage. My best guess is that the real uncapped promise & value in AI is on agentic tasks. There is this idea of agentic frontier where if you are more human-assist / co-pilot, you'd end up preferring seat-based but over time as you start solving agentic problems, which is the true value of AI lies, you'd end up above the frontier and shift to usage based. The more unbounded & agentic the problem, the higher the preference for usage pricing. Harvey may be sitting below the frontier today, but will eventually move above.
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IT budgets of medium growth firms like BFSI are $1T and they don't operate on an ARR model - they hate variable costs. So much of this ARR token spend is indistinguishable from crypto circle jerk
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Anthropic investors seem similar to ETH investors during peak crypto cycles where the entire point of apps above them is to enable extreme value capture at ETH layer.
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The same will happen to accounting. Everyone becomes an auditor/reviewer. And we get to real time close. ERPs become irrelevant along the way.
Enjoyed this piece on Stripe's Minions: an internal built end-to-end background coding agent “Over 1,300 Stripe pull requests merged each week are completely minion-produced, human-reviewed, but containing no human-written code”
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This is a likely model of how SAP and co gets screwed over by AI shops and data lakes. Since firms invest heavily in piping all data from sap into snowflake. ERPs _were_ the OG mothership which ran the enterprise. Not anymore.
Snowflake highlighting that companies are deleting software vendors and rebuilding workflows on top of their data in Snowflake Not sure they actually win this opportunity long-term, but interesting nonetheless
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Arun retweeted
By 2027 any IT services co without substantial same-day/next-day delivery offerings is ngmi.
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Selling a stock or not buying one are also important investment decisions
PMs don’t just ship features. They kill them. Shipping isn’t the job. Shipping the right product is. A great PM doesn’t fall in love with the roadmap. They fall in love with the problem and have the guts to say: This isn’t solving it. This adds complexity. This doesn’t matter. Every feature, setting, UI, element should fight to exist. At Nest, we had one rule: If you can’t explain why it matters, it doesn’t ship. You had to tell us the why. The reason a real person would care. That one rule killed dozens of features.
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Infosys also recently tied up with Claude. These firms' distribution is immensely valuable for OpenAI/Anthropic to hit their near-term revenue goals.
OPENAI TEAMS WITH CONSULTING GIANTS TO EXPAND ENTERPRISE AI: CNBC OpenAI has launched multi-year “Frontier Alliances” with Accenture, Boston Consulting Group, Capgemini, and McKinsey to deploy its enterprise AI platform, Frontier. The partnerships aim to accelerate AI adoption by combining OpenAI’s technology with consulting expertise, helping companies integrate AI agents into workflows faster. Frontier connects organizational systems and data, enabling easier AI management and deployment. OpenAI’s CFO says enterprises now account for ~40% of its business, expected to reach 50% by year-end. Consulting partners will build certified teams, offer strategic guidance, and work alongside OpenAI engineers to scale AI across clients.
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Claude code is designed like factorio. Except that you can make money now.
If you have fun doing it, it's play If you don't have fun doing, it's work Most try to make money doing the latter
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From 2002 - 2009, newspapers stocks went down in a straight line bc the market foresaw the disruption of the internet yet earnings continued growing for 5 straight years. until they didn't.
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In the first four years following the iPhone launch (2007–2011), BlackBerry (then Research In Motion, or RIM) experienced its highest revenue and earnings growth in company history. The Diffusion rate of Claude Code into the economy is also covering SaaS growth rates.
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If everyone's last mile is unique as George is saying, are you building a services firm or a platform one?
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Commercial banks started hiring Product Managers (in the software sense not loan sense) about 10Y after they became common in tech shops. Diffusion is everything. And is a lot slower than one thinks. AWS was invented in 2006~. Cloud is barely half of all compute after 20Y.
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I thought they’re all the same firm…
post agi there are only four types of companies: labs infrastructure systems of record services businesses
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API first is a story Sam and friends are selling so that their apps are the Sun around which other planets (and satellites) revolve around. API delivery model is not well suited for a world where the human verifies the output. Even Claude code is a CLI not an API
serious question, if everything goes api first what’s the actual business model for many companies? yah you can charge for usage. but over time, what durable value are you providing beyond being a glorified database some endpoints? the value will almost always accrue in the layer above you which is the agent / product that composes your api into a full experience. & if more people rely on your api indirectly (through agents), that just increases the odds you get disintermediated. obviously there are categories where the api is the product cuz it sits on real business logic, regulated rails, or state you can’t easily replicate. but in a lot of software, especially with ai collapsing business logic into prompts tool calls, api first feels less like a moat & more like a fast path to commoditization.
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His friends at Oracle make about $5B (and growing) per year on on-prem s/w like EBS. Cloud is just the segment that grows faster.
Feb 15
"Every company is now an API company, whether they want to be or not." @sama answers the question: "Is software dead?"
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Ramps AI adventures are a major distraction for the firm given AI will be lower margins and SaaS has been permanently re-rated. They can still become a bank or get acquired by one and be valued for those parameters instead of s/w ones.
Feb 13
Large chunks of the Anthropic pitch was basically we are going to do all of the stuff Ramp says it is going to do.
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Arun retweeted
Today it's logistics companies that are getting crushed by the AI scare trade. But here's what's weird. The company that announced the new AI freight product is not some advanced AI lab. It's some Florida-based penny stock that sells karaoke machines.
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