Traditional Thursday📊:
Let us take a look at the traditional markets today.
1⃣ The
$SPX, the
$RUT, the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones recovered from last weeks "dump", which is a good sign.
The are all in ATH regions, looking to go into a price discovery phase very soon.
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2⃣ One interesting chart is the RUSSEL2000 divided by the S&P500 (RUT/SPX) (pic 1)
Last year, we saw the lowest ratio since the dotcom bubble.
We saw a sharp downtrend since April 2021.
Since then, we stayed in a risk-off sentiment, due to QT, rising interest rates, etc.
That changed in the summer this year (or at least it looks like it for now, of course we don't have guarantees)
If we really formed a bottom in summer last year, we could see a more risk-on regime in the coming years, which of course
$BTC would benefit from.
Keep that chart in mind.
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3⃣ The
$IGV
The correlation between the Tech Software Sector and
#Bitcoin is undeniable (pic 2)
The
$IGV had a pullback at the same time as
$BTC, BUT there is a big difference.
The
$IGV put in a higher low and bounced of the 200 week moving average, with HUGE volume.
I think the software sector is not ready for a bear market yet, and with that
$BTC could definitely follow to the upside.
If the correlation continues, and the
$IGV is still showing strentgh, I expect
$BTC to do the same.
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4⃣ Gold and Silver
I think we all know about the
#Gold and
#Silver rally the last months/years.
A couple of weeks ago they both put in a (local) top. Since then they lost multiple trillion dollars in market cap.
#Gold is showing more strength than silver in this correction. It put in higher highs and higher lows since the crash.
I am not predicting anything, but I can imagine that
#Gold will not correct as hard as
#Silver.
I can imagine it putting in a more sideways action.
More and more people realize that their local currency is getting devalued from day to day, and
#Gold is the oldest hedge against that.
I think
#Gold will still thrive in the future because of that, we will see.
#Silver in the other hand is a different story.
It looks way weaker than
#Gold.
Lower highs and lower lows. Check the history of
#Silver, we know how these parabolas end.
BUT, I do think, that
#Silver will not retrace as hard as in the past. Physical demand is there and in the future it will not go away so quick.
But for now, the silver bugs have to give their spotlight away.
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5⃣ COPPER/GOLD
The famous ratio shows us, that we might enter the a strong economic season.
Less Fear (Gold strength), more productions (Copper strength)
Historically this has always been the perfect enviroment for
$BTC to thrive.
If the ratio flips bullish again, we could see a more risk-on enviroment (pic 3)
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6⃣ US economic expansion (pic 4)
We all heard about the ISM breaking 50 points a couple of days.
This signals a growth of the economy in the US. IF the ISM stays above 50 again when the new data is realesed next month (and better over 52.6), we can clearly say that this wasn't a fake out.
Another very good indicator is the HTRUCKSSAAR chart.
This chart shows us the heavy truck sales. If you produce much, you need something to transport that.
So when the truck sales go up, we know that production is rising too.
The good thing is, we had 2 month of uptrend now, which makes a fakeout very unlikely in my opinion.
Combine these two and we get a clearer picture of if the US economy is expanding or contracting.
And right now it looks more like a expansion, which will give us more of a risk-on enviroment.
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⏺️ Summary
Traditional markets looks strong for now and we are likely to enter a new business cycle for the US after years of contraction.
This will give Bitcoin tailwind and we could see a pumping Bitcoin even tho "we are in a bear market year"
This is not a guarantee for anything tho, we can only observe an access.
On next weeks Traditional Thursday, I will look more at bonds,
$DXY and the stocks of treasure companies.
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