链上玩家 /瞎分析乱喊单/交易最重要的就是耐心/相信自己就是最大的ALPHA/所有推文只是分享个人经历,不构成投资建议,盈亏自负

Joined March 2021
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polymarket中的大金额理财的鲸鱼输急眼了,给规则里没有的东西强加上去在辩解
Polymarket sharps are sure that this market will resolve to No Top 50 No holders have $8M all time Pnl combined, according to stats by @Poly_Helper We had similar situation before and Polymarket clarified it to No, that's why we see smarts on the No side I bought a little bit of No, but don't want to risk a lot
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这LP盛世如你所愿
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The so-called "8 straight wins" predictions are a scam that only requires 9 accounts. Each round, you bet one account on "up" and one on "down". You keep the winning one and discard the loser. After just 8 rounds, one account will inevitably have a perfect record. To you, it looks like a genius predictor—but it’s just simple probability trickery. And you don‘t lose a single penny
They created accounts back in 2024 in order to now in large bags withdraw money from Polymarket. I decided to check the on chain data of the last two wallets i analyzed. And what do you think? As expected, both of them were funded from the same Binance exchange account... Now I’m sure this is being done by the same group. This story really caught my attention, and now i want to dig deeper and understand what exactly they’re doing. Today i found another similar profile, and i’m pretty sure it’s connected to them as well: (polymarket.com/@amiecormierh…) I have a few theories, give me some time. But for now, it’s time for me to sleep…
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The Omani Foreign Minister:the official mediator—explicitly confirmed in a tweet that these were 'indirect talks' and the two parties never met. x.com/FMofOman/status/201970…

📸 | في إطار استضافة سلطنة عُمان لمفاوضات الملف النووي الإيراني، أجرى معالي السيد بدر بن حمد البوسعيدي @badralbusaidi وزير الخارجية، صباح اليوم مشاورات منفصلة مع كلٍّ من الوفد الإيراني برئاسة معالي الدكتور سيد عباس عراقجي، ومع الوفد الأمريكي برئاسة ستيف ويتكوف، المبعوث الخاص لرئيس الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، وجاريد كوشنر. ركزت المشاورات على تهيئة الظروف المناسبة لاستئناف المفاوضات الدبلوماسية والفنية، مع التأكيد على أهميتها، في ضوء حرص الأطراف على إنجاحها تحقيقا لاستدامة الأمن والاستقرار. وجدد معالي السيد وزير الخارجية التزام سلطنة عُمان بمواصلة دعم الحوار والتقريب بين الأطراف، والعمل مع مختلف الشركاء للتوصل إلى حلول سياسية توافقية، تتلاقى مع الأهداف والتطلعات المرجوة، معربا عن بالغ التقدير لجهود دول المنطقة الداعمة لهذه المحادثات.
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Visual Proof: Video shows the US team alone. No Iranians in the room. x.com/SprinterPress/status/2…

What does indirect negotiation mean? It means that; the two sides, Iran and US are not facing each other at all, each sits in a separate room and takes turns talking to the Omani representative. They write their demands on paper, then the Omani representative comes, collects the papers, reads them, and conveys the messages and demands of each side to the other.
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Official Source: Iranian FM statement explicitly classifies these as "INDIRECT TALKS." x.com/RyanRozbiani/status/20…

JUST IN 🇮🇷: Iran's FM Confirms U.S. and Iran Diplomats Shook Hands Abbas Araghchi: "There was no direct meeting, but we had an encounter - for diplomatic courtesy, when delegations arrive, there was a handshake and basic politeness."
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1000x ALPHA ALERT: The Most Mispriced Market on Polymarket Right Now. 🚨 Buy in for $100 for a chance to win $100,000 while standing up for the truth Whales are weaponizing their capital advantage to manipulate the UMA market and distort the truth. Reality Rules = HARD NO. The "No" side is trading at 0.1. This is a massive asymmetric opportunity to counter-trade a governance attack and profit from the correction. Here is the IRREFUTABLE PROOF why this whale is dead wrong. 🧵👇 $UMA @Polymarket @ShayneC #Polymarket #Crypto 1️⃣ THE VISUAL EVIDENCE OMANI FM CONFIRMATION The whale claims this was an "in-person meeting." Look at this video. 👇 This shows the US delegation sitting with the Omani mediator. ❓ THE CRITICAL QUESTION: Where is the Iranian team? They aren't even in the room! Even the Omani Foreign Minister tweeted explicitly that these were "indirect" rounds of talks. x.com/FMofOman/status/201970… Video shows separation. The Minister confirms separation. The Rules say: "Meetings where the relevant parties are not present and interacting with each other will not count." 2️⃣ MEDIA CONFIRMS: "INDIRECT" & "SEPARATE" Credible consensus kills the "Yes" thesis. The Guardian: Reports they were held in "separate talks" mediated by Oman. Reuters: Explicitly defines them as "Indirect nuclear talks" via mediation. AP: Journalists saw delegations arriving and leaving separately. If they are in separate rooms talking to a mediator, it triggers the "Third-Party Relay" exclusion clause. 🔗 Source: theguardian.com/world/2026/f… jpost.com/middle-east/iran-n… 3️⃣ The Iranian Foreign Ministry explicitly confirmed in an official statement that these were INDIRECT negotiations. x.com/RyanRozbiani/status/20… Official Classification: "Indirect talks via Omani mediation." You cannot have an "Official Diplomatic Meeting" when the government itself officially classifies the event as "INDIRECT." Rule triggered. Market = NO. 4️⃣THE PLAY: FIGHT BACK & WIN We are witnessing a clear Governance Attack. A whale is trying to redefine reality to steal liquidity. Fact: No joint meeting. Rule: "Brief greetings" do not count. The community needs to step in, buy the mispriced "NO", and DISPUTE this result. Don't let them rewrite the rules. Save the market integrity. Take the whale's money. @Polymarket @ShayneC This is a litmus test. Fix it. polymarket.com/event/us-x-ir… @UMAprotocol @yugacohler @VitalikButerin @unusual_whales @Domahhhh @zachxbt
What does indirect negotiation mean? It means that; the two sides, Iran and US are not facing each other at all, each sits in a separate room and takes turns talking to the Omani representative. They write their demands on paper, then the Omani representative comes, collects the papers, reads them, and conveys the messages and demands of each side to the other.
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🚨HISTORY IN THE MAKING: Will Written Rules Prevail Over Whale Manipulation on @Polymarket? We are witnessing a blatant distortion of reality on the "US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting" market. The UMA oracle is currently resolving "YES" despite irrefutable proof from BOTH the Host Country and the Iranian Foreign Minister that no direct meeting took place. Here is the breakdown of why this market MUST resolve to "NO". 1. THE RULES ARE ABSOLUTE (Read the Exclusion Clause)The market rules explicitly define what does not count: "Remote meetings... meetings through a third-party relaying messages... or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present and interacting with each other will NOT count." 2. EVIDENCE A: The Host Country Confirms "SEPARATE" Meetings 🇴🇲The Foreign Ministry of Oman (@FMofOman), the official mediator, published the event summary (see image below). The Official Record: The statement explicitly says FM Badr Albusaidi held "SEPARATE consultations" (مشاورات منفصلة) with "EACH OF" the Iranian and US delegations. The Visuals: Official photos show the Omani FM meeting the Iranians, and then meeting the Americans. There is NO photo of the US and Iran together. The Verdict: "Separate" means NOT together. This is the definition of "Proximity Talks," which counts as NO under the rules. 3. EVIDENCE B: The Iranian FM Confirms "INDIRECT" 🇮🇷In the attached video, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi explicitly characterizes the engagement as "Indirect Talks". The Mechanism: The US delegation sat in one location. The Iranian delegation sat in another. Omani officials went back and forth relaying messages. The Rule Check: This fits the market's exclusion clause ("meetings through a third-party relaying messages") perfectly. 4. THE MANIPULATIONUMA whales are voting "YES" based on headlines, ignoring the specific contract rules. They are trying to rewrite history to claim that two people sitting in different buildings constitutes a "meeting." It does not. 5. THE CALL TO ACTION@Polymarket @UMAprotocol, look at the evidence. Did they meet face-to-face? NO. Did they sit in the same room? NO. Did the host say they met separately? YES. You cannot allow the mob to redefine words to steal user funds. The official diplomatic record says "SEPARATE." The resolution must be NO. Market: polymarket.com/event/us-x-ir… Proof: x.com/FMofOman/status/201970… #Polymarket #UMA #Crypto #PredictionMarkets #Iran #US @Polymarket @heyibinance @Kalshi @opinionlabsxyz @shayne_coplan @hal2001 @NateSilver538 @VitalikButerin @balajis @mansourtarek_ @cobie @AdamMcNeil
JUST IN 🇮🇷: Iran's FM Confirms U.S. and Iran Diplomats Shook Hands Abbas Araghchi: "There was no direct meeting, but we had an encounter - for diplomatic courtesy, when delegations arrive, there was a handshake and basic politeness."
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Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? - No 15天是否伊朗政权会垮台,0.87的位置买了点,15天想要一个神权统治的政权垮台基本上概率小于1% 为什么我认为这是稳健的机会? 1️⃣ 这个盘口对“垮台”的定义极度严苛。它要求的是“伊斯兰共和国制度”的彻底终结。条款明确排除了:内部权力继承、派系政变、以及哈梅内伊去世后的同派系接替。 只要那块神权政体的牌子还挂着,只要核心结构没被“根本性不同的制度”取代,通通结算为 No。 2️⃣ 15天是一个物理极限: 历史上任何政权的“制度性蒸发”都需要时间窗口。现在距离 1 月底仅剩 15 天,目前德黑兰的互联网连接率依然维持在 1% 的“黑洞状态”,暴力机关 IRGC 并没有成建制倒戈的报道。在两周内完成“推翻制度 建立新宪法/临时政府 获得国际共识确认”,这在现实中几乎是 0 概率事件。 3️⃣ 我监控了一个伊朗货币的黑市价格,如果有异常就直接跑,黑市汇率是政权“血条”的直观体现。虽然目前通胀恶劣,但 1 月 14 日以来,汇率在 1,455,000 附近出现了抵抗。只要汇率没有进入无政府状态的“自由落体”,说明政权依然维持着最低限度的金融配给和军队控制力。只要还能发得出让士兵买得起面包的军饷,神权的大厦就不会在 15 天内瞬间消失。黑市价格会比预测市场更快,真的发生意外也来得及跑 历史上来说要进入恶性通货膨胀才会发生政权更替,伊朗的通货膨胀是高,但是还没达到恶性,比委内瑞拉低,马杜洛被抓了委内瑞拉都没有政权垮台,伊朗也是如此,所以买入 @Polymarket
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在马杜洛被抓的消息公开前两天, 这个低活跃度钱包悄悄买入了约 3 万美元。 48 小时后: → 盈利约 43 万美元 你看他的操作记录,先买了几笔小的试试平台和钱包 然后在内幕中直接重仓买入低概率事件 对于这种内幕钱包你不需要生气和嫉妒,而是应该开心 你是普通人没有内幕消息, 只需要顺着资金的脚印走。 有时候,优势不在预测, 而在发现 polymarket现在是sol的早期版本 sol的狗庄都不换钱包直接开新盘 poly的内幕钱包都不掩饰,直接一键买入 你需要的是进入这个市场的正确方式 找到低活跃钱包的异常交易 分析,然后跟着赚钱 而不是在15分钟btc里赌大小
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没想到一个这么基础的 Yes No < 1,也能讨论得这么热闹。 那我也来凑个热闹。 我一直以为这是大家的共识,但说实话—— 这是进入预测市场的必备基础,不懂真的别碰。 举个最简单的例子: 同一个市场,比如 BTC 15 分钟方向盘。 在这 15 分钟的第 1 分钟,BTC 下跌 盘口变成 40 / 60 你买入 40 的下跌(YES 下跌) 下一分钟 BTC 反弹 盘口变成 60 / 40 你再买入 40 的上涨(YES 上涨) 此时你一共花了 40 40 = 80, 而这个市场的最终结算是 100。 不管最后是涨还是跌: 一边赢 一边输 👉 锁定收益 20。 这本质上是一个类做市商策略。 但注意: 它不是必赚策略。 如果你第一笔买入之后, BTC 不反弹,而是一路单边走, 你就接不到另一边的单子, 仓位会直接暴露,甚至形成亏损。 那些“疯狂打印”的机器人, 只是把这个策略压缩到秒级甚至亚秒级, 每一秒都在做事。 这已经是速度和基础设施的竞争, 不是散户能参与的市场。 结论只有一句话: 这是一个赌波动率的策略,这是高速路上捡硬币 不是套利
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