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Joined March 2021
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Just a reminder about the importance of compounding
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It would have been nice to ask about Alex about 2021/2022. What was it like? What did you learn from those tough years? Seems like an obvious topic to discuss
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Seeing a stock going up 100% after you sold always feels worse than a stock on your watchlist going up 100%. There’s a lot that’s been written on what stocks to buy but knowing when to sell always seems tougher. Maybe it’s a sign of the times
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With Berkshire’s 350bn worth of cash, they can easily do the whole cap raise for SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI if they wanted. Kind of crazy to think about it given these are gonna be one of the largest cap raise in history of markets.
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The realisation of this unspoken truth hits pretty hard
"Once you're off the track, you're done." — a fund manager with an 18-year track record on what nobody tells you about a career in money management: Derek Pilecki (@gatorcapital) runs a financials-focused fund, 21% annualized, entire net worth in his own fund. Derek explains: "It's harder for small funds. A lot of the seats are quant based versus fundamental based. It's a more difficult industry." "You have to love investing. You have to want to wake up and read the Wall Street Journal as soon as you wake up." "If you lose your job anytime after the age of 32, it's hard to get another job. The business doesn't hire mid-career analysts." "There's a lot of people who get into the business and then in their thirties or forties have to go find another career." "There are things that people don't talk about. I've had a lot of friends who lost their job in their late thirties or forties and weren't able to find a new seat." "While the rewards can be great on the upside, it can really mess with you mid-career, midlife."
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My observation for AI in finance is that it’s not replacing existing tools like Bloomberg or Excel. If anything, everyone is asking for AI to connect these existing tools. Excel plugin to update my model. Bloomberg API to pull sell side research for deep research
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In the 1970s we had opec oil embargo, a watergate scandal and the Nixon shock where US dollar was no longer pegged to gold Today we have the Iran war, the Epstein files and a world where people have doubts about the US dollar as the global reserve currency. Scary times
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Thinking I should just buy what worked in 2022 Ukraine war. Fertilizer, shipping, defense Nutrien, CF industries Cosco, Maersk, Mitsui osk, nippon yusen Lockheed martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman
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Why are O&G stocks not going up more
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Basically Druck is the finance equivalent of Rick Rubin
Watch Hard Lessons, as legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller sits down with Morgan Stanley’s Iliana Bouzali, sharing how he would construct a portfolio if he had to start over today, why contrarianism is overrated, and which stock he regrets selling too early.
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Oh no, what have I done 🥲
Okay I can’t believe it but I’ve officially become a SaaS bro. Pls pray for me
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The new saas is service as a software. It sounds awkward but hear me out. “Service as software” = take something humans used to do as a service and encode it into software so it behaves like SaaS.
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Legal review → AI contract analysis Equity research → AI copilots Customer support → AI agents Marketing agencies → AI campaign generators
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“Service as a software” = turning human labor into a repeatable, scalable product
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It’s interesting to note that there was a time people thought that cloud computing aka IaaS was a commodity biz and all the value would accrue to the SaaS biz. The argument was anyone can provide compute/storage. It all sounded very logical at the time
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What people misunderstood was raw compute was just the base layer. The large scale cloud providers enabled ecosystem lock in with services on top on the infrastructure. Data, AI/ML, security. Reliability with 99.99999%.
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Still think about this even five years later
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Okay I can’t believe it but I’ve officially become a SaaS bro. Pls pray for me
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Why does Chris Hohn own visa but not mastercard
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