Stock P/E
BKT 46
Apollo 19
Ceat 17
One of the most common mistakes made by investors is looking at this data alone and saying:
“Avoid BKT and Buy Apollo & Ceat”
This is NOT even an Apple-to-Orange comparison.
Forget about Apple-to Apple.
Let's bust the myth here👇
The above example of BKT vs. Apollo Vs CEAT is a classic case of first-level thinking.
Howard Marks makes a compelling argument of first-level thinking vs second-level thinking in his newsletters to clients.
First-level thinking focuses on solving an immediate problem, with little or no consideration of the potential consequences. In Howard Marks' words, "First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it."
Most investment decisions need a deeper level of exploration, and this is the crux of second-level thinking.
So let’s make an attempt to wear the hat of Howard Marks here and explore second-level thinking.
Of course, the first-level thinking says BKT is expensive and Apollo and CEAT are cheap.
But let’s take a step back and ask, why does BKT trade at a higher multiple than Apollo & Ceat?
Let’s put some numbers here to get more clarity.
Anyone can deduce this from the above data:
BKT has the lowest revenue among all three. In fact, Apollo’s revenue is 2.5x BKT’s revenue. Yet, BKT’s market cap is 5x of Ceat’s market cap and 2X of Apollo’s market cap.
Rather than dismissing BKT as a highly overvalued stock, one should ask why there is such an anomaly.
That’s the start of walking on the path of second-level thinking.
While all three are in the business of making tires, you will appreciate the difference between them when we share more data points.
And what do we deduce from the above numbers?
Three major points:
1. Margins & ROEs of BKT are way better than Apollo and CEAT
2. BKT has a far better Balance Sheet with low debt and a high cushion of profits to serve the debt.
3. CFO/PAT is the only metric where Apollo and CEAT score drastically over BKT.
The next question that should come to your mind is this:
Why CEAT and Apollo have a higher CFO conversion of PAT than BKT?
The answer lies in the high depreciation.
Both CEAT and Apollo have had very high depreciation in the last 10 years with respect to the PAT they have generated in those years.
High depreciation reduces profits. But as depreciation is a non-cash expense, it does not affect your CFO. But high depreciation also means higher capex. Just having a higher Capex does not matter. It should reflect in terms of higher Sales, higher profits, and higher cash flow generation from operations in the future. This should eventually be reflected in the FCF generation over long periods.
Let’s have a look at that.
P.S. These are rough calculations. For example, Capex includes only assets purchased. We have not done the adjustment of assets sold as it was negligible in the larger scheme of things.
Now, this is interesting.
BKT having half the revenue of Apollo and slightly lower revenue than even CEAT, has invested the highest among all 3 in terms of Capex.
Also Depreciation numbers of BKT are higher than CEAT despite a similar scale and half of Apollo as scale is also half of Apollo's. But the interesting thing to note is that BKT produces far better profits to absorb this depreciation compared to the other two.
While the FCF of Apollo seems great at 11200 Cr compared to 2031 Cr of BKT and only 391 Cr of CEAT, the important point to notice is that a large part of this FCF is used for serving debt in the case of Apollo and CEAT, while in the case of BKT, it is used predominantly in strengthening the Balance Sheet.
So, now you understand how BKT is a superior business to Apollo and CEAT, even though all three businesses are in the field of manufacturing and selling tires.
Only with the help of studying the financials and asking simple logical questions as we have done above, you can also practice second-level thinking.
If you wish to know more about the business of BKT, we did a deep dive into BKT in 2021.
Nothing much has changed since then. So you can watch it even today.
BKT- Boring Business Steady Compounder [
youtu.be/MTxccQ_sUmw]
Please note that this is not a recommendation to initiate a buy on BKT at the current valuation.
Also, it would be foolish to believe that a stock that has been a 20-bagger in the last 10 years will again be a 20-bagger in the next 10 years. Starting valuation matters a lot. BKT for example was available at 6 times TTM earnings in 2013. Today it is at 46 times.
The purpose of the post was just to highlight how investors often make the mistake of just taking one metric to decide which stock to buy and which one to avoid.
They fall prey to heuristic-led thinking which is what first-level thinkers do. If you wish to learn from the greats like Howard Marks, try to become a second-level thinker.
Our team works really hard to come up with these differential insights on different businesses.
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Thank you for reading🙏