Research and idea generation largely focused on small & mid-cap biotech and special situations.
Joined May 2009
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Jun 9
$WOLF trading at a $3bn EV when sunk cost to build their domestic FABs was probably 2x that reminds me of when $SPHR was trading 50% below cost to build last year... stock up 500% off lows
Eventually someone will either shortcut domestic FAB w/ M&A or market will give credit
$Wolf down on semi analysis neg cpo take plus the crusoe pause doesn’t help sentiment when everyone on one side. But at 47 here and at its market cap this thing still prolly goes to 100 easy and has an m&a floor as word is some larger companies are sniffing around sic
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Jun 5
So whats on everyone’s biotech shopping list during this sell off
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Jun 5
Didn’t think it was possible but we finally found someone worse than Cramer
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Jun 3
Trump pumping up pools… Bullish for $LESL
Trump: I just had this done. *holds up chart comparing reflecting pool to buildings*
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Jun 3
We are now seeking a puzzle maker to help us create puzzles that LLMs can't yet solve.
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Jun 3
Ohhhh it’s only bullish when $ABVX buys back royalties ahead of launch 😂
I don’t think $MLYS lasts until their Dec PDUFA but we will see…
Mineralys $MLYS Prices $150M Stock Offering as It Moves to Strengthen Lorundrostat Economics Ahead of FDA Decision
prismmarketview.com/mineraly…
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May 27
Grok recommends $VRRM to some guy 4 days ago as its top pick for SMID cap stock… VRRM -70% today on large customer loss and concerns of AI reducing the stickiness of its service offerings.. AI just AI’d itself 😂
**Hey!** Great question. Small-caps are often overlooked by Wall Street, creating opportunities for those with strong fundamentals and rising institutional interest amid rate easing.
One that aligns well based on recent analyses is **Verra Mobility (VRRM)**: consistent 20% revenue growth, high margins (~61%), solid EPS trends, and a market cap around $2.5B with limited analyst coverage. Many small-caps like it are seeing institutional accumulation.
This isn't financial advice—markets move fast. Always do your own research, check latest filings, and consider risks. What sector interests you most?
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May 27
We own $QTTB as a spec 2.5% position ahead of AA readout next month… s/o to @hannibalspeaks who put this on our radar. the raise here is interesting, dilutive but don’t think it caps upside *too much* if it hits… seems like BVF, RA, and Orbimed approached them ahead of the readout looking to get a slice of the pie
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May 27
Google trends suggest $LESL search traffic is at a 4 year high relative to previous summer peak traffic. $30M Mkt cap / $1bn EV left for dead.. showed signs of life this Q w/ SSS % margin improvement -we believe equity stub has 5-10x potential if this summer's Q is a blowout
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May 26
I can’t tell if the Knicks are that good, or the rest of the East is that bad.
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May 25
$MRLN is an interesting name to follow, Autonomous Flight de-SPAC focused on retrofitting old planes as target TAM. Crossroads laid out a massively asymmetric (10-30x) bull case back in late March and the stock subsequently doubled - has now round-tripped on the back of a a heavily discounted PIPE to a single institutional investor around $7/sh. We used the pullback to initiate spec long position at $6/sh last week
Mar 23
The Long Duration Case for Merlin Labs
We see $MRLN as the leading candidate to become the operating system of record for defense-grade autonomous flight.
Read the full report and subscribe here: crossroadscap.io/insights/th…
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May 23
TLDR: There appears to be a "Sellers Strike" in equities in order to chase Real Yields >2% - and barring a GFC / COVID level crisis that creates a vacuum effect of folks rushing for the exits, it's going to take a LOT more than 5% bonds to convince equity longs to sell en masse
May 23
🧵It's incredible to look at the unprecedented macro situation we're in atm: Bonds at multi-year / decade highs, Inflation rearing w/ Oil over $100 a barrel, white collar unemployment teetering on edge with AI-driven layoffs, Iran, etc. and yet the stock market is at ATHs...
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May 23
🧵It's incredible to look at the unprecedented macro situation we're in atm: Bonds at multi-year / decade highs, Inflation rearing w/ Oil over $100 a barrel, white collar unemployment teetering on edge with AI-driven layoffs, Iran, etc. and yet the stock market is at ATHs...
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May 23
As laid out above, a 60/20/20 (Stocks/Bonds/Alts) port outperforms the classic 60/40 portfolio w/ a higher yield & lower vol over the last 3 years. What would it mean for Bonds if folks like Blackrock cut Bond exposure by half in favor of this approach? blackrock.com/us/financial-p…
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May 23
Plenty more to ramble on this but my short takeaway from Saturday morning coffee thoughts on macro situation is that Post-COVID era Bonds may not have the same effect on Equities, and as such, the headlines on rising Yields may not drive equity sell-off like they once did
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